Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Money]

Not until Monday it won't be sampled

[tim the weatherman]

also it is hard to tell where the rain snow line is going to be.

[Money]

Tom hoe does the Euro ensembles look ?

[gosaints]

I am just gonna ride the JMA

[Tom]

Tom hoe does the Euro ensembles look ?

Sorry, been out at the pool catching some rays before I leave back for Chicago late tonight.  12z Euro ensembles looking good for Wisco.

[gosaints]

this would be a curveball

 

MQT's latest guess:

 

 THERE IS ALSO A
QUESTION OF IF THIS SYSTEM WILL GO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND TURN
INTO AN EAST COAST STORM RATHER THAN A GREAT LAKES STORM. LOOKING AT
THE NEW ECMWF...IT CONTINUES TO GO WITH A GREAT LAKES SYSTEM...BUT
THE 500 MB TROUGH BECOMES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE A FEELING THE
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST SOLUTION MAY VERIFY WITH THE EAST COAST STORM
THOUGH AND HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO FIGURE THIS
OUT.

[GDR]

I'm sitting pretty on that map. Lock it in! 1/2 in. is still a white Christmas right?

[Money]

GB

 

EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST
TO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST AS
WELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY
WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ON
SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUS
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERE
SNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARS
TO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDING
BETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE
CONDITIONS.

DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCE
ISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH A
TRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE
WELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTER
EVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

[Snowshoe]

Nope. 1" officially

 

I'm sitting pretty on that map. Lock it in! 1/2 in. is still a white Christmas right?

[Money]

GFS/NAM starting/started on time

 

HR 84 NAM (lol)

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Tom]

12z GGEM...after reading one of the Disco's someone posted here, they talked about how the 12z GGEM had a quicker solution with the southern wave.  You can see that energy in the map below.  The Euro has a tendancy to hold back energy in the Rockies to long and the GGEM may be a bit to fast along with the GFS.  However, if that energy kicks out quicker, the southern piece has more time to develop and phase.  Obviously, a quicker phase is what we want so that is something to pay attn to as the model runs come in.

[Money]

Big changes on the 18z GFS already compared to 12z

[Tom]

FWIW, even when we get better sampling by Sunday (ish), until this storm starts getting its act together in the central CONUS and when all the moving parts start to phase, this storm can still throw a curve ball.  These type of cyclone's almost always have some way of wrecking havoc in the modeling 24-48 hours before the event.

[Money]

lol, compare the 12z and 18z GFS and have a laugh.

 

HR 102 18z GFS

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Snowshoe]

Posted about the models on TTB

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected. 

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

Must be North Korea!

[Money]

18z GFS looks a lot like 12z GFSP and 12z GGEM

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Money]

24 HR QPF

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_126_precip_p24.gif

[Money]

Looks like a good 4-8 inch storm in E. WI with 8+ up near GB. 

 

Long way to go with this yet though.

[Tom]

Look at the trough dig on the leeward side of the Rockies, something I thought that would be pronounced as we move forward due to the ridge building more on the west coast.  The re-curving system in the GOA is helping carve out a deeper trough in Central CONUS.

[Money]

18z PAR GFS is gonna be another huge hit for someone

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_1000_850_thick_l.gif

[Money]

105

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_105_1000_850_thick_l.gif

 

12z HR 111

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_111_1000_850_thick_l.gif

[tim the weatherman]

there is a fantastic article on the weather centre's weather blog highlighting the christmas storn and andrew has said that the storm will go neg tilt and he also has showed about which states will get snow from eastren wisconsin to illinois getting acclumated snow with illinois are significant where totals surpass the 6+ benchmark.

[Money]

Never really gets stronger til it's up in N. MI

 

108

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_108_1000_850_thick_l.gif

 

 

Still has a track in the W. part of MI though. It's been very consistent. 

[Grizzcoat]

Posted about the models on TTB

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected. 

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

Must be North Korea!

Anybody else having issues with Instant Weather Maps?? Last nights 00Z run was slow--- now it seems shot.

[WeatherFanOMA]

Local met. that has been posting on this strom just said he's done posting the operational GFS. Said it's worthless.

[Geos]

And the last frame HR 120

 

 

Something like that would be intense. Nice moisture connection from the Atlantic Ocean. You don't usually see that unless a system is moving really slow.

[chances14]

there is a fantastic article on the weather centre's weather blog highlighting the christmas storn and andrew has said that the storm will go neg tilt and he also has showed about which states will get snow from eastren wisconsin to illinois getting acclumated snow with illinois are significant where totals surpass the 6+ benchmark.

i assume you are refering to this article. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/christmas-eve-potentially-significant_19.html

 

If so, he never states in the artilcle what he thinks the storm is going to do. He is just describing what each model is showing right now

[bud2380]

This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated

 

That storm was quite nondescript locally, mostly a heavy soaking cold rain, I think we saw an inch or two of snow at some point, but that was a weird storm, but an easy one to forget in Milwaukee.

[centralweather44]

This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated

I would take it. Ended up with a foot of snow here and a storm I will never forget pushing. I can almost guarantee it ain't going to happen but man would that be something.

[Snowshoe]

This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated

 

Over an inch of rain and 5" of snow. I remember coming home to snow as hard as concrete on the driveway.

[GDR]

18z DGEX has a bomb in Illinois!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

18z DGEX has a bomb in Illinois!

 

You would be the last person I'd expect to mention the DGEX, that's a weenie model.

[tim the weatherman]

18z DGEX has a bomb in Illinois!

i don't see it being a bomb over illinois.

[tim the weatherman]

was just noticing that a member on accuweather fourms said that southren illinois getting 15 inches of wrap around snow.

[tim the weatherman]

berine rayno in his video on accuweather sees that the northren low shifting south putting in/oh in the heaviest snow.

[Geos]

was just noticing that a member on accuweather fourms said that southren illinois getting 15 inches of wrap around snow.

 

We'll that person was right...

 

 

Thought I'd show the last map of the 12km NAM. Showing the system to the north wrapping the cold air ahead of the system. 

 

[bud2380]

I noticed that on the nam that it seemed like it was showing like it could potentially phase sooner. I wish we could see the next few frames of the nam

[Tom]

I noticed that on the nam that it seemed like it was showing like it could potentially phase sooner. I wish we could see the next few frames of the nam

However, it is the 84HR of the NAM...but I know what your saying.  Let's hope this kind of trend continues.  Sure looks like it wants to begin the process of phasing and cut early.

[clintbeed1993]

I love how we can't even see what the GFS is doing because of the issues on Instant Weather Maps.