A little TURBULENCE off the WD…

We do have a winter weather advisory for Saturday night. 2-4 inches. Sounds like the snow levels will then rise. Not yet sure about next week, though Tuesday night could be interesting. The point and click forecasts by the NWS for our area are often horrible. Sometimes very accurate, but I've seen it say rain and 45 degrees when the zone forecast calls for a high in the mid to upper 20s with heavy snow, which did verify. For Leavenworth at least, the most accurate model I've seen is the UW-WRF 1 1/3K. Time after time it gets our snow totals correct. When we had 36-40 inches of snow in January 2022 in 24 hours, it absolutely nailed the snow totals. For Saturday night it is showing 4 inches.

This system next week is looking like one heck of a beautiful November rainstorm w/ strong winds and cold temps. Readings in the upper 30s throughout the day to low 40s w wcf in the low 30s. Some wet snow cannot be ruled out mixing in. This is perfect, a week b4 Thanksgiving, gets you in the holiday spirit. If this was a month later, this could have been a whole different scenario here in S MI.

Beautiful day here in God’s Country.

Latest Discussion from NOAA: Another upper low is forecast to eject out of the southern Rockies and move across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, weakening as it lifts across Minnesota. The associated sfc occluded front is forecast to lift into Se Mi and will provide the next chance for rain. The main forecast concerns next week evolve around the potential phasing of another short wave lifting out of the central Rockies with an upper low forecast to drop southeastward out of the northern plains. There is agreement among the 12z deterministic solutions in a phased system, resulting in a rapid intensification of sfc low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. This solution would pose the risk of strong winds and rain, possibly mixed with some snow. Over the next several days, there will be fluctuations in timing of this phasing which will have implications as to the location and degree of sfc low intensification.