Euro looks like it will go somewhere similar to last run

The cutoffs are screwing everything up.

At day 7... the 00Z ECMWF and the 00Z GFS are close to identical. Day 7 seems to be the threshold for model agreement most of the time.

Its obviously some exaggeration on both sides. And it is also possible for our traditionally wet and gloomy springs to be getting a little better and still pretty crappy. Its not hard to see how both can be true.

The same people who can't admit that the GFS extreme cold scenarios are outlandish are the same ones who act like it's all over once the models go bad. Like a roller coaster. I'm rather unmoved by these inferior models. I don't think the trends are "devastating"... There is some opportunity ahead and the overall big picture didn't budge much since a few days ago.