Yesterday was yet another dry and sunny day. The official H/L was 66/36 there was no rainfall for the month GR is now at 0.88” that is a departure of -1.45” since September 1st there has been just 2.20” for a departure of -3.56” For the year there has been 29.96” that is a departure of -2.17”. For today the average H/L is now down to 59/41 the record high of 80 was set in 1910 and 1920. The coldest high of 33 was set in 1930. The record low of 19 was set in 1974 the warmest low of 61 was set in 1920. The most rainfall of 0.91” fell in 2011, the most snowfall of 4.5” fell in 1989. Last year the H/L was 57/52 and there was 0.29” of rainfall. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 37 that is the current temperature with clear skies.

We still have a while to go, and we do not know how this winter will play out. Last winter Grand Rapids had its 2nd warmest December on record with a mean of 38.3 January had a mean of 27.1 and February had a mean of 35.4 good for the warmest February on record. The meteorological winter had a mean of 33.6. The winter season (October to April) only had 47.5” of snowfall with 31.3” of that falling in January with most of that falling in a two week period. Since 1950 all winters that had less than 50” of snowfall had more snowfall the next winter. So that is a good guess for this winter that more than 50” will fall. That said here is a list of winter weather Warnings and Advisories criteria. I will try to post this information again as we get closer tot the winter season. Winter weather related Warnings, Watches and Advisories are issued by your local National Weather Service office. Each office knows the local area and will issue Warnings, Watches or Advisories based on local criteria. For example, the amount of snow that triggers a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Northern Plains is typically much higher than the amount needed to trigger a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Southeast. Blizzard Warnings are issued for frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more. A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely, leading to whiteout conditions making travel extremely difficult. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle and wait for help to arrive. Winter Storm Warnings are issued for a significant winter weather event including snow, ice, sleet or blowing snow or a combination of these hazards. Travel will become difficult or impossible in some situations. Delay your travel plans until conditions improve. Ice Storm Warnings are usually issued for ice accumulation of around 1/4 inch or more. This amount of ice accumulation will make travel dangerous or impossible and likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches. Travel is strongly discouraged. Wind Chill Warnings are issued for a combination of very cold air and strong winds that will create dangerously low wind chill values. This level of wind chill will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Avoid going outdoors and wear warm protective clothing if you must venture outside. See the NWS Wind Chill Chart. Lake Effect Snow Warnings are issued when widespread or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy showers are expected to produce significant snowfall accumulation. Lake effect snow usually develops in narrow bands and impacts a limited area. These bands can produce very heavy snow with sudden restrictions in visibility. Driving conditions may become hazardous at times. And for advisories Winter Weather Advisories are issued when snow, blowing snow, ice, sleet, or a combination of these wintry elements is expected but conditions should not be hazardous enough to meet warning criteria. Be prepared for winter driving conditions and possible travel difficulties. Use caution when driving. Wind Chill Advisories are issued when low wind chill temperatures are expected but will not reach local warning criteria. Extremely cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chill readings. If you must venture outdoors, take precautions against frostbite and hypothermia. Lake Effect Snow Advisory are issued for widespread or localized lake effect snowfall accumulation (and blowing snow) remaining below warning criteria. Expects lake effect snow showers and assume travel will be difficult in some areas. Some localized snow bands will be intense enough to produce several inches in a few areas with sudden restrictions in visibility.

Big ole four corners low now making for some snow in the New Mexico and Colorado high country. This is hopefully a rain maker as it moves across the country.

55-56 is probably the best PDO analog right now. This is why I say that they are probably using the PDO. October 1955 was the only year lower than this October. They also had a big +EPO in October, which models are showing in the long range right now We had a big -NAO Sept 19 - Oct 11 this year, so this is a good H5 match + a few weeks.

1956-57 sure fits the look the CPC is expecting this winter.