Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[tim the weatherman]

i would of say that chicago is in the right spot right now.

[Tom]

12z GFS...can't wait to see the NAM get in range and start showing some lolipop totals.  This storm really starting to take on the look I have been dreaming about since watching this storm 4 days ago.  The Jet Stream structure and teleconnections all supported this to be an eventful storm for Christmas Eve.  Hang on to your hats!

 

 

I need some help, friends. I've got two family holiday parties on Christmas Eve. One in Plainfield starting at 1:30pm, and the other in Belvidere that starts at 4pm. Although we're nowhere near a final solution yet & things may go more west or back east, what's the timing looking like for falling snow?

12z GFS shows it starting to snow around 6-9:00am Christmas Eve.

[winterfreak]

Man I'm so jelous of you guys in the lower lakes. Have fun with this one.

[Scott26]

You probably meant dynamic cooling. Woke up this morning from my "red eye" flight and Bingo!  Boy, this storm is def taking on a sweet defo band.  Like you said, we are still 3-4 days from the event and there will likely be many smaller fine details to iron out.  Snowfall potential certainly on the rise.

Yeah my bad. Nice catch! lol

[Tom]

00z Euro Control backing off the EC storm idea from earlier and now seeing the southern Midwest to Lakes snow potential.  Euro Ensembles are also going back to it's idea from a couple days ago with a north/south snow band orientation like the Control.

[Sciascia]

12z GFS shows it starting to snow around 6-9:00am Christmas Eve.

Oh....goody. Lol. Typically I'd love snow on Christmas Eve because everyone used to have to come to my parents' house & I live close to them. But I gotta do actual travel this year. Add in the fact that both places are 90 minutes apart, with Christmas Eve traffic, and I'm looking at an I-88 Navidad.

[BigDizBliz420]

euro is east

[Money]

euro is east

 

Euro didn't even come out yet lol

[Tony]

euro is east

Which run? 12z not out yet

[BigDizBliz420]

12z will be east

[Scott26]

12z will be east

There is no way you can know that lol.

[Iowawx]

This is not worth watching in Iowa. Going to be too Far East. Have fun getting 12 inches in Chicago as usual.

[bud2380]

GGEM delayed again; not sure what's going on with that model lately. 

[Tony]

The only troubling item with this storm is the lack of cold air otherwise it would be golden. There will be a dramatic cutoff from frozen to liquid with this storm.

[bud2380]

This is not worth watching in Iowa. Going to be too Far East. Have fun getting 12 inches in Chicago as usual.

 This storm is still 4 days away; shifting will occur, it's just a matter of which direction and how far.

[Money]

GGEM HR 89

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122012_089.png

[Money]

92

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122012_092.png

[GDR]

12z will be east

a good shift east, wow!

[Money]

95

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122012/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122012_095.png

[Scott26]

a good shift east, wow!

It just proves that models really don't have a clue right now. We just have to continue to be patient lol.

[Money]

It just proves that models really don't have a clue right now. We just have to continue to be patient lol.

 

Won't know until like 12-18 hours before the event. With all the moving parts and phasing etc models usually don't get a good grasp on it until the event is happening.

[bud2380]

GGEM is further east. 

[Tom]

Won't know until like 12-18 hours before the event. With all the moving parts and phasing etc models usually don't get a good grasp on it until the event is happening.

Especially with a deepening and explosive scenario like this one is poised to become...

[Money]

GGEM ensembles are all over the place. From 970's in WI to barely anything at all

 

Here are some:

 

[tim the weatherman]

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/TSFeature_122014Header-839x1024.jpghttp://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2014/12/FEATURE12192014.jpg

[East Dubzz]

Lol, who shows the U.S. Navy model?

[tim the weatherman]

Lol, who shows the U.S. Navy model?

nobody doesn't

[Money]

Euro is much stronger with southern stream at 48 compared to 12z yesterday

[Tom]

Euro is much stronger with southern stream at 48 compared to 12z yesterday

Likely to cut farther west from its previous runs.  Location is near TX/OK border as well so this should def enable it to start heading NNE.  Should be a good run.

[GDR]

12z GGEM looks crazy with chicago in the hot spot. The system looks weak though.

[Money]

989 in central MI or so on the euro

[Tom]

Barely any snow on the 12z Euro...except in the Northwoods...

[Tony]

Farthet NW from last run which is a good sign. Just need to find colder air to filter into this puppy.

[tim the weatherman]

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/55-e1419083448735.jpg

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/64-e1419085703398.jpg

[Tom]

Farthet NW from last run which is a good sign. Just need to find colder air to filter into this puppy.

One of the meager looking Euro runs I'd say.  It doesn't seem to dig the trough as much on this run and moves to quickly.

[Money]

Looks like it was really close to dropping something bigger. Rapidly deepens after that hr 96 frame. Didn't quite make it this run tho

[Tony]

As Tom would say "baby steps". Finer details to be worked out but really pretty good set of runs today only to hopefully get better with time.

[Money]

GFS Ensemble Mean

 

84

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122012/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_15.png

 

90

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122012/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_16.png

 

96

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122012/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_17.png

[Money]

24 HR Precip:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014122012/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_18.png

 

Pretty good agreement from the looks of it.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121912/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121912/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png