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November 2015 Observations and Discussion

Geos

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in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Euro still showing an interesting snow event Day 7-10 from NE into the Lower Lakes.  Arctic HP focuses into the northern Plains and creates a thermal boundary Day 6 while a weak/sheared SLP develops near the Pan Handle and on Day 7 it tries to get organized as it moves northeast thru S IL/S IN.  

 

A widespread band of 3-6", locally a bit more, lays down from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/MI.  Certainly plenty of time to see this unfold and looking more interesting as this wave has potential to be our first real wintry system of the season as there will be enough early season arctic air in place.  The model is even seeing some LehS in SE WI and then eventually swings into NE IL/NW IN on the backside of this system.

 

Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty.  Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place.  Prime Cutter potential.

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Tom
Tom

Jim Flowers posted this Euro Snowfall map...  

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

This is not the first unprovoked similarity I have heard to that year. It's getting pretty eerie now. Lol. Similar but different story here but this one happened over a month ago. I posted a random qu

Jaycee
Jaycee

I have evolved from my shell. Wow this system next week. Oh boy, going to be a long season. Sorry school, looks like I'm burying my life in model watching again! Love the trends, it's been dry as bone

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty.  Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place.  Prime Cutter potential.

 

Sweet Tom. But, that's not how you kick-off a torch winter in the S. Lakes. Just sayin'

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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12z Euro still showing an interesting snow event Day 7-10 from NE into the Lower Lakes. Arctic HP focuses into the northern Plains and creates a thermal boundary Day 6 while a weak/sheared SLP develops near the Pan Handle and on Day 7 it tries to get organized as it moves northeast thru S IL/S IN.

 

A widespread band of 3-6", locally a bit more, lays down from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/MI. Certainly plenty of time to see this unfold and looking more interesting as this wave has potential to be our first real wintry system of the season as there will be enough early season arctic air in place. The model is even seeing some LehS in SE WI and then eventually swings into NE IL/NW IN on the backside of this system.

 

Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty. Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place. Prime Cutter potential.

Right on schedule. :-)

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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Posted

12z Euro still showing an interesting snow event Day 7-10 from NE into the Lower Lakes.  Arctic HP focuses into the northern Plains and creates a thermal boundary Day 6 while a weak/sheared SLP develops near the Pan Handle and on Day 7 it tries to get organized as it moves northeast thru S IL/S IN.  

 

A widespread band of 3-6", locally a bit more, lays down from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/MI.  Certainly plenty of time to see this unfold and looking more interesting as this wave has potential to be our first real wintry system of the season as there will be enough early season arctic air in place.  The model is even seeing some LehS in SE WI and then eventually swings into NE IL/NW IN on the backside of this system.

 

Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty.  Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place.  Prime Cutter potential.

This sounds great. Is this 2 runs in the row Euro has been showing this??

Also....GFS is just showing a dry cold front with H moving in, if Im seeing it correctly??

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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This sounds great. Is this 2 runs in the row Euro has been showing this??

Also....GFS is just showing a dry cold front with H moving in, if Im seeing it correctly??

Indeed, GFS/EURO not in agreement but lets see if GFS plays catch up.  The blocking pattern setting up on the Euro looks prime for west/east systems.  Let's see if the pattern turns a bit wild for Thanksgiving week.

 

12z Euro Ensembles scream Winter is here soon...some members are painting quite the start to a Winter with plenty of snow chances over the coming 2 weeks.

 

Check out the Day 8 500mb pattern...its not hard to find 2 nasty ridges (almost look like screamin' red eye balls)...Need I say more???  Day 10-15 the ridge hooks over the top and the fun and games begin.

 

Wait till you tap into some of that arctic air that has been brewing up this Autumn season and causing extensive sea ice/snow cover growth...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

 

You could almost see Nature giving us the signs before hand, but if you thought otherwise, maybe now is the time to jump on board.  I like the west-based Greenland block that is ready to Rock!  SE ridge looks like it wants to stay put also.

 

BTW, what a flip in the teleconnections all of a sudden on the Euro.  It's crazy to see the majority of 51 members flip from a +AO to a -AO, and a +NAO to a -NAO.  Get your shovels and snow boots ready boys and girls!  Ha!  :D

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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Indeed, GFS/EURO not in agreement but lets see if GFS plays catch up. The blocking pattern setting up on the Euro looks prime for west/east systems. Let's see if the pattern turns a bit wild for Thanksgiving week.

 

12z Euro Ensembles scream Winter is here soon...some members are painting quite the start to a Winter with plenty of snow chances over the coming 2 weeks.

 

Check out the Day 8 500mb pattern...its not hard to find 2 nasty ridges (almost look like screamin' red eye balls)...Need I say more??? Day 10-15 the ridge hooks over the top and the fun and games begin.

 

Wait till you tap into some of that arctic air that has been brewing up this Autumn season and causing extensive sea ice/snow cover growth...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

 

You could almost see Nature giving us the signs before hand, but if you thought otherwise, maybe now is the time to jump on board. I like the west-based Greenland block that is ready to Rock! SE ridge looks like it wants to stay put also.

 

BTW, what a flip in the teleconnections all of a sudden on the Euro. It's crazy to see the majority of 51 members flip from a +AO to a -AO, and a +NAO to a -NAO. Get your shovels and snow boots ready boys and girls! Ha! :D

I'm ready to party like it's 2009! :-) Anyone else?

 

If anyone was wondering how you get from a torch November to a cold December. Follow the progression from here on.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I'm ready to party like it's 2009! :-) Anyone else?

 

If anyone was wondering how you get from a torch November to a cold December. Follow the progression from here on.

Yup, rising heights throughout Canada are going to produce some very cold HP's that will funnel down the cold air.  Def trending towards the global models that have the ridging setting up in west/central Canada.  Day 7-10 on the Euro is a clear indicator of that.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

Posted
Posted

Well I'm with you there. Cold and dry is terrible.

I promise you I love tracking snowstorms. When I say I think december is going to be quite warm I am not trolling. There is plenty to support a warm december. I could very well be wrong.

 

The good thing is above normal doesnt have to mean no snow.

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Maxim Newbie

Maxim

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I promise you I love tracking snowstorms. When I say I think december is going to be quite warm I am not trolling. There is plenty to support a warm december. I could very well be wrong.

 

The good thing is above normal doesnt have to mean no snow.

I think anyone calling for a cold December would be trolling.

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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Then can you explain why you think this December will end up colder than average, please? Or is it just to fit your cold agenda.

I believe Tom and I have done a fair enough job explaining why. However there have been little to no explanations for warmth other than "The model says...".

 

A lot of what I have stated has only been modeled or is in the process of changing AFTER I stated it.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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If you're referring to convection/forcing at the dateline, you'd most likely be correct as I believe the MJO goes back into the COD. Haven't checked it lately but that was where it was headed last time I checked.

 

MJO is supposed to gain more amplitude, so for now not looking at the COD anytime sooon.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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00z GFS trying to catch up to Euro. Now showing some precip late next week along the frontal boundary in IA/IL/WI.

 

Looks like this is the first legit shot for accumulating snow for some of us!

 

 

Was a cold day today. High of 43°. Getting a nice long freeze tonight. Currently 30°.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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