Geos Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Your leaving in the perfect time to avoid the heat and humidity! I bet your happy about that, huh??? Haven't seen a full blown heat wave since 2012 so I think we are due. If I recall, ORD averages a 100F day every 3 years so we are over due. We will come close to hitting that mark before this month is out I think. Yeah I am happy about that.Wish I could have taken a long vacation in 2012 to avoid that summer.At least the first half of this summer wasn't all that hot. Up here it's a 100 degree day every 5 years I bet. Even toward August when it gets that hot, a lake breeze will kick up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Strange day Tuesday. Ran into and out of 3 heavy cells while my car thermo bounced from 90º down to 75º and back up. Around 7pm at home, the south side of Marshall was fringed by a couple of decent cells and apparently a random cloud-to-ground strike caused some sort of spike in voltage that killed a couple transformers including the one on my street. Spent 5 hours in the dark and hot house worrying about the food going bad if they couldn't get it fixed in time. Oh, and for the trouble the rain barely dampened the ground and tops of trees. http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif Sure could use tonight to come through with some real qpf Edit: Good Luck GEOS! Your regular contributions here will certainly be missed, especially for your fellow Illinois posters. My work has taken me back to St. Joseph across the street from the big lake. Glad to be here so I guess keeping my avatar pic was lucky charm. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 13, 2016 Report Share Posted July 13, 2016 Today's storm event didn't pan out for me and points north. Again, the blame can be placed on mcs action to the south. Our best two or three severe chances this summer have fallen victim to this. We should have a better chance this weekend as Missouri should be capped. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Going to be in Washington State for awhile starting next week trying to see if I can land a entry level job in my field out there. Might be back in the Midwest by late autumn if things don't go well. Seen work in my field around here, but it's pretty much all mid to senior level positions.You'll still see me around often enough, I'll just be making posts in the western threads a bit more.Good luck Geos! You were always a great contributor and best of all never contributed to the "fights" on here. You always tried to keep things cordial and respectful! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Strange day Tuesday. Ran into and out of 3 heavy cells while my car thermo bounced from 90º down to 75º and back up. Around 7pm at home, the south side of Marshall was fringed by a couple of decent cells and apparently a random cloud-to-ground strike caused some sort of spike in voltage that killed a couple transformers including the one on my street. Spent 5 hours in the dark and hot house worrying about the food going bad if they couldn't get it fixed in time. Oh, and for the trouble the rain barely dampened the ground and tops of trees. Sure could use tonight to come through with some real qpf Edit: Good Luck GEOS! Your regular contributions here will certainly be missed, especially for your fellow Illinois posters. My work has taken me back to St. Joseph across the street from the big lake. Glad to be here so I guess keeping my avatar pic was lucky charm. Thanks. So you're moving closer to the lake now. That's cool. Got a little rain here tonight. Really only served to make it more humid. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Good luck Geos! You were always a great contributor and best of all never contributed to the "fights" on here. You always tried to keep things cordial and respectful! Thanks Jeremy.I'll be around from time to time. Thinking grad school might be the path, but I going to try this plan until October and see if it works. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Tons of neat photos of rainbows on social media yesterday after the storms had passed Chicago last night just before sunset... This one is real cool looking with a lightning strike underneath a rainbow... Looking ahead towards this weekend, yet another picture perfect weekend on tap with temps in the low/mid 80's and ample sunshine. Friday should feel phenomenal with a wind off the lake and temps in the mid/upper 70's. This has been one of the better summer's in recent memory thus far...that's until the heat builds in next week! A/C units will be humming non stop in the neighborhood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 No surprise that the recent JMA Weeklies today are showing a healthy ridge over 3/4th of the CONUS, except for, take a wild guess...where Geo's is heading! PAC NW looks to cool down Week 1 & 2 while we bake in the heat. The model continues seeing a ridge Week 3 & 4 over the Midwest/Lakes, but I'm skeptical b/c once we start heading into Aug we should be seeing more fronts slide through according to the LRC. Then again, this is when the jet stream is in it's weakest point so the LRC pattern may have to adjust a bit. On a side note, notice what is building near the Pole and near Alaska. Looks to me like the pattern up there is turning colder during what is normally the peak of the arctic sea ice melt season. The Monsoon season will head into high gear as the Anticyclone develops in the central Plains. Steering winds around this massive heat dome will start pumping both GOM and Pacific moisture into the desert regions and inter mountain west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Thanks. So you're moving closer to the lake now. That's cool. Got a little rain here tonight. Really only served to make it more humid. I wish - lol I work at the coast but still live about 80 miles inland @ Marshall. Working on a contract basis for now. If I become direct, then may be the right time to relocate. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 I wanted to share how miserable it was here in July 2012. I remember it was bad but I guess I forgot how horrible it was. Perhaps the worst part was only getting .01" of rain the entire month when it was that brutally hot. I know we have a hot stretch coming. I just hope it doesn't last as long and is as dry as 2012 was. DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR================================================================================1 95 72 84 8 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 22 170 M M 7 26 1802 96 75 86 10 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 10.9 21 190 M M 1 25 1703 99 77 88 12 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 20 200 M M 2 23 2104 100 78 89 13 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 12.7 26 170 M M 2 32 1805 102 79 91 15 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 10.7 20 150 M M 5 23 1606 104 78 91 14 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 18 200 M M 2 23 2007 89 73 81 4 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 10.1 20 340 M M 5 23 3308 86 70 78 1 0 13 0.01 0.0 0 8.7 17 30 M M 8 23 309 91 67 79 2 0 14 T 0.0 0 7.1 17 60 M M 5 22 5010 88 63 76 -1 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 8.3 17 20 M M 1 25 3011 89 63 76 -1 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 8 110 M M 3 12 11012 95 70 83 6 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 15 190 M M 4 29 10013 95 76 86 9 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 7.5 14 140 M M 4 17 15014 97 72 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 17 190 M M 4 21 19015 99 73 86 9 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 22 130 M M 6 25 14016 96 74 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 10.8 21 180 M M 2 28 17017 99 77 88 11 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 9.3 20 150 M M 2 24 15018 99 79 89 12 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 16 180 M M 3 21 17019 98 71 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 13 100 M M 2 16 8020 96 73 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 8.0 14 120 M M 4 17 13021 98 75 87 10 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 10.9 18 160 M M 5 24 17022 105 75 90 13 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 10.9 23 190 M M 3 28 20023 105 74 90 13 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 18 160 M M 3 23 14024 103 84 94 17 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 12.5 25 160 M M 1 30 16025 106 77 92 15 0 27 T 0.0 0 11.7 31 340 M M 3 3 39 35026 99 70 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 6.6 21 280 M M 4 32 28027 86 64 75 -2 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 7.6 20 330 M M 2 24 35028 91 66 79 2 0 14 0.00 0.0 0 14.5 30 130 M M 7 39 13029 98 71 85 9 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 8.1 15 320 M M 3 20 35030 100 73 87 11 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 360 M M 5 17 36031 99 68 84 8 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 12 100 M M 4 15 100================================================================================SM 3003 2257 0 624 0.01 0.0 275.0 M 112================================================================================AV 96.9 72.8 8.9 FASTST M M 4 MAX(MPH) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 I wanted to share how miserable it was here in July 2012. I remember it was bad but I guess I forgot how horrible it was. Perhaps the worst part was only getting .01" of rain the entire month when it was that brutally hot. I know we have a hot stretch coming. I just hope it doesn't last as long and is as dry as 2012 was. DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR================================================================================ 1 95 72 84 8 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 22 170 M M 7 26 1802 96 75 86 10 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 10.9 21 190 M M 1 25 1703 99 77 88 12 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 11.3 20 200 M M 2 23 2104 100 78 89 13 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 12.7 26 170 M M 2 32 1805 102 79 91 15 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 10.7 20 150 M M 5 23 1606 104 78 91 14 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 18 200 M M 2 23 2007 89 73 81 4 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 10.1 20 340 M M 5 23 3308 86 70 78 1 0 13 0.01 0.0 0 8.7 17 30 M M 8 23 309 91 67 79 2 0 14 T 0.0 0 7.1 17 60 M M 5 22 5010 88 63 76 -1 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 8.3 17 20 M M 1 25 3011 89 63 76 -1 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 5.7 8 110 M M 3 12 11012 95 70 83 6 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 6.3 15 190 M M 4 29 10013 95 76 86 9 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 7.5 14 140 M M 4 17 15014 97 72 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 17 190 M M 4 21 19015 99 73 86 9 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 22 130 M M 6 25 14016 96 74 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 10.8 21 180 M M 2 28 17017 99 77 88 11 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 9.3 20 150 M M 2 24 15018 99 79 89 12 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 16 180 M M 3 21 17019 98 71 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 13 100 M M 2 16 8020 96 73 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 8.0 14 120 M M 4 17 13021 98 75 87 10 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 10.9 18 160 M M 5 24 17022 105 75 90 13 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 10.9 23 190 M M 3 28 20023 105 74 90 13 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 18 160 M M 3 23 14024 103 84 94 17 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 12.5 25 160 M M 1 30 16025 106 77 92 15 0 27 T 0.0 0 11.7 31 340 M M 3 3 39 35026 99 70 85 8 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 6.6 21 280 M M 4 32 28027 86 64 75 -2 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 7.6 20 330 M M 2 24 35028 91 66 79 2 0 14 0.00 0.0 0 14.5 30 130 M M 7 39 13029 98 71 85 9 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 8.1 15 320 M M 3 20 35030 100 73 87 11 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 15 360 M M 5 17 36031 99 68 84 8 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 4.7 12 100 M M 4 15 100================================================================================SM 3003 2257 0 624 0.01 0.0 275.0 M 112================================================================================AV 96.9 72.8 8.9 FASTST M M 4 MAX(MPH)Coincidentally, the triple digit heat that is being forecast in your region next week is about the same time it hit that level in 2012. I don't think the heat will last as long as 2012. The pattern back then was much different than this year. By the beginning of August we should see fronts try to push the ridge back west along the west coast/inter mountain region. I don't think that will be the last of the heat to hit in August though. Hopefully you can get a MCS to fire up during this heat wave later in the month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Here is CPC's updated 3-4 week outlook which breaks down the ridge as we head into the first couple weeks of August. It did a pretty good job in the beginning of July illustrating the heat to close out July. I'm considering this to be a valid outcome given this year's LRC pattern where a transient pattern has been common up until the warm phase of this year's pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 15, 2016 Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 @NEJeremy, 2012 had already reached maximum levels of 'sucktitude' before July even got here. We've been pretty fortunate to not quite reach those epic proportions so early this year. It's coming though for a little while at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 Deadhorse, AK hit an all-time high temp of 88F the other day. The city sits on the north slope of Alaska right off the Arctic Ocean. Over the next week, a big time flip in the weather pattern is expected and some spots may see some summer time snow flakes mixed in with precip. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-148.412&lat=70.208#.V4jni_krLIU Barrow, AK will prob be the coldest spot unless your in the mountain range of the Brooks Range... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=71.2905771280005&lon=-156.78871946399974#.V4jofvkrLIU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 15, 2016 Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 @ Tom Awesome rainbow photos! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 15, 2016 Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 Coincidentally, the triple digit heat that is being forecast in your region next week is about the same time it hit that level in 2012. I don't think the heat will last as long as 2012. The pattern back then was much different than this year. By the beginning of August we should see fronts try to push the ridge back west along the west coast/inter mountain region. I don't think that will be the last of the heat to hit in August though. Hopefully you can get a MCS to fire up during this heat wave later in the month. NE looks to have gotten a good batch of qpf this morning per radar. This is not 2012 thankfully!! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2016 What a difference a day makes. Currently sitting at 74/59 with a heavy overcast and a brisk wind off the lake...showers are making their way down from the north as an unstable airmass is trying to produce some moisture. In the extended, looks like the ridge will try and break down near the Midwest/Lakes by late the following weekend. According to the LRC, we should start seeing fronts roll on through late month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 16, 2016 Report Share Posted July 16, 2016 Also to add to Tom's comment, it appears that the moisture enhanced CFS (per WxBell's Joe D) would be suggestive of strong troughing and cooler than average temperature returning to the central CONUS in and throughout ASO with the West normal and the east ridged out and roasting. I'll take this for late summer and early fall any year. Maybe an earlier than normal start to a new lrc? We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2016 Beautiful start to the weekend...an epic day is in the forecast...certainly is calling for a beach day and maybe some V ball down at North Ave beach. We've been blessed with fantastic weather during the weekends this summer. Tomorrow may be a different story as storms are in the forecast. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1468680544910 Later next week, the HEAT is ON!!!! Surprised it got so chilly up near the U.P. of MI last night... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2016 While summer time snows in the Arctic regions do happen, they haven't been as frequent lately...this summer may be a different story as the pattern is setting the stage for a cooler than normal regime over the coming few weeks. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016071612/gfs_asnow_ak_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 16, 2016 Report Share Posted July 16, 2016 I wonder where a fella could find a statistical list on how often it snows in the summer up there or which years. May be a hint to why models are seeing a cooler ASO over the central plains this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2016 Surprised to see a few spots in the UP dipped below freezing yesterday morning... An approaching line of weakening storms is heading our way. We need the rain, esp up near the WI/IL state line where it's abnormally dry. http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160717.1326.gif Latest HRRR model showing decent redevelopment after 6pm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016071712/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2016 Looks like skies are clearing up pretty quick in NW IL. Should lead to destabilize the atmosphere for hopefully more stronger/juicier storms. Been noticing the models are backing off the heat near the Lakes as we may be near the leading edge of the NW Flow with chances of storms. The Plains still look like they will bake in the heat starting tomorrow through the entire week. 00z EPS begins retrograding the Heat Dome towards the west by late this weekend which is according to plan. Thankfully, it's not a 2012 repeat! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071700/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016071700/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 17, 2016 Report Share Posted July 17, 2016 Looks like skies are clearing up pretty quick in NW IL. Should lead to destabilize the atmosphere for hopefully more stronger/juicier storms. More storms in western Iowa are spreading clouds back over Iowa, so we won't be destabilizing. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2016 More storms in western Iowa are spreading clouds back over Iowa, so we won't be destabilizing.Your area not so much, but out this way we have a window of a few hours which will help keep enough fuel for those storms that are developing in IA right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 It appears that on the Euro the heat ridge building as we speak could be rather transient over the next 6-7 days. It then reestablishes itself over the west coast days 8-10 while we cool off. This is really great if you hate summertime heat. Edit: I guess Tom already covered it. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 Could Sioux Falls, SD reach 100F on Thursday? http://pics3.city-data.com/forum/images/smilies/eek.gifhttp://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/weather/172524d1468847438-summer-2016-northern-hemisphere-siouxfalswxfrcast2.pngVery hot temperatures in Eau Claire, WI with highs in the mid 90's on Wednesday and Thursday. Lows are in the mid 70"s very warm! And don't forget it will be humid!http://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/weather/172525d1468847476-summer-2016-northern-hemisphere-eauclairewiwxforcast8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 When I left Muvico last night in Rosemont, the skies were lighting up to the south. We had some powerful electric storms that blossomed just to my south. It was one of those warm, breezy and humid summer nights that I enjoy, esp when there is an active storm in the area. A report of a Tornado hit the SW burbs near Kankakee county...nigh time funnel clouds were captured. Here are some lightning shots... 3-6" of rainfall fell causing flash flooding... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 Awesome pictures! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 When I left Muvico last night in Rosemont, the skies were lighting up to the south. We had some powerful electric storms that blossomed just to my south. It was one of those warm, breezy and humid summer nights that I enjoy, esp when there is an active storm in the area. A report of a Tornado hit the SW burbs near Kankakee county...nigh time funnel clouds were captured. Here are some lightning shots... 3-6" of rainfall fell causing flash flooding... Fantastic pictures Tom! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 It's interesting what happens to the western shores of LM when a SW flow develops and colder waters upwell along the western shores.... http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif Water temps in the mid 40's near Milwaukee showed up yesterday...brrrrr... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 We are reaching the peak of the summer arctic melt season and thus far, the arctic has seen at times near normal temps to slightly below normal temps. The CFSv2 had the right idea so far. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png Take a look at Greenland, the AGW crowd was sounding off alarms earlier on in Spring and June, but has since cooled of considerably and a below normal melt pattern has been established. http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/images/greenland_melt_area_plot_tmb.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 It's that time of year when I start looking at the snowfall maps to get an idea of where the CFSv2 is seeing snowfall begin to accumulate in the Northern Hemisphere. Last year, I remember the model saw snows develop near AK/Yukon territories in mid/late Sept and a bit near the Archipelago regions, but more so, east of Hudson Bay towards eastern CA. Last year we saw a dominant +PNA/+NAO which is a strong correlation where the cold is usually centered in Canada. Western Siberia got off to a real fast start last October and this year the model is seeing snows develop farther east. We'll see how this evolves over the coming weeks/months. The Eurasian Snow cover in October was ranked 6th out of the last 48 years. October 1st... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/18/basis00/namk/weas/16100100_1800.gif October 11th... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/18/basis00/namk/weas/16101100_1800.gif In Siberia, snows start falling in early Sept... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/18/basis00/noas/weas/16090812_1800.gif By October, we are seeing snow cover begin to expand... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/18/basis00/noas/weas/16100112_1800.gif October 11th... http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/07/18/basis00/noas/weas/16101100_1800.gif I'll post these maps from time to time. I do remember last year it did a very good job. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 @ Tom's maps /\ - this is the JULY thd, right?? BOORAH! for July 2016.. woke up @ (idk 1am?) to quickly run around the house closing windows as another windy deluge was hitting mby! That makes decent +RN events on the 1st, 8th, 13th, and 18th and this one swept along 94 all the way from the lakeshore. Puddles the entire way to work this morning. That's what I've been hoping to see. Really refreshing to have things rinsed off by nature and the dustiness suppressed (allergic to dust). Here we are, at 3rd week in July and shades of 2012 are fading fast. Not saying it can't happen, but I feel time is running out on something close to a 2012 drought and heat combo. Just mho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 @ Tom's maps /\ - this is the JULY thd, right?? BOORAH! for July 2016.. woke up @ (idk 1am?) to quickly run around the house closing windows as another windy deluge was hitting mby! That makes decent +RN events on the 1st, 8th, 13th, and 18th and this one swept along 94 all the way from the lakeshore. Puddles the entire way to work this morning. That's what I've been hoping to see. Really refreshing to have things rinsed off by nature and the dustiness suppressed (allergic to dust). Here we are, at 3rd week in July and shades of 2012 are fading fast. Not saying it can't happen, but I feel time is running out on something close to a 2012 drought and heat combo. Just mhoHey man, glad you got your drenching rains finally! I was thinking about your area when these storms started blossoming and almost heading due East at the time. Doesn't it feel refreshing to finally have some rains?? To answer your question, yes, those are from today's runs of the CFSv2. I'm just doing this for fun and/or case study to track how the model does. It's been doing good so far in the Arctic, let's see how it performs regarding snow (I know, I know...its summer!)...why in the world would I post these maps in July...bc I'm a fanatic of snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 Hey man, glad you got your drenching rains finally! I was thinking about your area when these storms started blossoming and almost heading due East at the time. Doesn't it feel refreshing to finally have some rains?? To answer your question, yes, those are from today's runs of the CFSv2. I'm just doing this for fun and/or case study to track how the model does. It's been doing good so far in the Arctic, let's see how it performs regarding snow (I know, I know...its summer!)...why in the world would I post these maps in July...bc I'm a fanatic of snow! My jab wasn't for posting the outlook maps themselves, only for posting them here in the July daily thd. Kinda like the whole "Christmas in July" thing, I never got that one either - lol. Other forums often have an outlook thread for the next season by now. Maybe you should(ve) start(ed) one with those nice maps - hint, hint Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 My jab wasn't for posting the outlook maps themselves, only for posting them here in the July daily thd. Kinda like the whole "Christmas in July" thing, I never got that one either - lol. Other forums often have an outlook thread for the next season by now. Maybe you should(ve) start(ed) one with those nice maps - hint, hint Ahh, ha...gotcha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 18, 2016 Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 Our forecast heat seems to have been backed off quite a bit here locally. I remember looking at maps last week and by now we should have started the heat wave. The 95+ temps don't start now until Wednesday and only last a couple of days, before it cools back down to normal levels. We'll see if the heat returns next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 A lot of real estate covered by Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings and Heat Advisories... http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png Local forecast is calling for mid/upper 90's on Thu & Fri with Heat Indices peaking up to 115F on Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2016 My jab wasn't for posting the outlook maps themselves, only for posting them here in the July daily thd. Kinda like the whole "Christmas in July" thing, I never got that one either - lol. Other forums often have an outlook thread for the next season by now. Maybe you should(ve) start(ed) one with those nice maps - hint, hint I went ahead and fired one up... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1369-preliminary-discussion-for-upcoming-2016-2017-fall-and-winter-season/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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