December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

The warm-up will be more noticeable at night than in the day. Temps will not dip down all that much at night.

[gosaints]

warm or cold it looks beyond boring

[Maxim]

if it's gonna be dry then we might as well be in a blowtorch pattern. Nothing is worse than cold and dry (except 33 and rain maybe)

[BLIZZARD09]

if it's gonna be dry then we might as well be in a blowtorch pattern. Nothing is worse than cold and dry (except 33 and rain maybe)

exactly-if there is no snow on the ground , what good is the cold

[Geos]

0z EURO pushes the warm air back even farther.

 

Still 850 MB temps around 0 at HR 192 (12/13) around ORD/MKE etc 

 

The vast snow cover across Canada is being ingested into the EURO model. The cold air is likely a bit deeper over the snow covered areas; for this point in the season, of the continent and other models have to take that into account. 

 

I think at some point before the 15th there is going to be an over-running event with every wintry precip. type somewhere in the Midwest.

[gosaints]

possible freezing rain signal showing up on the GFS sunday night

[tim the weatherman]

exactly-if there is no snow on the ground , what good is the cold

even if there is no snow on the ground you still can get the cold.

[tim the weatherman]

The vast snow cover across Canada is being ingested into the EURO model. The cold air is likely a bit deeper over the snow covered areas of the continent and other models have to take that into account. 

 

I think at some point before the 15th there is going to be an over-running event with every wintry precip. type somewhere in the Midwest.

i'm thinking that matter of time before the ao is going negative so that means the jet sream will buckle into the united states and also what is the state of the ao pna epo and wpo.

[Maxim]

even if there is no snow on the ground you still can get the cold.

Are you illiterate? NOBODY ever said that you couldn't get the cold if there was no snow on the ground. We were just saying that cold weather without any snow would suck.

[Money]

So, the 12z GFS is a little different in the longrange....

[Money]

Big snowstorm for Nebraska with a huge storm system and then cold air pouring in after (around HR 240) even before that it doesn't get above 40.

[Tom]

Nice lil trough setting up over the Lakes/East early next week.  Might get some surprise snowfall outta this.  Nice way to hype a warm up, right?  12z GFS turning colder next Tuesday with highs in the mid 20's I-80 on north.  Teleconnections/MJO working its magic for eastern CONUS mid/late next week.

 

BTW, yes its Fantasy Land BUT the GFS may be finally seeing the REAL pattern that is setting up here for mid/late next week and beyond.  Over the last 4 runs of the GFS, the model kept getting colder for the East, now it may be starting to sniff out the mid month pattern change into a consistent cold/stormy pattern.

[Money]

It shows another system from the gulf around the 19th-20th that produces a large area of snow in IA/W. IL/MN etc

[Tom]

Anyway, I think if the Euro comes in with a colder look in the extended from previous runs, you can write off any Hype about a blow torch for the Eastern CONUS by the 12th and beyond.

FWIW: 00z GGEM also showing more cold funneling into the eastern CONUS Day 8-10.

 

 

[Money]

GFS shows 2 days above 40 degrees in WI/IL (15th/16th) and that's when the big cutter is moving through W. WI. 

[gosaints]

Hopefully on to something.  Havent model watched in double digit days.  need something to track

[tim the weatherman]

Anyway, I think if the Euro comes in with a colder look in the extended from previous runs, you can write off any Hype about a blow torch for the Eastern CONUS by the 12th and beyond.

FWIW: 00z GGEM also showing more cold funneling into the eastern CONUS Day 8-10.

this certinly beats tom skilling's forecast and cpc's too and about a blowtorch is hype and you can say goodbye to that.

[tim the weatherman]

and what does it looks like for ne il.

[Grizzcoat]

My o my did the GFS flip flip 240hrs and out. Couldn't even believe what I was looking at after seeing blowtorch for so many model runs in a row. Hopefully-- it's not just "one run"

[Money]

and what does it looks like for ne il.

 

The same. It hangs onto the cold much longer than previous runs. 

 

Here is the 12z on the 11th:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_T2m_us_27.png

 

Here is the 0z for the 11th:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120500/gfs_T2m_us_29.png

[gosaints]

and what does it looks like for ne il.

Ummm.  We are talking about what like 12 days from now.  It is impossible to say what is looks like for NE Illinois much less the midwest that far out.  

 

Good news is its starting to look like there could at least be a time frame to watch

[Tony]

Baby stepping in the right direction...will see what the models look like early next week but will definitely be nice tracking storms again.

[Tom]

and what does it looks like for ne il.

Still plenty time for that buddy, the key point here to grasp from the 12z GFS run is a remarkable flip (or shall I say a "Predictable Flip") in the long range.  ONLY 1 run, and first run to show this from that model, but if it can pull consecutive runs today of something similar you can then start drawing ideas of what to look for down the road.

[Money]

Still plenty time for that buddy, the key point here to grasp from the 12z GFS run is a remarkable flip (or shall I say a "Predictable Flip") in the long range.  ONLY 1 run, and first run to show this from that model, but if it can pull consecutive runs today of something similar you can then start drawing ideas of what to look for down the road.

 

Yup. Euro tried to form some sort of cutter on the 14th-15th as well last night. We'll see if that happens.

[Money]

I also remember last year whenever the models showed a warm stretch, it ended up fading away as we got closer. 

[tim the weatherman]

this absolutely getting excited on this fourm today.

[tim the weatherman]

I also remember last year whenever the models showed a warm stretch, it ended up fading away as we got closer. 

look what happen today with the models.

[Tony]

12Z CMC with regards to freezing rain next week. IA seems to be in the crosshairs on this one.....something to keep an eye on.

[Tom]

Yup. Euro tried to form some sort of cutter on the 14th-15th as well last night. We'll see if that happens.

I bet 50-70% of this forum was sweating each model run and thinking torch, torch, torch.  I know neither you or I was.  Anyhow, I think its a good trend to see so far today.  I'd like to see what the 12z Euro is showing.

 

I also remember last year whenever the models showed a warm stretch, it ended up fading away as we got closer. 

Exactly, and you can thank the warm NE Pacific waters for that.  Once those warm waters disappear, it won't get as easy to predict these trends in the future.  I think late next year we may see the +PDO start fading.  Although, that's another conversation at a later time.

[GDR]

Looks like some fridged air towards Christmas maybe we can catch some snow.

[Tony]

The same. It hangs onto the cold much longer than previous runs. 

 

Here is the 12z on the 11th:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_T2m_us_27.png

 

Here is the 0z for the 11th:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120500/gfs_T2m_us_29.png

If EURO comes anywhere close to these changes then it looks like we will be heading into a pattern change. Also pacific jet gets going in earnest next week and models are picking up on it.

[Tom]

If EURO comes anywhere close to these changes then it looks like we will be heading into a pattern change. Also pacific jet gets going in earnest next week and models are picking up on it.

Some hyper activity is setting up over the Pacific and all you need is for these systems to cross the Rockies and explode over the central CONUS.

[gosaints]

wonder if the active pacific couldnt spin a juicy hybrid as well

[NEJeremy]

we've had a full week of above average temps shown on all of the models and we get one run of snow and immediately we're "hyping" up the cold. if you look back at the previous posts, there were several runs of a snowstorm from the 3rd-5th of December followed by highs not above 20 and some people were all over that saying, "that makes sense" according to this or that, and look how that turned out. no snowstorm or extreme cold.

also, people see above average and all the red on the map indicating the CHANCES of above average temps and people attach blow torch to those maps. those maps aren't temp maps, they're probability maps. it can be .5 degree above normal and that map verified.

i guess we'll just have to wait and see what mother nature decides to do. my money at least here in Nebraska is on above normal temps(not a blow torch) for the next 10 days

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.pngtrying to switch from positve to negative also look at the enso region.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Tom]

we've had a full week of above average temps shown on all of the models and we get one run of snow and immediately we're "hyping" up the cold. if you look back at the previous posts, there were several runs of a snowstorm from the 3rd-5th of December followed by highs not above 20 and some people were all over that saying, "that makes sense" according to this or that, and look how that turned out. no snowstorm or extreme cold.

also, people see above average and all the red on the map indicating the CHANCES of above average temps and people attach blow torch to those maps. those maps aren't temp maps, they're probability maps. it can be .5 degree above normal and that map verified.

i guess we'll just have to wait and see what mother nature decides to do. my money at least here in Nebraska is on above normal temps(not a blow torch) for the next 10 days

I guess you can say some were saying Winter's never coming back this month which is non sense.  I personally did think we would see more blocking by now according to the LRC but it hasn't showed up.  Back in late October there was a lot of blocking and if you utilize the 42-43 LRC cycle, I made that prediction.  Even back then in October, the Plains were much warmer than the Midwest/Lakes region.  

 

Temps were being forecast to be 10-15F above normal on both the EURO/GFS/GGEM for late next week around our region and that clearly just doesn't fit the overall pattern.  Hense the reasoning behind my posts yesterday that this shouldn't happen.  Today may be the start of a trend in the models to back off the warmth hype.

[Tom]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.pngtrying to switch from positve to negative also look at the enso region.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Nice maps Tim!  Look at that warming trend in the NE Pacific, cooling near the Bearing Sea and from Cali south to Baja.  That to me says "Winter Lovers Dream"....

[tim the weatherman]

I guess you can say some were saying Winter's never coming back this month which is non sense.  I personally did think we would see more blocking by now according to the LRC but it hasn't showed up.  Back in late October there was a lot of blocking and if you utilize the 42-43 LRC cycle, I made that prediction.  Even back then in October, the Plains were much warmer than the Midwest/Lakes region.  

 

Temps were being forecast to be 10-15F above normal on both the EURO/GFS/GGEM for late next week around our region and that clearly just doesn't fit the overall pattern.  Hense the reasoning behind my posts yesterday that this shouldn't happen.  Today may be the start of a trend in the models to back off the warmth hype.

this sounds like the models is cha

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/151_3.jpg

nging it's tune in favor colder pattren instead of a warmer pattren with a blowtorch with it too.

[Money]

we've had a full week of above average temps shown on all of the models and we get one run of snow and immediately we're "hyping" up the cold. if you look back at the previous posts, there were several runs of a snowstorm from the 3rd-5th of December followed by highs not above 20 and some people were all over that saying, "that makes sense" according to this or that, and look how that turned out. no snowstorm or extreme cold.

also, people see above average and all the red on the map indicating the CHANCES of above average temps and people attach blow torch to those maps. those maps aren't temp maps, they're probability maps. it can be .5 degree above normal and that map verified.

i guess we'll just have to wait and see what mother nature decides to do. my money at least here in Nebraska is on above normal temps(not a blow torch) for the next 10 days

 

It's not "one" run. You can clearly see the trends on the EURO with it trending colder each run.

 

Here is the last 3 runs of the EURO (0z) (oldest of the 3 on the top)

 

HR 216 (0z DEC 3)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120300/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

HR 192 (0z DEC 4)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120400/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

 

HR 168 (0z DEC 5th)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

 

Notice any difference?

 

Oh, and:

 

0z HR 240 (DEC 4th)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120400/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

 

0z HR 216 (DEC 5th)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120500/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

As we get closer to the events, the models have trended colder. That's a fact, and Tom has pointed out why that is numerous times and not to believe in the warmth that they were showing in the long range.

[Jaycee]

Not to change the subject, but this video is crazy. Never really heard of needle ice before until I stumbled on this video. I can't even begin to describe this phenomenon, it's pretty unreal. Can't imagine what that must look like in person!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FE_5qseGPg