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Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Snowshoe
Snowshoe

Posted about the models on TTB 2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAV

Geos
Geos

Hi-res ARW is nice looking!         NMM  

Scott26
Scott26

I'm so glad this system will pass and we will move on lol. It's been impossible to track and keep up with since day 1. Right when there was some consistency with the models they changed at the last se

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Posted

The composite simulated radar is impressive. Just starting to really strengthen at 36 too.

 

Hi-res NAM:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_6.png

These type of tracks bring some of the most memorable snow storms in our region.  To bad we dont have temps in the upper 20's and higher snow ratios.

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Snowshoe Apprentice

Snowshoe

Posted
Posted

Oh so close.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI

751 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

 

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 747 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

 

LEADING BAND OF PCPN STILL LIFTG NWD ACRS THE FCST AREA. NWD

PROGRESS IS LIKELY TO SLOW...BUT SHOULD GET SNOW PRETTY MUCH ACRS

ALL BUT MAYBE NW VILAS COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT. ROADS REPORTEDLY

STARTING TO GET SLICK...SO WL JUST START THE ADVISORY NOW.

 

WARMER AIR JUST ABV THE SFC MAKING NWD PROGRESS INTO E-C WI FM THE

S. SO SNOW SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO MAINLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF E-C WI

BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER LINE TO WORK ABOUT AS FAR N AS

A PCZ-CLI-OCQ-SUE LINE BY LATE EVENING...THEN PRETTY MUCH HOLD IN

PLACE THE REST OF THE NGT. BUT THE BAND OF PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY

WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...AND THAT WL HOLD AMNTS IN CHECK. ALIGNMENT OF

ADVISORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...MAINLY NEED TO WATCH AREAS JUST TO

THE SE TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT ON THE SRN EDGE.

 

ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN WL SURGE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA FM THE S

STARTING ARND 4 OR 5 AM. THAT WL BE ASSOC WITH STG SHRTWV NOW

ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEVELOPING UPR LOW...AND WL SET UP STG UPR

SHEAR ZONE ACRS THE FCST AREA. SNOWS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WL PICK

UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE PCPN ARRIVES...AND SNOW COULD

BE FALLING QUITE HEAVILY IN A BAND FM AUW-IMT FOR THE MORNING

COMMUTE. WERE IT NOT FOR THE WARM BOUNDARY AND WET NATURE OF THE

SNOW THAT WL KEEP SNOW RATIOS DOWN...THIS MIGHT WARRANT AN UPGRADE

TO A WARNING.

 

CONCERN EVEN EXISTS FOR AREAS TO THE SE OF THE ADVISORY FOR THE

MORNING COMMUTE. SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SIG COOLING

OF LOW-LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES

THROUGH. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS COOL TO THE POINT WHERE THEY WOULD

SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THIS WOULD

BE OCCURRING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT...WHERE PCPN COULD BE

CONVECTIVE. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A BAND FROM

WAUTOMA TO ATW-GRB TO SUE...AS AREAS TO THE SE MAY JUST HAVE TOO

MUCH WARMTH TO OVERCOME. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH

ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHG IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT...BUT WL TRY AND

HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN UPCOMING SPS AND UPDATED HWO.

 

EVEN IF A TEMPORARY CHG TO SNOW OCCURS...PCPN ACRS THE SERN PART OF THE

FCST AREA WOULD LIKELY FLOP BACK OVER TO DZ AS MID-LVL DRY SLOT

DRIVES NE INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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The Snowman Collaborator

The Snowman

Posted
Posted

My implication was more-so based off of the hi-res guidance! especially as more moisture begins to enter the storm and OBS indicate the southern energy is a bit stronger than previously progged. In the end, it's just a matter of waiting & watching.

Was supposed to be a comma, not an exclamation point. Those tablets, I tell you...

 

Didn't mean to quote this post, can't get rid of it...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_asnow_us_18.png

 

0 here while 30 miles east gets 6+

 

That would suck.

Beautiful solution.

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

Man, things were looking bright for us here in Southeast Minnesota for a sec there, but the northerly band looks to stay primarily in NC Wisconsin now. Snow would be a nice relief, all we've had today was 33 and rain. Literally. It's horrible. Hope somehow things pan out for us. I'd love to get a solid 3-5", but at this point that seems like wishcasting.

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Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

LOT AFD:

 

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER  
STORM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE  
DAY. THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS TRICKLING IN AND APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY  
CAVED IN AND JOINED THE CAMP OF WHAT THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL  
MODELS HAD SHOWN ON WITH THE 12Z RUNS. LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN  
CONSISTENCY AND HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS  
HAS MADE THIS A CHALLENGING SYSTEM TO FORECAST FOR...HOWEVER THE  
12Z GLOBAL MODELS CAME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND NOW THE 00Z  
WRF-NAM SEEMS TO HAVE JOINED THAT CAMP WHICH COULD POSE A  
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT TO A POTENTIALLY LARGE PORTION OF  
OUR CWA WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED IN THE MODELS WITH  
500MB...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALL  
LEAVE ME VERY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY HEAVY  
AND WET SNOW AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE NEGATIVE MID-  
LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6C/KM FROM  
600-300MB POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN  
THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERMAL PROFILES IN THE MODELS ARE MARGINAL  
FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTREMELY  
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SHOWN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD ANTICIPATE  
STRONG ASCENT TO OVERWHELM IN MARGINAL WARMTH DOWN LOW AND LIKELY  
ALLOW FOR HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE DEFO BAND.  
 
NOT UNCOMMON FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEMS TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER  
WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST...WHICH COULD PUSH THE HEAVY SNOW BAND  
FARTHER WEST IN OUR CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX EAST. THE STRONG  
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A RATHER  
NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION...MAKING THE PLACEMENT OF  
ANY HEAVY SNOW BAND VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted

I see both NAM's are closing in on something like the GFS. 

 

This could be somewhat like this past storm. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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