December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

So wants going on, cold or warm? Rain or snow? White or brown Christmas?

[CentralNebWeather]

Let's hope the 00z brings back the storm trend in the extended.

[tim the weatherman]

So wants going on, cold or warm? Rain or snow? White or brown Christmas?

cold with snow and for a white christmas.

[Tom]

If you follow the LRC and want to use that as a tool for predicting the weather pattern for late next week/weekend...all you have to do is remember how Halloween was around here.  If you take Oct 31st and add 43 days you come to the calendar period of December 13th.  Taking into consideration how the teleconnections lined up back then to where they are being predicted now, both the PNA/AO are matching up fairly similar to where they were in very late October.  The only problem is a rather +NAO this go around which may be a problem.  Time will tell but maybe a blend between that severe early season shot of cold to a more modest brand seems reasonable.

[Tom]

FWIW, I looked back at the old posts in October/November and the last few days of October and first 4 days of November the CPC was predicting a huge area of above normal chances for our region.  How did that end up???  Time will tell this go around. 

[bud2380]

It would be fun to track a storm before Christmas. I'm a bit concerned about an El Niño pattern setting up though. Maybe it will stay weak enough to keep the mild air at bay.

[Geos]

0z GFS really holding the chilly air in the Great Lakes and East through 192 hours. Couple mix type systems - one on Monday and then Thursday night.

 

Warm up in this region is confined to two days - the 14th and 15th and then it's back to normal and below normal through Day 16.

[Grizzcoat]

It's back mainly  for / W.IA and S.MN -- 48 snowfall from hours 192 to 240 from 6z GFS-- at least it something to look at it for now.  Euro shows a regime change when it comes to temps and hints at a storm-- but none yet. Andrew from the Weather Centre may score a coup after all....

 

[WBadgersW]

Some torch we are having/getting...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Some torch we are having/getting...

 

This week wasn't supposed to really be a torch to begin with, I never saw mid 40s or above in the forecast.  That being said, the warm up seems like it's being pushed back further and further, so perhaps it's prudent to expect a one or two day warm up or 'torch'.

[NEJeremy]

This week wasn't supposed to really be a torch to begin with, I never saw mid 40s or above in the forecast.  That being said, the warm up seems like it's being pushed back further and further, so perhaps it's prudent to expect a one or two day warm up or 'torch'.

 

Exactly. There was prediction of above normal temps, but where do people keep getting torch from? What's normal for the Great Lakes this time of year, low to mid 30s?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Exactly. There was prediction of above normal temps, but where do people keep getting torch from? What's normal for the Great Lakes this time of year, low to mid 30s?

 

This week has basically been average though, with the exception of Monday (well below average), so even those who called for above normal temps this week as opposed to a torch would've failed.  Milwaukee's average is right around 36 or 37F for a high right now.

[WBadgersW]

This week wasn't supposed to really be a torch to begin with, I never saw mid 40s or above in the forecast. That being said, the warm up seems like it's being pushed back further and further, so perhaps it's prudent to expect a one or two day warm up or 'torch'.

Agreed. This is perfectly normal Temperature wise December.

[Tom]

+PNA/-AO should be able to keep pushing the warmer air back as we get closer towards late next week for the Midwest/Lakes and the models I think will respond to that.  By mid month, that's when things will start to look better for the broader area of the central/eastern CONUS if we can get the NAO to dip towards at least neutral territory.

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

i could remember that back in march and april of this year we were going back and fourth to see who's right and wrong about the warmth and the one thing that caused this was that stubbron pattern that lasted to may all because of the blocking on the west coast and alaska and i remember the cpc came out with their forecast being warmer did that happen no and i also remember that tom was seeing who's right and wrong with the what i said just saying deal or no deal and i said deal.

[tim the weatherman]

+PNA/-AO should be able to keep pushing the warmer air back as we get closer towards late next week for the Midwest/Lakes and the models I think will respond to that.  By mid month, that's when things will start to look better for the broader area of the central/eastern CONUS if we can get the NAO to dip towards at least neutral territory.

this means ridging to the west coast and troughing in central and east north america.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eCgs4AYzWjw/UKDL8shOS9I/AAAAAAAAAII/tprwyOjy6_U/s640/positive+PNA.jpg

[tim the weatherman]

-EPO trying to develop. (this was from a member from accuweather fourms).

[NEJeremy]

i could remember that back in march and april of this year we were going back and fourth to see who's right and wrong about the warmth and the one thing that caused this was that stubbron pattern that lasted to may all because of the blocking on the west coast and alaska and i remember the cpc came out with their forecast being warmer did that happen no and i also remember that tom was seeing who's right and wrong with the what i said just saying deal or no deal and i said deal.

Huh??

[tim the weatherman]

also by mid month the ao is going negative the nao is trending downward and the pna is staying positve and with the epo trying to go negative so that means is the polar vortex trending south so what is being said that the warmer weather is being trimmed down a lot.

[Tom]

Over the last 4 or more runs, the GFS is certainly trying to develop a blocking High near the Yukon/NW NAMER by Day 10 or so.  It's slowly becoming evident each run on the operational model.

 

Notice the sheared state of the PV as well across the Pole.

[tim the weatherman]

we might be looking at a major winter storm some where in the midwest into the ohio valley that could be negativly tilted by the 16th of this month if we get that ao to go negative by that time for cold air to come down to wrap in the system with that high to be to the north.

[tim the weatherman]

got a cold end to 2014.

[FV-Mike]

first of all that last winter went all the way to may a second of all you and the members needs to stop bashing me because you amnd them does not look at the forecast right instead believe in the warmer weather that is not going to happen and other members is had enough of you and other members that bashed me yesterday and today.

I don't think NEJeremy is bashing you at all. I read your statement and it is hard to understand. Don't want to be the grammar police but spelling and correct punctuation will help make your point

[bud2380]

LOL, this is a highly amusing thread.  Keep it up.  The GFS has been showing a storm in the 9-10 day range in several runs recently, we'll see if anything comes up. GGEM shows nothing, 12z Euro is showing something developing in the southern plains at hour 222, looks like it will stay south, but regardless something to possibly be on the lookout for. 

[tim the weatherman]

LOL, this is a highly amusing thread.  Keep it up.  The GFS has been showing a storm in the 9-10 day range in several runs recently, we'll see if anything comes up. GGEM shows nothing, 12z Euro is showing something developing in the southern plains at hour 222, looks like it will stay south, but regardless something to possibly be on the lookout for. 

according to tropical tidbits that the storm could go up to the ohio valley and also the storm centered over south texas.

[WBadgersW]

LOL, this is a highly amusing thread. Keep it up. The GFS has been showing a storm in the 9-10 day range in several runs recently, we'll see if anything comes up. GGEM shows nothing, 12z Euro is showing something developing in the southern plains at hour 222, looks like it will stay south, but regardless something to possibly be on the lookout for.

I don't care about the snow, I just want the cold!

[Geos]

I don't care about the snow, I just want the cold!

 

Well it looks like our region on the 12z EURO stays seasonable through 240 hours except for the 12th-14th where it will likely get into the 40s to near 50°. I'd hardly call that a torch. I expect more changes as we get closer to those dates.

 

Nebraska gets like an extra day of mild air, but midday Sunday a strong cold front pushes through.

[tim the weatherman]

also by the 16th models are showing a rex block too.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I don't care about the snow, I just want the cold!

 

You are in the minority with that opinion, seriously cold and dry sucks, who wants to be stuck in that?

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120612/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.pngcentered over north cen tx at hour240 ecmwf

[tim the weatherman]

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule still has the trough over East Asia for the next couple of days. A new shortwave will travel through there on the 8^th of December with a quick recovery on the 9^th and 10^th before another system comes through on the 12^th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front move through on the 16^th and 20^th of December with warming between.  The storms that have my attention are on the 15^th and 17^th in East Asia for those will give us a chance of a white Christmas.

The Bering Sea has multiple systems rotating around an upper level low until the 12^th of December when a system comes from the Southwest Bering Sea with a quick warming on the 13^th with snow and cold to follow for sure.  The Central Missouri correlation continues the below normal end of December with an early January above normal start before a strong storm, with major snow implications, hits us on the 4^th.

[Tom]

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The typhoon rule still has the trough over East Asia for the next couple of days. A new shortwave will travel through there on the 8^th of December with a quick recovery on the 9^th and 10^th before another system comes through on the 12^th.  This translates to Central Missouri having a cold front move through on the 16^th and 20^th of December with warming between.  The storms that have my attention are on the 15^th and 17^th in East Asia for those will give us a chance of a white Christmas.

The Bering Sea has multiple systems rotating around an upper level low until the 12^th of December when a system comes from the Southwest Bering Sea with a quick warming on the 13^th with snow and cold to follow for sure.  The Central Missouri correlation continues the below normal end of December with an early January above normal start before a strong storm, with major snow implications, hits us on the 4^th.

The Jan 4th storm he's talking about correlates well with the Nov 23rd/24th major storm that hit our region before Thanksgiving.  It's fascinating to see the LRC cycle back through in the Bearing Sea.  I think we would all like to see that storm have all the ingredients necessary to become a widespread snow producer to kick off January.

[tim the weatherman]

The Jan 4th storm he's talking about correlates well with the Nov 23rd/24th major storm that hit our region before Thanksgiving.  It's fascinating to see the LRC cycle back through in the Bearing Sea.  I think we would all like to see that storm have all the ingredients necessary to become a widespread snow producer to kick off January.

i agree

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gifwe are currently in phase 6 of the mjo.

[Niko]

Very seasonable today and for the foreseeable future. My forecast calls for highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Small chances for any precipitation, if any, very light. I have a feeling we will pay the price down the road with heavy snows and arctic air masses, so lets all enjoy this seasonable weather we are experiencing now.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/gomssta.pngit looks like the gom is rapidly warmed so this is a winterstorm lovers dream.

[The Snowman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/gomssta.pngit looks like the gom is rapidly warmed so this is a winterstorm lovers dream.

May be a double-edged sword, as moisture content theoretically increases in addition to surface heat. Any storm systems may retain enough heat to cut down on snowfall (exactly to what degree is in question and likely can never be quantified), should this actually be a factor.

[GDR]

Next week is looking like a warm one for December! 43 52 58 and 63 I wouldn't call that normal!

[Iowawx]

Doesn't seem like there's going to be any snow on the ground here in Iowa by the time my birthday comes around (December 15) and the odds of a white christmas appear very low. 

[GDR]

Yeah I would say the odds for Iowa are not looking good