12z GFS showing a few systems ahead the first is a small system that trys to get going Monday. Then as James mentioned a refresher for Iowa and the Lakes region.

Love it! Relish the moment and enjoy the holiday with your family.

A light shower passing through now... crisis averted. The lawn sure needs the rain.

Looking like SE Iowa might be the sweet spot.

I'm just about ready to dial in 6-10" here. There aren't a lot of failure modes for this system here... temps don't look like an issue for at least 95% of the storm, convection down south doesn't look like a big deal (in terms of potential moisture robbing), and duration looks pretty long. I'm not expecting that great of ratios though due to the dgz not being particularly deep (not that it's terribly shallow), so would probably go with something like 10-12:1 around here. The one thing that gives me a little pause is the hostile track of the mid-level features, all of which look to pass nearby or to my north, which makes me wonder if there could be an undermodeled dry slot. But even if that were to occur, the translation speed of the mid-level features doesn't look too fast, so a worst case scenario would maybe be 12-18 hours of snow instead of 18-24 hours. All in all, for being 2-3 days out, I have relatively high confidence in exceeding 6", with a higher end scenario of double digits not out of the question.