Scott26 Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 0z GFS coming in much slower with the northern stream through 72Big time difference with the southern stream at 93 hours as well. The northern stream is slower while the southern stream is definitely further east. Lets see if this can phase earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 0z Parallel is gonna be a bomb. Even more so than 18z. Maps coming soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Here is 18z at the same time period: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121818/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png Gonna be a huge hit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z GFS Par cutting farther west a little bit this run...also seems the southern stream energy becomes the main event... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_asnow_us_23.png With 12 more hrs to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z GFS Par took a big step in the right direction...hoping the updates the U.S. Gov't are giving this model are providing us with good modeling. Time will tell how well this model handles this storm. TBH, this is kind of what I am expecting with this system. The southern energy coming out of the Gulf usually ends up becoming the main player in systems like these. Hope to see the Euro show something similar. Not going to get excited till I see some consistency over the next day or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Huge changes in the 0z GGEM. Showing a much stronger southern stream system at hr 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 HR 120 Lot of precip around the southern stream storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Total snowfall on P GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121900/gfsp_asnow_us_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wow! Look out Plains! Beautiful Colorado Low in the making. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 0z UKIE HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif HR 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 What a whacky run on the 00z GFS Op...it basically runs into a roadblock and retrogrades the system back down into the Upper Midwest 4 days later...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 So that's UKIE/P GFS that phase the system and takes it up near L. MI while OP GFS, and GGEM is farter east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 What a whacky run on the 00z GFS Op...it basically runs into a roadblock and retrogrades the system back down into the Upper Midwest 4 days later...lol There is something wrong with that run. The moisture with this system should be much higher than what the models is showing.The Gulf is wide open... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Well the second system takes a decent track but rather weak. Model watching is consuming a large portion of my free time lately lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 What i do like about the 0z GFS run is that it shows better snow for Iowa when the Low first arrives into the area. After that it seems to go all over the place. This may end up being a nowcast event. I mean, how does one go about forecasting a cutoff low? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ensembles are the way to go to try and figure this storm out this far in advance. What do they 00z GFS Ensembles show??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ensembles are the way to go to try and figure this storm out this far in advance. What do they 00z GFS Ensembles show??? They don't come out for another couple hours, at least on PSU's page, there may be other pages that receive them sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Those GEM ensembles look very intriguing for most members on this board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Those GEM ensembles look very intriguing for most members on this board. A bit too amped up and west for the Chicago/Milwaukee peeps. Just yesterday many of the models were showing an East Coast storm primarily (even today). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Onto the 00z Euro...something tells me the southern piece will do something crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z Euro a little different look this run @ 120HR...looks like southern piece is coming straight out of the Gulf near Alabama...lets see where it goes from here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z Euro with a 974mb near Detroit @ 144HR...complete bomb... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wonder if it brings any cold sector precip with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Completely different run from its 12z run yesterday....much farther west and similar looking to the 00z GFS Par (except its farther east near Detroit)...waiting for precip maps to load... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 31 MB drop in 24 hrs is impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z Euro nice hit MI...man, so close...but I like the trend for tonight's 00z runs...getting closer to a full phase earlier. Won't take much to swing back more moisture into cold sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 00z Euro nice hit MI...man, so close...but I like the trend for tonight's 00z runs...getting closer to a full phase earlier. Won't take much to swing back more moisture into cold sector. Great trends tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Great trends tonightEuro has a much weaker northern piece and the southern piece works it's magic. This second piece of energy comes off the Rockies and dives down into the Gulf. This model has a hard time handling that energy as it comes off the Mountains so slight timing differences can be bigger implications down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm loving the trends from last nights runs as well. The 00Z Euro essentially brought back its monster phased solution it had a couple of days ago. The Northern stream is further south and the southern stream ejects faster for rapid deepening a lot quicker and further west. This will continue to be very interesting to watch with many model shifts likely as we continue to get closer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 6z par gfs with another monster 970 in central Lake Michigan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Some of the 6z GFS ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f132.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Wow impressive trends for alot of you overnight. to bad it doesnt get its act together sooner could be a much more spread the wealth scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 This thread is gonna be interesting the next 4 days. the number of different scenarios that we are going to see will be high. This is not a typical storm and models will jump all over especially with the energy way out in the pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 man the GFS is warm for the clipper part of the storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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