Typical fluctuations this far out. It's still coming. Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 6 minutes

I would say stable models. Especially if you're looking at the ensembles.

It’s over. 3yrs ago today anyway. IMG_0700.mov

Not sure what to make of the ECMWF graphcast. It has a hugely amplified ridge just off the coast by day 9 and 10. Very different than any other model. At face value it would be dry and fairly cold. Not going to post the graphics because they suck so bad (bad view and resolution).

Glad to see it back up and running. Unfortunate model trends.