Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[BigDizBliz420]

doesn't look good for wisconsin imo

[Tom]

Anything up this way?

Ya, you seemed to be on the western end of the defo band...dynamic cooling is going to end up being the key caveat. 

[Tony]

Skillings' RPM at noon had a ton of moisture with rain changing to snow around 5:00pm on Wednesday. Pretty good defo band just not a lot on the snow totals.

Hoping not a lot of moisture is sucked away by the rain.

[GDR]

Looks like Chicago is going to get blasted.

[Money]

SREF 12 hr min. snow totals at hr 48 (much wetter in terms of snowfall)

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122215/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gif

[BigDizBliz420]

Looks like Chicago is going to get blasted.

 

told you guys

[gosaints]

told you guys

Lol depends on your definition of blasted

[Iowawx]

Just been getting a steady light rain here all day, making it damp outside. This storm is going to be a major dud for Iowa while Chicago gets hammered as usual. It seems like we can never get anything here in Iowa.

[tim the weatherman]

SREF 12 hr min. snow totals at hr 48 (much wetter in terms of snowfall)

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122215/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gif

not much i think that we might not get that much as orginally thought.

[winterfreak]

SREF 12 hr min. snow totals at hr 48 (much wetter in terms of snowfall)

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122215/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f048.gif

That can't be right. My area is too far east with.this one.

[BigDizBliz420]

Lol depends on your definition of blasted

 

I'm looking forward to watching the heavy snow fall while sipping cocktails on Christmas Eve.   

[tim the weatherman]

the only reason we are not getting the big snowstorm we thought is because the lack of cold air with the milder air and with that piece lurking in canada is choking the southren piece off.

[Maxim]

not much i think that we might not get that much as orginally thought.

It only goes out to Wednesday. 

[FV-Mike]

I'm looking forward to watching the heavy snow fall while sipping cocktails on Christmas Eve.   

Snow will be heavy and wet but I think all of Chicago area should be planning for 2-4 inches.

[BigDizBliz420]

Snow will be heavy and wet but I think all of Chicago area should be planning for 2-4 inches.

 

that's a lot of snow! white Christmas for sure

[Money]

Hi res nam holding firm from 12z and even is 2 mb stronger through hr 30

[gosaints]

Nam won't budge however

[Geos]

Looks like Chicago is going to get blasted.

 

More like plastered! haha

 

Ever since the update the NAM had in August, it has lacked the medium range amped up solutions. 

 

4km NAM is the exact opposite though.

[Money]

995 in w tn at hr 36

 

Slower a tad sw and about 2 mb stronger than 12z

[Money]

992 in eastern il a tad sw of LAF

 

Going to hold strong compared if it's 12z run

[gosaints]

WAA

[Geos]

MKX is sure not impressed yet with the westward shift of this system.

[Yerf]

I'm liking the GEFS ensembles

[Money]

Hi res nam takes it down to 982 or so right over geos area

[gosaints]

MSN special but doubt that verifies . pretty all rain all the way to Milwaukee and points even north west of there

[Geos]

Yeah that's in line with the RGEM. The extreme (stronger) solution usually doesn't verify.

 

[Money]

Geos starting to panic

[Geos]

Geos starting to panic

 

If the GFS looks like this, then I will. 

 

Crazy ---

 

[Money]

Never doubt the NW trend

 

Never

[Geos]

Never doubt the NW trend

 

Never

 

This part of the latest MKX discussion makes we wonder if they're really watching the models, lol!

 

 

A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED

TROUGH OVER THE AR/MO AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH

LOWER MICHIGAN WED EVENING. A 150 KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHEAST WI WILL

BE ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. I LOWERED THE PRECIP

CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD NOT

EVEN BE VERY STRONG EXCEPT FOR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

 

925MB TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW 0C IN SOUTHEAST WI TUE EVENING BUT WILL

REMAIN WARMER THAN -5C THROUGH WED NIGHT. WE WILL BE HOVERING AROUND

THE FREEZING MARK AT THE SURFACE... SO THIS WILL MEAN A RAIN OR SNOW

MIX FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIP WE GET.

 

[Money]

That was this mornings afd

[FV-Mike]

LOT going with an SWS for the time being

[Money]

986 sw of Chicago on 18z rgem

[Geos]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
230200-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...
WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...
FOWLER
318 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 /418 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

...SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW WILL TAKE...WHICH COULD MEAN THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION...RAIN...OR RAIN
CHANGING TO WET SNOW. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF
HEAVY WET ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

FOR THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS ON WEDNESDAY...PLEASE BE AWARE
THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PLEASE KEEP
ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM FOR UPDATES.

$

IZZI

 

Well said.

[Snowshoe]

This part of the latest MKX discussion makes we wonder if they're really watching the models, lol!

 

That was this morning. Here is the afternoon.

 

 

 

.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

 

YESTERDAY THE 12Z PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS...FOLLOWED BY THE 18Z

THROUGH THE 12Z TODAY RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWED A BACKING

TO THE WEST OF THE SECONDARY LOW FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS

ALSO TRENDED FARTHER WEST NOW. THE TWO VERSIONS OF THE CANADIAN

MODEL ARE ALSO SHOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS WELL. THEREFORE

PRECIP CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR

WEDNESDAY. STILL...THE AXIS OF BEST QPF IS STILL SOUTHEAST OF

WISCONSIN...WE/RE JUST GETTING INTO THE WESTERN SHIELD OF IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS FOR SNOW. IN THE

ABSENCE OF STRONG DYNAMICS...THE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN WITH

SOME SNOW MIXED IN. HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING

OF THE COLUMN AND THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MORE SNOW THAN

RAIN. THIS WOULD BE A RATHER WET SNOW WITH VERY LOW SNOW/LIQ

RATIOS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S.

GIVEN THAT AND THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE DAY

SUGGEST THE IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW AS WE WILL LIKELY GET DECENT

MELTING...IF SNOW OCCURS. THE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE

WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM.

[Snowshoe]

A little hope from LaCrosse in their AFD.

 

 

 

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MAINLY A CONCERN ON TUESDAY WEST OF A LINE
FROM OLWEIN TO LA CROSSE TO WASSAU. EXPECT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WARM AIR THIS EVENING AND A SLOW
TRANSITION TO A COLDER AIR MASS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT SNOWFALL...
BUT MODELS SHOW ALL BUT THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING BY 23.12Z. EXPECT STRONG LIFT FROM 5 TO 8 UBAR/SECOND
ALONG THE -15 C ISOTHERM WITHIN DEFORMATION SNOW AXIS TO GENERATE
SNOWFALL RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ACCUMULATE. NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF HEAVY WET
SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS MATCHES FAIRLY
WELL WITH LATEST GFS/NAM COBB OUTPUT AND SREF PLUMES. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WILL BE BEST REALIZED ACROSS GRASSY SURFACES...BUT COULD
STILL SEE SLUSH ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAKING TRAVEL
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WILL
KEEP CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY AND MONITOR
ALL OTHER AREAS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION. SEE SPS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

[Tom]

I knew all along that models wont have a clue about what will happen to this storm....not until the storm begins to form in the central CONUS  and the process of cyclogenisis occurs.  Hi Rez models by tomorrow should have a better handle on this system and they will "see" the pieces to the puzzle fine tuned.  Somebody is going to get nailed.  Still kinda worried Chicago might be to close to the rain/snow line as this storm could energize too much and trend NW.

[gosaints]

parallel gfs really warm

[Money]

Parallel gfs west and stronger

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif