April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Misunderstood genius

Different and extreme for the sake of being different and extreme.

[Jesse]

Misunderstood genius

You or Adolf Hitler?

[Jesse]

Different and extreme for the sake of being different and extreme.

I don't think it's fair to apply this to every aspect of his personality though. I know Andrew loves cooler than average weather, hiking and the Oregon Ducks legitimately.

[Jesse]

It looks like we will be going into a very brief period of NW flow this afternoon. Wonders never cease!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You or Adolf Hitler?

Today is also my grandmother s bday. She is 93 today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Front Ranger]

Another gorgeous spring day in Seattle. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Another gorgeous spring day in Seattle. 

 

Screenshot_2.png

 

I was actually there yesterday around lunch time...  

 

[Front Ranger]

Don't live in the past.

[TT-SEA]

Endless rain on the 12Z ECMWF starting on Sunday for the rest of the run... impressive totals considering its almost May.   

 

Of course the usual rain shadow spots will fare better.  

 

[Front Ranger]

Endless rain on the 12Z ECMWF starting on Sunday for the rest of the run... impressive totals considering its almost May.   

 

Of course the usual rain shadow spots will fare better.  

 

 

Looks like more westerly flow compared to the dominant S/SW flow of the past couple months. Maybe. If that happens, then there will be a more pronounced rain shadow for many places inland.

[ShawniganLake]

With a developing Niño there is probably a good chance October November are wet too. Hopefully summer behaves itself.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like more westerly flow compared to the dominant S/SW flow of the past couple months. Maybe. If that happens, then there will be a more pronounced rain shadow for many places inland.

 

Still amazing that at the end of the wettest Feb-Apr period ever... we are treated to a solid week of rain.  

 

I cannot find a year where there was not at least a 4-5 day period of dry weather out here in the foothills by the end of April.   Not one.   Until 2017.

[epiceast]

Tim,

 

We should a strong camping season with no Red Flag warnings based on all this rain. Look forward to it! 

[TT-SEA]

Tim,

 

We should a strong camping season with no Red Flag warnings based on all this rain. Look forward to it! 

 

Whoopity do!   

 

And it could still end up that way anyways.  

[epiceast]

Whoopity do!   

 

And it could still end up that way anyways.  

Just trying to cheer you up bud! I haven't been enjoying this spring much either, only got a couple days of good ski touring with nice corn snow and sun. Seems like our allowance has been one nice day a week since mid March, and it doesn't always align with my schedule and my friends schedules. I'm still hopeful that the rest of April and May is nice cool & clear nights and moderately warm sunny days!

[TT-SEA]

Just trying to cheer you up bud! I haven't been enjoying this spring much either, only got a couple days of good ski touring with nice corn snow and sun. Seems like our allowance has been one nice day a week since mid March, and it doesn't always align with my schedule and my friends schedules. I'm still hopeful that the rest of April and May is nice cool & clear nights and moderately warm sunny days!

 

The rest of April looks crazy wet.   I am holding out hope for May but even doubting that now.   

[Front Ranger]

The rest of April looks crazy wet.   I am holding out hope for May but even doubting that now.   

 

May will be better. Probably much better.

 

Phil's prediction of a relaxation of the pattern and warmer/drier second half of April looks to be in jeopardy.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty ugly here this afternoon. Close to 1/3" in heavy showers.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like more westerly flow compared to the dominant S/SW flow of the past couple months. Maybe. If that happens, then there will be a more pronounced rain shadow for many places inland.

 

I think several brief sunbreaks near the Space Needle cam could be a possibility on one or more afternoons.

[TT-SEA]

May will be better. Probably much better.

 

Phil's prediction of a relaxation of the pattern and warmer/drier second half of April looks to be in jeopardy.

 

Hoping so!  

[BLI snowman]

Still amazing that at the end of the wettest Feb-Apr period ever... we are treated to a solid week of rain.  

 

I cannot find a year where there was not at least a 4-5 day period of dry weather out here in the foothills by the end of April.   Not one.   Until 2017.

 

1961 isn't too bad of a match. SEA didn't hit 65 until May 15 that year. Nice summer followed.

[TT-SEA]

1961 isn't too bad of a match. SEA didn't hit 65 until May 15 that year. Nice summer followed.

 

That was a great summer.  Basically started on 5/15 and was awesome through 10/15.

 

Also had a very wet Feb-Apr period... in the top 5.

[stuffradio]

I've had .59" of rain so far today and 7.1" of rain this month so far.

[BLI snowman]

That was a great summer.  Basically started on 5/15 and was awesome through 10/15.

 

Also had a very wet Feb-Apr period... in the top 5.

 

2003 was also similar, wall to wall rain in March and April and considerably dry after mid May.

[Front Ranger]

I think several brief sunbreaks near the Space Needle cam could be a possibility on one or more afternoons.

 

They've been quite numerous! 

 

Seattle is simply sunnier/drier than most places west of the Cascades, especially during the spring. Still plenty of sun now.

 

[Phil]

May will be better. Probably much better.

 

Phil's prediction of a relaxation of the pattern and warmer/drier second half of April looks to be in jeopardy.

Starting in late April, continuing through early May, as a ridge temporarily builds in the GOA or just offshore.

 

Though, I've underestimated the NPAC jet all year, so maybe I'm doing it again.

[Phil]

If the 18z GFS is correct with the ridge amplifying that far offshore, then I'm going to bust with my warm-up call. I'm overdue for a bust anyway.

 

Seems the modeling is also backing away from the stronger WWB pattern for May, as was depicted earlier. Verbatim, this is such a crucial period that a moderate/strong Niño might be avoided, should the WWB regime fail to verify.

[Jesse]

2003 was also similar, wall to wall rain in March and April and considerably dry after mid May.

A hot summer and record warm October would be a nice change of pace.

[ShawniganLake]

2003 was also similar, wall to wall rain in March and April and considerably dry after mid May.

We can only hope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A hot summer and record warm October would be a nice change of pace.

2003 was not a hot summer.

[Phil]

Pattern wise, we're definitely not following 2002/03 this year.

[Front Ranger]

2003 was not a hot summer.

 

It was pretty warm. Warmer regionally than 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005.

 

[Jesse]

2003 was not a hot summer.

 

It was one of Portland's warmest ever, followed by a very warm and dry September/October.

[Jesse]

Pattern wise, we're definitely not following 2002/03 this year.

 

For sure. It's fun to wishcast though.

[seattleweatherguy]

Pattern wise, we're definitely not following 2002/03 this year.

Phil do you buy a warmer to hot compared to normal summer some are projecting?

[Jesse]

Phil do you buy a warmer to hot compared to normal summer some are projecting?

 

There are a handful of people here that will always "predict" a warm summer. Kind of like Jim with a cold winter. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[Front Ranger]

There are a handful of people here that will always "predict" a warm summer. Kind of like Jim with a cold winter. I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

I think the biggest factor against a cool summer like 2012, 2011, 2010, or 2008 is that the atmosphere remains in a more similar state to the past few years, as opposed to the -ENSO/-PDO dominated 2006-2014 period.

 

The cooler weather this winter/early spring was certainly more similar to those years, but the fact that ENSO has warmed quite a bit the past couple months and the PDO is rising again is not promising for a cool summer.

[TT-SEA]

I think the biggest factor against a cool summer like 2012, 2011, 2010, or 2008 is that the atmosphere remains in a more similar state to the past few years, as opposed to the -ENSO/-PDO dominated 2006-2014 period.

 

The cooler weather this winter/early spring was certainly more similar to those years, but the fact that ENSO has warmed quite a bit the past couple months and the PDO is rising again is not promising for a cool summer.

 

And also after spending so much time going over local daily history... years with ridiculously persistent rain all the way through April usually flip to something warm and dry for the balance of the summer and into fall.  

 

I don't count 1993 in that mix because February was record setting dry and that lasted well into March.   Only April was really bad that spring.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Still amazing that at the end of the wettest Feb-Apr period ever... we are treated to a solid week of rain.  

 

I cannot find a year where there was not at least a 4-5 day period of dry weather out here in the foothills by the end of April.   Not one.   Until 2017.

It's climate change. Blocking patterns or extended troughs and ridges are becoming the norm.