December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[The Snowman]

My latest post, linking it here since the discussion on a warm December is reaching a fever pitch.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/long-range-outlook-cold-stormy-period.html

[Grizzcoat]

Thanks Andrew. Huge differences at  hours 162-168+ from the 18Z GFS and 12Z Euro Control.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol

[Maxim]

i think the winner is euro.

But if it was the other way around, then the GFS would be the winner...

[East Dubzz]

Still waiting for the major Thanksgiving time period snowstorm.

[GDR]

Still waiting for the major Thanksgiving time period snowstorm.

[GDR]

We got hammered with 1 -2 inches of snow

[WildWisconsinWeather]

We got hammered with 1 -2 inches of snow

 

It was too warm of a storm, but posters like Tom were technically right that we did see a major storm with a lot of moisture associated with it.

[james1976]

Wow, that was a warm GFS run. I gotta believe the models will adjust.

[Andrew NE]

Lots of moisture from coast to coast off of recent GFS runs, just no real cold to contend with.

[Madtown]

Wow people a week of average temps with a high Sunday of 37 with a rain snow mix is normal in dec. It can't always be 15 degrees.

[NEJeremy]

Cold and dry- sounds familiar!!

NOVEMBER WAS COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL IN OMAHA...THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM START AND A VERYCOLD MIDDLE...WITH TEMPERATURE SWINGS TO FINISH THE MONTH.  THEMONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 34.0 DEGREES WAS 5.0 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL AND THE 16TH COLDEST ON RECORD.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF0.22 INCHES WAS 1.42 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND THE 22ND DRIEST ONRECORD...AND THE MONTHLY TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2.4 INCHES WAS 0.1 INCHESBELOW NORMAL...THOUGH IT WAS THE HIGHEST NOVEMBER SNOW TOTAL SINCE2010.

[tim the weatherman]

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/stfeature120214-1024x833.jpghttp://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/11/FEATURE11302014.jpgeven the chicagoweather center believe into the cpc.

[GDR]

I have a gut feeling the cpc is onto something!

[NEJeremy]

Yeah look at the huge ridge the Euro and the CMC models are bringing in at the end of their runs. It'll be nice to have a break from the cold mid month

[Jaycee]

Honestly, I'm beyond happy with rain right now. It'd help moisten up the ground here and hopefully boast more systems potency out here rather than having our more recent "dry systems" that we've unfortunately been dealing with recently. The more precip, the better. I'd rather have rain now than later in the month as well, so bring it.

[NEJeremy]

Honestly, I'm beyond happy with rain right now. It'd help moisten up the ground here and hopefully boast more systems potency out here rather than having our more recent "dry systems" that we've unfortunately been dealing with recently. The more precip, the better. I'd rather have rain now than later in the month as well, so bring it.

 

We're doing fine for ground moisture. Sure it was dry in November, but we're nowhere near any kind of drought.

[BLIZZARD09]

that outlook by Skilling is depressing

[BLIZZARD09]

Stunning pattern about-face predicted in coming weeks; scope of predicted warming quite dramatic

by Tom Skilling Today at 1

 

That says it all. Skilling is not known for hyperbole

[Tom]

Stunning pattern about-face predicted in coming weeks; scope of predicted warming quite dramatic

by Tom Skilling Today at 1

 

That says it all. Skilling is not known for hyperbole

I wonder why...he is going off of the 06z GFS run!  He did this before in mid November and spoke about a pattern change that never came the week before Thanksgiving.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z parallel GFS has added a pretty cold shot of air early next week, in contrast to previous runs.

[Maxim]

The 12z parallel GFS has added a pretty cold shot of air early next week, in contrast to previous runs.

looks brief

[GDR]

Looks like the euro MJO is heading back to the warm side. If we don't start seeing some ridging by late next week forget about a white Christmas!

[Niko]

California is getting beneficial rains which is good news for their current drought and fires. Now, usually when California gets heavy rains this time of the year, to me that means an El Nino possibly forming??!!! Hope not. I was listening to my local radio station this morning and he was talking about a possible major warming trend by mid month where temps could be flirting with record territory. ( 60s!! much warmer south.) He also said that we might be looking at a 1982-83 winter, where that year was a disaster for any snowlovers out there.

I believe that the we will get some arctic intrusions this winter, but nothing like last year and snowfall will be at or below normal.

[GDR]

Let the roller coaster ride begin!

[NEJeremy]

I wonder why...he is going off of the 06z GFS run!  He did this before in mid November and spoke about a pattern change that never came the week before Thanksgiving.

 

Did he state somewhere that he is using ONE run of ONE model to make his prediction? I seriously doubt Skilling would do that. If so, he shouldn't have a job on a big news station....

[Tom]

Did he state somewhere that he is using ONE run of ONE model to make his prediction? I seriously doubt Skilling would do that. If so, he shouldn't have a job on a big news station....

After I read the full article, he did mention the Canadian and Euro models as well.  The map he posted was the 06z GFS run showing the warmth over North America.

 

I dunno, but I think the models are going through mayhem with the SOI crashing, SSW event occuring and the growing El Nino. which has warmed to +1.0C in the ENSO 3.4 region.

[gosaints]

The calling for cryptic cold may have been a little premature

[Tom]

The calling for cryptic cold may have been a little premature

Premature...ehh, maybe not.  Utilizing many of the accurate long range forecasting precursors suggest arctic cold is on the horizon.  What may be offsetting that is the ENSO 1.2 region that is still warm.

[Maxim]

Premature...ehh, maybe not.  Utilizing many of the accurate long range forecasting precursors suggest arctic cold is on the horizon.  What may be offsetting that is the ENSO 1.2 region that is still warm.

So what's your call for this month? 

[NEJeremy]

Or maybe, just maybe it's not going to be that cold!!! It's like the thinking here sometimes is if the models show cold and snowy, they are correct. If the models show warm weather, they are wrong. I know computer models are just model forecasts and the further out you get the more incorrect they can be and there are factors out there that the models don't look at. But the models and Tom Skilling for that matter(as far as I know) aren't winter weather nuts and don't have their forecasts sometimes skewed by their love of cold and snow   

[james1976]

Andrew is saying arctic outbreak mid-month. Skilling is saying a warming trend mid-month. Lol. Should be an interesting month regardless.

[Tom]

So what's your call for this month? 

It's a tough one, but if it is going to be purely analog based I'd say the first 15 days will average slightly above normal, then the back half of December will turn much colder and snowy.  However, if I'd use the other forecasting techniques then sometime around the 8th a colder/stormier pattern will evolve and that would last through the end of the month.

 

My personal feeling is that the models have been having a warm bias this season..sorta like last year.  Even though last year, the Pacific had a different SST arrangement.  If I were to make a call at this moment, the models will start showing more of an eastern trough around the 8th and beyond.

 

When you get that much warming to happen in the arctic regions it is a signal not to avoid.  We saw it back in late October and we all know how November turned out.  It's a pattern that will happen repeatedly this season.

[Tom]

Or maybe, just maybe it's not going to be that cold!!! It's like the thinking here sometimes is if the models show cold and snowy, they are correct. If the models show warm weather, they are wrong. I know computer models are just model forecasts and the further out you get the more incorrect they can be and there are factors out there that the models don't look at. But the models and Tom Skilling for that matter(as far as I know) aren't winter weather nuts and don't have their forecasts sometimes skewed by their love of cold and snow   

Maybe my cold bias behavior is coming into play, however, the overall pattern that we have endured in the past 2 months suggest the cold and snowy pattern to continue.  Sure we are experiencing a relaxed tranquil period, but its only "normal" to have nature reload the pattern and the temps near the Lakes/Midwest are still below normal today thru Thursday!  I know the Plains are much warmer than our region and your area is just not in a geographically prime location to see sustained cold/snow as the mountains can play a big role with down sloping winds.

 

Regarding Skilling, I think he likes the extreme weather patterns and doesn't mind the snow and cold.  Maybe last winter has gotten to him a bit but overall I find he enjoys winter weather.

[Tom]

I remember back in November, I posted comparable maps of the GFS 2m temp's being forecasted for Dec 1st from 5 days out and 10 days out.  It showed a clear trend of a colder pattern as we got closer towards Dec 1st.  How did the temps turn out for Dec 1st????  Complete opposite from the Plains to the Lakes than what the GFS was showing.  It had a torch for our regions.  I think people on here forget that model's bias to quickly and jump on the "warmth" train to fast.  

 

Meanwhile, I'm here in AZ enjoying the 70's over the past 5 days and expecting to come back home sometime early next week.

[winterfreak]

When there's impressive positive departures showing up in northern Canada you know it's going to be warm. Really pretty simple. Very el nino looking. I'm guessing at least half of December stays mild if not longer. This winter will definitely be a step down from last year but that's to be expected.

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like cwe have a strong ssw event going onhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif in the arctic and siberia all the way to nw canada.

[Niko]

Believe it or not, I still have that harsh winter from last year inside me, so the break we are getting now, if you will, is a nice treat. My average high is 38F and average low is 27F and my expected highs and lows are right on the spot. So, its seasonably cold for my area. This kind of weather is a given in putting up the Christmas lights, going shopping, building a home and etc.

Waking up last year in -10 to -15F or colder with feet of snow piles was a real pain in the neck. Everything was covered in snow for months. I had almost forgotten what grass looked like. The trees were bare even into May with winter not letting go. Flurries were flying on the 4th of May last year. The lakes had ice right into July. Incredible, just incredible.  Hardly catching a break. Yes, the endless Winter of 2013-14 will be remembered for a long time to come.

[Maxim]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-322-0-54045400-1417539680.png

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-322-0-01506300-1417539682.png

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-322-0-50825200-1417539683.png

[Maxim]

GFS seems to be a bit more aggressive with the torch than most other models though.