Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[tim the weatherman]

All the local mets calling for maybe a dusting Christmas eve but rain until then.

shoud be looking at the snowfall maps instead of listening at the local mets.

[WBadgersW]

All the local mets calling for maybe a dusting Christmas eve but rain until then.

I've noticed this too. They really should say that there is a slight chance of a moderate accumulations.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

shoud be looking at the snowfall maps instead of listening at the local mets.

 

Mets at this stage are as good if not better than snowfall maps.  When has a storm ever been pegged right on with 96 hours left to go?

[indianajohn]

IMO I think the local have a duty and obligation to inform people of the "possibility" of a major snow storm instead of downplaying the possibility and calling for all rain being that it's the busiest travel days of the year. 

[BigDizBliz420]

big snow for chicago!

[Geos]

I've noticed this too. They really should say that there is a slight chance of a moderate accumulations.

 

Time to starting mentioning that imo. Going to see if any of them change there tune tonight.

[GDR]

Chicago needs to start preparing because this storm is going to be a monster.

[gosaints]

Not like the nam to be weak like this

[bud2380]

Yeah NAM is weak and further east than previous runs. 

[Tom]

I think the NAM is having difficulty with this storm because of all the moving parts.  Once this baby gets onshore on heads into the Rockies, the models will have a much better handle on it.

[tim the weatherman]

jim ramsey of wgn sid in his 7 day forecast that one model is putting 7 or 8 inches down by christmas eve or christmas day.

[GDR]

00z gfs terrible. Chicago won't have to prepare for anything!

[Grizzcoat]

--https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg

[Grizzcoat]

Would be the 3rd time I can remember since NOV that the NAM actually led the way--- if its right.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Would be the 3rd time I can remember since NOV that the NAM actually led the way--- if its right.

 

Can't give the NAM any credit, its last two runs were on the NW side of the envelope, and since it's the first model out of the group, it will be noticed first if there is a run-wide change.

[Grizzcoat]

Can't give the NAM any credit, its last two runs were on the NW side of the envelope, and since it's the first model out of the group, it will be noticed first if there is a run-wide change.

Good point. But my overall point is that people like to trash the NAM-- almost like it's the old NGM. The NAM nailed two events in NOV for the Upper Midwest.

[Geos]

I do find it pretty strange that the NAM doesn't show some really strong solution with this storm. Maybe it doesn't because of all the moving parts like Tom said.

 

My guess is that the EURO will have a band cutting up through MI again on this run.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I do find it pretty strange that the NAM doesn't show some really strong solution with this storm. Maybe it doesn't because of all the moving parts like Tom said.

 

Just time to admit that this one may be (and probably is) a dud for most.  Even those who do see snow will be the rare lucky ones, as the cold air is too marginal.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM is on pace to tie 2002 (one of JB's analogs) for least snowiest DEC ever at a trace. DSM missed the latest occurrence of any snow in DEC by 2 days this year. I'am usually not negative-- but I'am trying some reverse psychology on this horrible month for winter lovers.

[GDR]

DSM is on pace to tie 2002 (one of JB's analogs) for least snowiest DEC ever at a trace. DSM missed the latest occurrence of any snow in DEC by 2 days this year. I'am usually not negative-- but I'am trying some reverse psychology on this horrible month for winter lovers.

Just wait until next week! Or at least that has be the phrase for this winter so far.

[GDR]

Wow I cant believe the shift to the east. Sorry Chicago folks I might have jinxed you earlier!

[Money]

GGEM HR 48 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122100/I_nw_r1_EST_2014122100_048.png

 

It's stuck after that

[GDR]

I still get over how crappy the GFS has been. Shows a monster for the Chicago area this morning to almost nothing now.

[Grizzcoat]

The Euro has actually improved snowfall totals for N and NW IA for the early week system. Keep the trend going and --- WHOA--  I might even have a white backyard  ( all I'am asking for Santa is .5 to .75" ) and DSM may move down the scale on least snowiest DEC.  SO sad that that is my current state of mind. NOV was like having a super hot chick talk to you at the bar only to have her husband return from the jon. Only Jan 06'  was worse. No way JB hits DEC right for temps as DSM is currently +6.1-- and JB forecasted -1 to -3F.

Enough venting. Even though it seems to be kind of working.

[bud2380]

Id rather have no snow at this point than a half inch say.  Might as well break a record for the least snowiest December. I saw flakes one time, for no accumulation.  Now if we can get something to drop at least a few inches I'd take it. 

[gosaints]

Just shows how crappy this December has been. Gonna have 40 degrees tomorrow and rain with 850 temps well under freezing

[gosaints]

Nam going further the other way glorified frontal passage

[GDR]

Well boys it's time to put a wrap on this storm. So much potential but looks like a dud now. Should we start a new storm thread, so we can follow it for two weeks and be let down at the end?

[tim the weatherman]

phil schwartz of abc chicago said on this morning's newscast that one model doesn't show the low over texas and others show it and he also has said from the city on south will get the heaviest so there might be hope and i am not throwing the towel just yet.

[tim the weatherman]

a member on accuweather fourms was showing model's intake on the storm and the low is going through illinois and the low is at rockford il

[GDR]

a member on accuweather fourms was showing model's intake on the storm and the low is going through illinois and the low is at rockford il

models are also showing a lot of rain to.

[GDR]

The PGFS is showing some love for Iowa and eastern Illinois but I'm not putting to much stock into it.

[Money]

Lol ukmet is in n Indiana now

[Money]

P GFS has a 984 L in S WI while nam is in eastern ohio and we are within 72 hrs

 

LOL

[Scott26]

P GFS has a 984 L in S WI while nam is in eastern ohio and we are within 72 hrs

 

LOL

The parallel GFS slams Eastern Iowa lol. It kind of looks like some of the Euro ensembles. Models still don't have much of a clue and it's very frustrating. I don't think anybody can throw in the towel yet even at this juncture.

[tim the weatherman]

The parallel GFS slams Eastern Iowa lol. It kind of looks like some of the Euro ensembles. Models still don't have much of a clue and it's very frustrating. I don't think anybody can throw in the towel yet even at this juncture.

i agree that no one shouldn't throw in the towel just yet.

[Money]

GGEM ensembles are all over the board . Shows 3-4 parallel gfs solutions with sub 985 in N IL or S WI and nearly all of them are stronger than the 12z op ggem

[Scott26]

GGEM ensembles are all over the board . Shows 3-4 parallel gfs solutions with sub 985 in N IL or S WI and nearly all of them are stronger than the 12z op ggem

Can you possibly post the ensembles?

[Money]

I will in a couple mins on my phone right now

[Money]

HR 72