Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

Saw WGN's RPM model and it was painting a general 4-8" in N IL with pockets of 9" near Lake/Cook counties...

[Tom]

ARW

 

0z HR 48

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_048_sim_radar.gif

 

12z HR 36

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_036_sim_radar.gif

That is a nice plume of moisture heading due north straight out of the GOM...

[Money]

ARW ends up pretty far south, and gives the best snows south of Chicago.

 

NMM on the other hand is pretty far north. 

[Grizzcoat]

WSW just issued for dmx areas

[gosaints]

Ensembles look decent.

[BigDizBliz420]

ARW ends up pretty far south, and gives the best snows south of Chicago.

 

NMM on the other hand is pretty far north. 

 

 

ARW still 6"+ and still snowing with LE just starting to kick in...

[Tony]

Just catching up on all the posts. Nice model runs the past 12hrs or so and looking like a major event for many. Plenty of moisture to really accelerate the accumulations to maybe even higher to what they are showing, and a partial phase in the works coupled with lake enhancement and decent wind field to make for a nice snow globe around these parts. Getting excited but will keep it subdued as you never know what can happen with the next set of runs.

[East Dubzz]

Yes, should be the first headline snow event since I've been in Rock Island.

[Madtown]

thinking 3 to 5 inches here

[Yerf]

Rare to see LOT issue WSW this early. I like to see they are on board

[BigDizBliz420]

Euro is good?

[Money]

12z euro is pretty much the same as 0z. Very little difference. Locked and loaded for Chicago 

[BigDizBliz420]

Thanks Money!

[Money]

Chicago is buried on the 12z EURO. More QPF than 0z, and inched north a tad overall. 

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Money]

Here was 0z last night

 

 

12z today

 

[winterfreak]

D**n that's a perfect track just eight degrees too warm. Oh well.

[Money]

At least ratios should be pretty high this far north. .2-.25 qpf could fluff up to 4-5 or so

[BigDizBliz420]

Time to stock up on food and beer on the drive home!

[Snowshoe]

Trying to be quiet and pessimistic that this storm could have a few more miles north to travel. I don't want to scare it back south. Kinda like a no-hitter in baseball.

[indianajohn]

are we looking at 10-1 ratios or higher?

[Money]

Trying to be quite and pessimistic that this storm could have a few more miles north to travel. I don't want to scare it back south. Kinda like a no-hitter in baseball.

 

We got this

[Tom]

Right now, I'm going with 5-10" for N IL with isolated higher amounts lakeside...the LES is looking better each run and lasting all the way into Monday morning commute.

[BigDizBliz420]

are we looking at 10-1 ratios or higher?

 

 

I think they start at 10:1 and increase to 20:1 by the end LE

[Maxim]

Final call for ORD: 11.4"

[Maxim]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some 15" totals near the lake.

[Money]

My first call:

 

Chicago: 12.6

DBQ: 6.3

MSN: 4.9

MKE: 5.7

OSH: 2.3

[Tom]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some 15" totals near the lake.

NYE 2014 storm Redux???  I remember I picked up 18" from that storm when all sudden done.

[Maxim]

NYE 2014 storm Redux???  I remember I picked up 18" from that storm when all sudden done.

Was thinking that too. Got about 17" from that one. It was a different set-up though, but there are some similarities.

[mlgamer]

D**n that's a perfect track just eight degrees too warm. Oh well.

 

Nah, more like a steady rain causes the temp to hold at 34F for 14 straight hours...a snow lover's perfect day...  

[Money]

Unless you're job or business depends on snow, I think it's silly to get really worked up over snow. Especially when winter is 4 months long and there will be plenty of chances down the road. 

[NEJeremy]

12z Euro...

Anybody have the snowfall maps for the Euro?

[Sleather]

are we looking at 10-1 ratios or higher?

kmdw has cumulative ratios of 13:1

[Tom]

Anybody have the snowfall maps for the Euro?

Maybe Money can post the ones he did from last night that are more accurate.  Wx Bell maps won't be a good gauge for your area.

[Tom]

LOT really hitting LES and near Blizzard conditions....

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1157 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
1112 AM CST

HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM SATURDAY
EVENING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION MODERATE
SNOW EVENT. ENERGY FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FROM A SOUTHWEST
CLOSED LOW WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHERN WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD AS STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
LOOKING AT LONG PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOWS STARTING
SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS LINGERING INTO LATE
SUNDAY. IF SYSTEM AND 850 MB LOW TRACK CONTINUES NORTHWARD SHIFT
ON GUIDANCE...HAVE CONCERN THAT PARTS OF SOUTHERN CWA MAY FLIRT
WITH MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRIMARILY ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...WITH RATIOS IMPROVING AS COLDER AIR OOZES SOUTHWARD.
FINALLY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT IN
LAKE ENHANCEMENT TRANSITIONING TO TRUE LAKE EFFECT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA.

DESPITE LONG DURATION SNOWS...HAZARD POSED BY THIS STORM IS LIKELY
TO BE MAGNIFIED BY STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SNOW WILL BE
INCREASINGLY FLUFFY...SO BLOWING SNOW DUE TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH COULD COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO RESULT IN NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OPEN AREAS AND ON THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT.
CONVERGENT LAKE BAND COULD ALSO RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ON THE LAKE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
GOING THERE.

 

[Tom]

Parts of SE WI/NE IL could see 30+ hours of consistent snowfall...you couldn't draw it up any nicer than this.

[Tom]

Man, where has Geo's & Tim been???  MIA...

[gabel23]

My only complaint for the day, with this storm missing my area that now puts my streak up to 2 years since my area has seen a winter storm warning!! I have been in WWA left and right; the last time I have seen a storm produce 6+ was in Feb and March 2013. Crazy, enjoy the storm though because you never know when you will see a streak like that........

[BLIZZARD09]

Kudos  to Tom for not giving up on this storm!

[BigDizBliz420]

SREF snowier for ORD again