Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Madtown]

Any maps yet?

[Money]

3-6 from STL ne to gb

[WildWisconsinWeather]

hard to say if the 18z GFS will be a trend setter or go right back to the less phased/further east solution. This storm makes me laugh. 

 

Euro Ensembles are almost all east of the 18z GFS, so it may take a pretty big shift back west to make things interesting for E Iowa/W Wisconsin.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

3-6 from STL ne to gb

 

Meh, decent but not great for a strong low.

[tim the weatherman]

3-6 from STL ne to gb

should be a lot more totals if this is a strong low.

[Money]

Parallel gfs looks a lot like op gfs through 60

 

995 in S IN

[WildWisconsinWeather]

should be a lot more totals if this is a strong low.

 

Sure, but there's just too much warm air around, hopefully dynamic cooling is undermodeled.

[Madtown]

All in good time. Wild

[Tom]

LOT mentioned the strength of the downstream ridge which will limit how far east the low will go

Bingo, that's what I'm thinking from what I saw on the Euro 500mb maps I posted.

[MarcusBeier]

is there a chance this thing trends back SE and gets Michigan back in play? I wasnt planning to move to Florida until May but i might as well go now if i have to stare at this cold, dead, brown ground any longer.

[tim the weatherman]

the way it sounds like a battle of the models.

[Tom]

18z GFS Par...

[Scott26]

We have to remember that his is far from a classic winter storm. Even with a track in our favor there is going to be very marginal surface temps. Dynamic cooling will do the trick in areas west of the low, but remember temps at the surface will still be very warm. 3-6 inches would still be a very nice snowstorm for some so lets not be greedy.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

is there a chance this thing trends back SE and gets Michigan back in play? I wasnt planning to move to Florida until May but i might as well go now if i have to stare at this cold, dead, brown ground any longer.

 

The problem is if trends SE, it will likely be weaker, so not sure you would be in play for more than a couple inches.

[Iowawx]

18z GFS Par...

Nice, no snow for my area. What needs to happen for eastern Iowa to get anything from this?

[tim the weatherman]

phil schwartz said on the 5:00 pm newscast on abc 7 news that the low will go east uf illinois across indiana but weak and he showed the snowfall map west of chicago will get 5 and in the city and the surronding suburbs will get over an inch.

[The Snowman]

should be a lot more totals if this is a strong low.

Problem is this isn't looking to be a strong low. Trough isn't negatively-tilted as in previous runs.

[Geos]

according to the wgn tv's website that chances of the christmas eve storm is decreasing and mike hammernik said on this morning's newscast because of the models.

 

That's a foolish call. 

 

EURO ensembles are no longer favoring the low cutting too close to this area. All tracks to the east.

 

[Geos]

This would be what you call a "thread the needle" event. Tough to say what's going to happen. 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Need a little laughter??? This seems to be working for me. Denny Green talking weather some years back--- lmao!

Calcutta Clipper.   http://www.hark.com/clips/qydgcwxnzt-calcutta-clipper

[Niko]

Been so busy, hardly had a chance to read up about this potential storm. Anyways, too bad I am in the warm sector of this storm system. Chicago looks better with accumulating snowfall. They might be looking at some advisories. 

[gosaints]

Man Lol I guess that new data caused some changes

[Geos]

Gezz - the NAM went even weaker with the wave this time around.

[Scott26]

Gezz - the NAM went even weaker with the wave this time around.

The 00Z NAM has a east coast storm

[Geos]

The 00Z NAM has a east coast storm

 

Cincinnati and Dayton get a white Christmas! 

 

[Scott26]

Watch the GFS take the low through Western Illinois lol

[FV-Mike]

Skilling keeping the hope alive

 

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/christmas-holiday-ahead-cloudsrain-followed-by-snow

[Madtown]

Well I would love that

[Madtown]

Also what would be expected with this much energy and the ridges

[Scott26]

I would take the GFS and run lol. Parallel GFS looks pretty good over here as well.

[tim the weatherman]

according to some info i heard that i 55 and i 57 corrdors in illinois will get the heaviest snows and from ne il toup of michigan.

[Tom]

Better than nothing...hopefully we see a better defo band in future runs....anything to whiten up the landscape on Christmas

[WildWisconsinWeather]

according to some info i heard that i 55 and i 57 corrdors in illinois will get the heaviest snows.

 

You do realize that, like everyone else, these people are only making educated guesses?  Everything you post is posted like fact.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Better than nothing...hopefully we see a better defo band in future runs....anything to whiten up the landscape on Christmas

 

It may be tough, given the GFS/PGFS appear to be on their own in the NW camp at this point.  Really hoping the GEM jumps back NW.

[Tom]

It may be tough, given the GFS/PGFS appear to be on their own in the NW camp at this point.  Really hoping the GEM jumps back NW.

Yup, also noticing the models backing off on the bomb they were predicting a couple days ago.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Yup, also noticing the models backing off on the bomb they were predicting a couple days ago.

 

Well, yeah there certainly aren't any models taking the low into the 960s anymore.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_asnow_us_21.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

[Scott26]

This is just not a classic winter storm folks. Not too much cold air to work with and therefore a very thin band of snow will develop west to the low. I wouldn't be too surprised if 3 or 4 inches is the ceiling anywhere this far south. At this point all I want is a White Christmas which is funny because I'm Jewish haha. We will see though... there may be more surprises in store.

[Money]

Parallel GFS with 981 in W. MI

[Geos]

PGFS is very similar with placement of the snow band. Little bit stronger though with rain getting into northern Lower.