Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[bud2380]

I love how we can't even see what the GFS is doing because of the issues on Instant Weather Maps.

You can use the nws main page. Here it is

 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS bombs it out  near Sault St Marie at 972MB at hour 126.

[Tom]

GFS bombs it out  near Sault St Marie at 972MB at hour 126.  here is snowfall if that run is correct---

graphic.aspx.png

That map is wrong...its 00z 19th...it should be 00z 20th...tonights run of the 00z GFS for the first time develops a defo band over N IL/SE WI...

[bud2380]

I saw that map too and it makes no sense. For example Dubuque shows .23" qpf with surface and 850 temps below zero, yet that map shows almost no snow

[Grizzcoat]

Tom-- I think the map is correct-- but the time stamp is in error.

[bud2380]

[Grizzcoat]

You guys may be correct-- I think the outage may be causing ACCWX rapid maps issues also-- I will remove the map.

[bud2380]

That text output is for Milwaukee. Heavy precip with 850s below zero, but surface temps are too warm. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds

[Scott26]

image.jpg

Can you post ORD as well if you can?

[Grizzcoat]

ORD-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD    LAT=  41.98 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   673                                            00Z DEC20   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SAT 00Z 20-DEC  -2.2    -4.8    1028      81      40             556     534    SAT 06Z 20-DEC  -2.1    -3.8    1026      83      39    0.00     554     533    SAT 12Z 20-DEC  -2.8    -5.4    1026      89      57    0.00     552     531    SAT 18Z 20-DEC   0.6    -5.6    1025      63      66    0.00     550     530    SUN 00Z 21-DEC  -1.4    -5.5    1025      65      37    0.00     551     532    SUN 06Z 21-DEC  -1.1    -5.8    1024      64      45    0.00     554     534    SUN 12Z 21-DEC  -0.9    -2.7    1023      73      37    0.00     554     536    SUN 18Z 21-DEC   2.5     0.4    1021      69      81    0.00     554     537    MON 00Z 22-DEC   1.2     0.7    1018      76      66    0.00     552     538    MON 06Z 22-DEC   0.1     0.4    1014      79      50    0.00     549     538    MON 12Z 22-DEC   0.1     0.8    1010      78      95    0.00     546     538    MON 18Z 22-DEC   4.5     1.5    1004      81      96    0.02     544     541    TUE 00Z 23-DEC   4.6     1.5    1001      96      91    0.08     543     542    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   4.7    -0.7    1003      97      45    0.00     545     542    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   4.2     0.9    1004      98      98    0.04     546     543    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   5.1     1.6    1003      90      89    0.09     547     544    WED 00Z 24-DEC   3.4    -0.2    1004      89      96    0.03     546     543    WED 06Z 24-DEC   2.3    -0.8    1000      94      96    0.09     543     543    WED 12Z 24-DEC   1.1    -2.2     994      97      97    0.29     533     538    WED 18Z 24-DEC   0.7    -3.9     991      98     100    0.25     525     532    THU 00Z 25-DEC  -0.4    -5.3     994      92      98    0.09     526     531    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -1.7    -5.3     995      91      79    0.03     526     530    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -5.1    -5.6    1000      90      53    0.00     527     527    THU 18Z 25-DEC  -3.3    -4.6    1003      85      14    0.00     534     531    FRI 00Z 26-DEC  -3.3    -2.9    1007      88      39    0.00     541     535    FRI 06Z 26-DEC  -2.3    -2.9    1008      89      93    0.00     543     536    FRI 12Z 26-DEC  -2.0    -6.4    1008      94      99    0.03     540     533    FRI 18Z 26-DEC  -2.6    -6.8    1012      87      74    0.05     535     526 

[bud2380]

[Geos]

 

ORD-

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD    LAT=  41.98 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   673                                            00Z DEC20   * - APPROXIMATED                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SAT 00Z 20-DEC  -2.2    -4.8    1028      81      40             556     534    SAT 06Z 20-DEC  -2.1    -3.8    1026      83      39    0.00     554     533    SAT 12Z 20-DEC  -2.8    -5.4    1026      89      57    0.00     552     531    SAT 18Z 20-DEC   0.6    -5.6    1025      63      66    0.00     550     530    SUN 00Z 21-DEC  -1.4    -5.5    1025      65      37    0.00     551     532    SUN 06Z 21-DEC  -1.1    -5.8    1024      64      45    0.00     554     534    SUN 12Z 21-DEC  -0.9    -2.7    1023      73      37    0.00     554     536    SUN 18Z 21-DEC   2.5     0.4    1021      69      81    0.00     554     537    MON 00Z 22-DEC   1.2     0.7    1018      76      66    0.00     552     538    MON 06Z 22-DEC   0.1     0.4    1014      79      50    0.00     549     538    MON 12Z 22-DEC   0.1     0.8    1010      78      95    0.00     546     538    MON 18Z 22-DEC   4.5     1.5    1004      81      96    0.02     544     541    TUE 00Z 23-DEC   4.6     1.5    1001      96      91    0.08     543     542    TUE 06Z 23-DEC   4.7    -0.7    1003      97      45    0.00     545     542    TUE 12Z 23-DEC   4.2     0.9    1004      98      98    0.04     546     543    TUE 18Z 23-DEC   5.1     1.6    1003      90      89    0.09     547     544    WED 00Z 24-DEC   3.4    -0.2    1004      89      96    0.03     546     543    WED 06Z 24-DEC   2.3    -0.8    1000      94      96    0.09     543     543    WED 12Z 24-DEC   1.1    -2.2     994      97      97    0.29     533     538    WED 18Z 24-DEC   0.7    -3.9     991      98     100    0.25     525     532    THU 00Z 25-DEC  -0.4    -5.3     994      92      98    0.09     526     531    THU 06Z 25-DEC  -1.7    -5.3     995      91      79    0.03     526     530    THU 12Z 25-DEC  -5.1    -5.6    1000      90      53    0.00     527     527    THU 18Z 25-DEC  -3.3    -4.6    1003      85      14    0.00     534     531    FRI 00Z 26-DEC  -3.3    -2.9    1007      88      39    0.00     541     535    FRI 06Z 26-DEC  -2.3    -2.9    1008      89      93    0.00     543     536    FRI 12Z 26-DEC  -2.0    -6.4    1008      94      99    0.03     540     533    FRI 18Z 26-DEC  -2.6    -6.8    1012      87      74    0.05     535     526 

 

Best precipitation falls from 1.1°C on down. Probably looking at snow starting to fall wet and heavy at 34° with falling temps.

[Tom]

image.jpg

Nice!  First time wing the GFS paint a snowfall map like this.  I remember seeing one of the Euro ensembles painting a snowfall map like this a couple days ago.  I'd imagine as we get closer to the event, models will catch onto cooling aloft with a rapidly intensifying system.

[Tom]

I guess the 12z GGEM was the first model to catch on to this trend thus far if it continues with the rest of tonight's 00z suite of model runs.

[clintbeed1993]

GFS completely diminishes the 2nd system.  Definitely not a good run for the plains.

[Tom]

GFS completely diminishes the 2nd system.  Definitely not a good run for the plains.

Yup, where did that storm go???  LOL

[clintbeed1993]

Yup, where did that storm go???  LOL

 

Idk, lol.  Model mayhem continues.

[winterfreak]

Yep we'll most likely have to wait until sometime in January before we have a shot at a storm in the plains. Just not happening right now.

[Tom]

Never mind, I had to delete that post of the 00z GFS Par...it was the 12z run...

[bud2380]

Pgfs is stronger for the late week system. Showing a more widespread 3-6" across iowa

[bud2380]

Pgfs

 

[Tom]

I think Wx Bell is not updating their time stamp on the maps bc it still says 12z 19th but the map reflects the 00z 20th run...

[Geos]

Yeah those aren't the same maps above. GGEM is not updating either tonight.

[Money]

GGEM 84

 

[Money]

HR 96

 

[Money]

HR 108

 

[Money]

0z EURO already has a 998 L in N. Texas with the southern stream...Much stronger southern stream storm than 12z and 0z last night at the same time frame

[Money]

HR 120 GGEM

 

 

 

First run I think I've seen it get near 970 in the U.S.

[Geos]

Looks like a wet wind driven snow west of Lake Michigan here on those maps.

[Tom]

00z GGEM looks very nice, starts phasing much earlier than we have seen....00z Euro farther west with the southern stream from last nights 00z runs.

[Money]

HR 96 EURO  has a 999 L in N. MS

[Money]

0z GFS was 3-8 from Chicago straight north to GB. Higher amounts as you head farther north from Chicago.

[Tom]

Alright boys, heading out to the airport.  Got to catch a "red eye" flight back home to Chicago.  Been waiting for some Winter weather to finally return.  Looks like it will just in time for the Holidays!

[Money]

0z EURO: 974 L over Detroit

[Geos]

Western MI is hit on the EURO good, but it may be a touch too warm.

 

Have a safe trip back Tom!

[Money]

Anything this way or not really? 

[Money]

EURO still has the 2nd storm. 994 near Geos area at 168

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-25152-1419057008_thumb.png

[Money]

Precip maps

 

111

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122000_111.png

 

115

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122000_115.png

 

118

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122000_118.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Precip maps

 

111

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122000_111.png

 

115

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122000_115.png

 

118

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014122000/I_nw_g1_EST_2014122000_118.png

 

The GEM is our friend, but lol at this mixed precip at hr 118 while north and south of us is looking at snow, no wonder amounts kind of taper from Chicago to Milwaukee.  Hard to buy into that wackiness at this point though.