Another 86F day with comfortable dewpoints in the 60’s

Day 4 (4-run trend)

Some interesting trends buried in that WSJ poll... Trump at 47%, Harris at 45%. That is the complete inverse of the numbers from their August poll. It's 49/46 in favor of Trump when "probably vote for" is added as an option. Trump's favorability rating has gone up 12 points since December of last year (+3 from their August poll). Harris has gone up 10 during that time (-3 from August). Biden went down 3 over the past year. JD Vance favorability is up 5 points from August while Tim Walz is down 2 points. Harris sits at 54% disapproval rating in her job as VP. That's only a few points away from Biden's number (57%). Meanwhile, 52% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President. On 'who you trust more to handle issues' Trump has a 15 point advantage on immigration after having only a 7 point advantage in August. He's +12 over her on the economy (+8 in August). He's +8 on inflation (+5 in August). He's +9 over her on crime (+1 in August). Handling Israel's war with Hamas/Hezbollah has him +15 over Harris (+8 in August) and the war in Ukraine he's +4 points. The only issues Kamala leads on is abortion at +14 (which is smaller than the +20 in August) and social security/medicare at +5. On 'who would be more likely to bring change', Trump leads Harris by nine points. On 'who has a vision for the future' Trump leads by two. Those last two bullet points are pretty brutal. These voters picked Trump on the vast majority of issues and his numbers have only increased since August, in some cases fairly substantially. Add to that the Harris campaign's attempt to brand her as the "change candidate" and the one who's "turning the page and looking towards the future" has apparently fallen on deaf ears. Trump leads her on both. And the vast majority of voters say they want change. Certainly not a poll that would point to a Kamala victory in thirteen days.

Vancouver: 9-15" Seattle: 6-12" Tacoma - Olympia: 8-14" Portland: 2-39" (my annual snowfall prediction)

East Stanwood at 550’: 36” Seattle: Trace Portland 0.00”