Even with the trend to knock off some precip on the northern fringe, I actually do still have reasonable confidence that several inches could fall around Chicago. The main difference from yesterday is lower confidence about whether those amounts will extend back to ORD as there may have to be a little more of a reliance on lake enhancement/effect and less synoptic snow if current trends hold. Lake effect wise, this setup is limited by rather low inversion heights, but there will be good delta T values and forecast soundings indicate low level omega overlapping in the dgz, so I do not expect pixie dust lake effect. A little unclear on the exact details of all of this like whether the synoptic snow shield will still be in the area or if it will be more of a standalone band of lake effect snow. Also would mention that there are some indications that the lake band may start north of the city before sagging south. So all in all, still some details to sort out.

HRRR is nice and moist in Kansas into KC with round one. Round 2 getting central and eastern MO. Might be some great snow great under the initial WAA finger

But the Operational!

Salina was reporting light snow a few hours ago.