April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Perhaps, but I think those models tend to heavily favor persistence as timing moves up. Wouldn't put too much stock in it.

I don't put much emphasis on seasonal modeling. That said, in this case it's a solution that has plenty of analog support, at least to open the warm season.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm now after yesterday at above avg precip for the month of April.

 

There hasn't been any substantial rain here since April 13th, looks like we're getting shadowed again.

[ShawniganLake]

There hasn't been any substantial rain here since April 13th, looks like we're getting shadowed again.

Is your location much drier than the airport? YYJ has already locked up a wet month, even if it doesn't rain anymore. Close to 3/4" above average for the month.

[TT-SEA]

Is your location much drier than the airport? YYJ has already locked up a wet month, even if it doesn't rain anymore. Close to 3/4" above average for the month.

 

The entire region has been beyond crazy wet for going on 3 months... and we have one member on the west side complaining about the lack of rain and worried about drought.  

 

This is unprecedented rain down here... in terms of amount and unbelievable persistence.   And its going to be getting worse.  

[ShawniganLake]

The entire region has been beyond crazy wet for the going on 3 months... and we have one member on the west side complaining about the lack of rain and worried about drought.

 

This is unprecedented rain down here... in terms of amount and unbelievable persistence. And its going to be getting worse.

The rainshadow over Victoria can create a pretty tight precip gradient as you head SE.

[Jesse]

The entire region has been beyond crazy wet for going on 3 months... and we have one member on the west side complaining about the lack of rain and worried about drought.

 

This is unprecedented rain down here... in terms of amount and unbelievable persistence. And its going to be getting worse.

Olympic Rain shadow....Says something about the persistence of the trajectory of the rainfall the last few months.

[Front Ranger]

The entire region has been beyond crazy wet for going on 3 months... and we have one member on the west side complaining about the lack of rain and worried about drought.

 

This is unprecedented rain down here... in terms of amount and unbelievable persistence. And its going to be getting worse.

Bigly disaster!

[TT-SEA]

Olympic Rain shadow....Says something about the persistence of the trajectory of the rainfall the last few months.

 

For sure.

[IbrChris]

Bigly disaster!

 Better cancel the community garden this year. It's a total loss.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Is your location much drier than the airport? YYJ has already locked up a wet month, even if it doesn't rain anymore. Close to 3/4" above average for the month.

 

Yep, we've only received about half of what the airport has had so far this month. The airport is a little rainier than this location on average, but not by that much, it's usually more like 10~20% more. Especially on historically rainy Aprils like 2013, where this area actually received more rain than the airport. The patterns this year have really exaggerated the rain shadow in this area.

[stuffradio]

 Better cancel the community garden this year. It's a total loss.

Sarcasm aside, you're not far off...

[Phil]

Same analogs continue to cycle on the 00z GFS calculation.

 

Into May on latest guidance, and 1993, 1991, and 1951 continue to lead the pack.

[IbrChris]

Same analogs continue to cycle on the 00z GFS calculation.

 

Into May on latest guidance, and 1993, 1991, and 1951 continue to lead the pack.

1993...year without a summer in the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

1993...year without a summer in the PNW.

 

And 1951 was an incredible summer.

 

May of 1993 was pretty decent and August - October of 1993 was spectacular.    July was really the oddball that year.   And that was true in the Midwest as well.   Incredible rain.   Entire towns were moved to higher ground along the Mississippi.   

[TT-SEA]

Same analogs continue to cycle on the 00z GFS calculation.

 

Into May on latest guidance, and 1993, 1991, and 1951 continue to lead the pack.

 

2004 is the top analog on the 00Z GFS at D+8

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

[Phil]

2004 is the top analog on the 00Z GFS at D+8

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

Which analog shows up most frequently?

 

Generally, I'd recommend monitoring the analogs over a more extended period of time, by frequency, to avoid intraseasonal contamination. Over the last few months, the years I listed have dominated overall.

[IbrChris]

And 1951 was an incredible summer.

 

May of 1993 was pretty decent and August - October of 1993 was spectacular.    July was really the oddball that year.   And that was true in the Midwest as well.   Incredible rain.   Entire towns were moved to higher ground along the Mississippi.   

Good point. I forgot about the great floods of 1993 in the Midwest. My great-grandfather owned a home along the Missouri River in central MO that flooded up to the second floor...even though normally the house sits a good 25 feet above river level.

[Phil]

And 1951 was an incredible summer.

 

May of 1993 was pretty decent and August - October of 1993 was spectacular. July was really the oddball that year. And that was true in the Midwest as well. Incredible rain. Entire towns were moved to higher ground along the Mississippi.

JJA 1951 was also slightly cooler than average over most of the region. Seems to be a common theme in the best tropical forcing analogs.

[Phil]

Most enjoyable paper I've read this year. Towards a better understanding of thermomechanical exchange through the tropopause.

 

The "Leaky Rigid Lid" hypothesis:

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAS-D-12-065.1

[TT-SEA]

JJA 1951 was also slightly cooler than average over most of the region. Seems to be a common theme in the best tropical forcing analogs.

Tenperature is sort of irrelevant... 1951 and 1993 are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of rainy days in June and July. And in terms of enjoyability for most people.

 

1951 was spectacular in June and July... and 1993 was a complete mess.

 

Our climate is very different than yours. We don't get 2 inches of rain in an hour after a hot and sunny day and do it again the next day. We can spread 2 inches out across 20 days in the warm season and have clouds and cool weather most of that time.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows 4-5 inches of rain across the region next week.   

 

That is simply incredible for being almost May and given how much rain we have seen over the last 3 months.  

[Timmy]

00Z ECMWF shows 4-5 inches of rain across the region next week.

 

That is simply incredible for being almost May and given how much rain we have seen over the last 3 months.

We're due

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF also backed off the aggressiveness of the trough digging into the intermountain west next week as I suspected will ultimately be the case.   Its not really a major pattern change and the run ends up right back where we started.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-x5GWtw.png

[Jesse]

The 00Z ECMWF also backed off the aggressiveness of the trough digging into the intermountain west next week as I suspected will ultimately be the case.   Its not really a major pattern change and the run ends up right back where we started.  

 

Ensembles look more or less the same. 

[Trainwreck]

Girls girls.

[Phil]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z ECMWF shows 4-5 inches of rain across the region next week.   

 

That is simply incredible for being almost May and given how much rain we have seen over the last 3 months.  

 

Send some of it this way, you've had enough already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1993 was my favorite summer. 2011 was my 2nd favorite

[stuffradio]

2015 was a nice summer.

[Jesse]

1993 was my favorite summer. 2011 was my 2nd favorite

A 1983 or 1993 repeat would be so fun.

[Front Ranger]

Yep, we've only received about half of what the airport has had so far this month. The airport is a little rainier than this location on average, but not by that much, it's usually more like 10~20% more. Especially on historically rainy Aprils like 2013, where this area actually received more rain than the airport. The patterns this year have really exaggerated the rain shadow in this area.

 

Can see how dominant the S/SW flow has been on this map, though it doesn't go into Canada, pretty easy to extrapolate to your area.

 

[TT-SEA]

1993 was my favorite summer. 2011 was my 2nd favorite

 

You are far in the minority of course.  

[TT-SEA]

Uh, I'd take 65 degrees & drizzle over 95 degrees & swampy anytime. Count your blessings, dude.

 

Our highs are already reaching the 80s frequently. Gonna be an absolute blast furnace..I usually leave town every August to avoid the worst of it, but I might leave by mid-July this year.

 

Yeah... lets go from one extreme to another.    I don't want it to be a sauna.  

 

65 and drizzle is not summer.   We have 50s and drizzle all year long.   We need some variety.   

 

Luckily 65 and drizzle is not the norm for summer around here.

 

I will take 70s and 80s and sunshine over either of those options and its not even close.

[Jesse]

You are far in the minority of course.

It's very, Very, VERY important that he realizes this. It could make all the difference!

[TT-SEA]

It's very, Very, VERY important that he realizes this. It could make all the difference!

 

Andrew is our resident contrarian and loves shock value.   We have seen that many times.  

[Jesse]

Andrew is our resident contrarian and loves shock value. We have seen that many times.

His love of cool summers has always struck me as pretty sincere. As is mine.

[TT-SEA]

His love of cool summers has always struck me as pretty sincere. As is mine.

You never know with Andrew. McVeigh and Putin are heroes.

 

I don't think a rain all summer is a favorite of many given our weather the rest of the year. Everyone can enjoy 8 weeks off from the rain. Cool versus hot is another discussion.

[Jesse]

You never know with Andrew. McVeigh and Putin are heroes.

True. It's a shame he's destroyed his credibility here in other ways.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

His love of cool summers has always struck me as pretty sincere. As is mine.

It is sincere.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

True. It's a shame he's destroyed his credibility here in other ways.

Misunderstood genius