Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Madtown]

Not a mention of this in local discos....just rain Monday night. Are we just blindly hoping for something?

[gosaints]

Not a mention of this in local discos....just rain Monday night. Are we just blindly hoping for something?

Ha ha is this how you really feel?  A bomb could.  Might not but could.  Numerous models show the potential

[FV-Mike]

LOT's disco is good. Explains how with such a large scale pattern change the models will have a tough time figuring everything out.

[gosaints]

LOT's disco is good. Explains how with such a large scale pattern change the models will have a tough time figuring everything out.

Ya nobody is gonna talk specifics with so many outcomes on the table

[gosaints]

This should be a pretty good test for the parallel GFS.  Chance to score a coup

[Tony]

I am so surprised to see very little precip to the west of the low.

[Tom]

I think we what we will see is the models to get a better handle on the ridge that will build out west which in turn will allow the storm system to dig more in the central CONUS.  This was the pattern we saw back in November and with teleconnections supporting a deeper trough centered in the central CONUS, the storm should phase earlier.  This energetic jet stream will ride up and around the ridge and really amplify the pattern in the central CONUS developing the -AO/-PNA pattern.  I think the GFS Par is onto something and with an earlier phase we may also see more precip thrown back into cold sector.

[Snowshoe]

It's partly a product of the battle between northern and southern stream dominance. If/when the southern stream dominates we should see more GOM moisture wrap around. Shouldn't get too concerned with precip amounts yet.

[gosaints]

GFS is a good bit south with the northern low

[gosaints]

Changes coming on the GFS for sure.  It is already evident at hour 90

[gosaints]

LOL for consistency

[Snowshoe]

This quote will get repeated a few dozen more times

 

Changes coming on the GFS for sure.  It is already evident at hour 90

[Money]

lol gfs

[Tom]

Changes coming on the GFS for sure.  It is already evident at hour 90

And that is exactly what I was just eluding to...12z GFS no longer with East Coast storm and taking SLP right through N IL/S WI...model mayhem will continue...

[gosaints]

and the parallel is not updating

[Tom]

The southern stream will end up becoming the main player with this system and an earlier phase is more likely down south I'd say near Arkansas.  Baby steps...

[gosaints]

secondary low almost non existent

[gosaints]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=159&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_159_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141219+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

good luck getting the 2nd system to cut into that

[Money]

PGFS brings a nice swath of snow from Arkansas up through IL through 114hrs, with the low near South Bend.

[Money]

P. GFS

 

HR 108

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_1000_500_thick_l.gif

 

HR 114

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_114_1000_500_thick_l.gif

[Money]

HR 120

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick_l.gif

 

HR 126

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_126_1000_500_thick_l.gif

[Money]

UKIE

 

HR 96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

HR 120

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Maxim]

that looks awful

[Tom]

Look at the neg tilt really starting to amplify early on....looking good 

[gosaints]

canadian wont update

[Tom]

canadian wont update

WxBell maps are not loading either...

[tim the weatherman]

Look at the neg tilt really starting to amplify early on....looking good 

when ever you hear neg tilt i have learned this that a sideways trough develops and a secondary low and the occluded front also develops.

[Money]

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PCPN FOCUSING LEAD SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS EMBEDDED IMPUSLES DIG TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFIC
RIDGE ALOFT. THE SUPPORTING AND INCREASINGLY NEG-TILT TROUGH ALOFT
WORKS OVER THE ERN US AND OUT THROUGH THE NERN STATES INTO DAYS
5/6 WED/THU. SUSPECT A THREAT EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED WINTER WEATHER
IN LEAD FLOW OVER A COOLED NRN NEW ENG AIRMASS TUE WITH LOW
INDUCED WRAP-AROUND SNOWS SPREADING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKE STATES/MIDWEST LINGERING PAST TUE/WED THAT WORK MORE IN
ERNEST OUT THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND MAINLY INTERIOR NRN
MID-ATLANTIC/NERN US ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS.

[Money]

GGEM is starting to load

[Money]

D**n. P GFS crushes WI/IA with the 26th storm.

 

992 right over Chicago at HR 192

[gosaints]

D**n. P GFS crushes WI/IA with the 26th storm.

 

992 right over Chicago at HR 192

got a link?

[Money]

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_183_1000_500_thick_l.gif

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_189_1000_500_thick_l.gif

[winterfreak]

Second system too far north still but still have some time to sort that one out.

[Money]

GGEM has a 997 L west of STL at HR 101.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_101.png

[Money]

HR 102

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_102.png

[Money]

HR 107 it's down to 991 with a mix of rn/sn showing up 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_107.png

[Money]

HR 109 a good bit of the rn on the nw side turned to snow

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_109.png

[Money]

Moving due north now and starting to get stronger each hour

 

HR 112

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_112.png

[Money]

Phase complete. Stayed in the same spot last 2 hrs

 

HR 114

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_114.png

[Tony]

Moving due north now and starting to get stronger each hour

 

HR 112

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014121912/I_nw_g1_EST_2014121912_112.png

Looks to have gone negative tilt