Coming Economic/Markets Crash

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's started in Canada: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-16/canadian-home-prices-post-first-drop-in-two-years-on-rate-hikes

Someone I know in real estate claimed Bend's median home price dropped from 773K to 770K. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wow, Newsom's got a new inflation relief package. But isn't one of the reasons for the inflation that the government is spending too much money?

[Andie]

On 5/12/2022 at 9:47 AM, Iceresistance said:

The DOW is sinking again . . . 

 

 

I'm also worried about this: The threat for insurrection is increasing again . . . 

Seems every time this country goes through a recession, global tension, political extremes, we see an uptick in hate crimes and shootings.  
Reminds me of the experiments we did in Psych class in college with overcrowding of animals. They’d get violent every time.  Add another stressor, it just got worse.  

[Front Ranger]

I don't think the housing bubble is "ready to pop" quite yet (need to build a lot more inventory first, and that's coming), but this sums up the overall state of things pretty well: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/18/this-housing-bubble-is-cooked-mortgage-applications-plunge-amid-holy-moly-mortgage-rates-croaking-stocks-and-ridiculous-home-prices/

[Andie]

I read an article today on housing prices dropping some and demand easing.  
 

Also, new trend is people living out of their RV.  Now that’s a real reversal.  

[Front Ranger]

If this doesn't scream imminent recession, I'm not sure what does: https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/18/investing/target-earnings-inflation/

[Deweydog]

50 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If this doesn't scream imminent recession, I'm not sure what does: https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/18/investing/target-earnings-inflation/

Could actually be a good sign as consumer demand is a basic tenant of inflation.

Things aren’t pretty, but it could be a sign that the self-inflicted wounds of necessity may not have to be as protracted as first thought. 

[Andie]

The stock market is correcting, prices climbing, product availability sinking, fuel up, crime up, rent up, streets more dangerous, loan rates up, bankruptcies up. People opting to live in their RVs up recently.  Quarterly earnings down, all indices down, stock market down, 401’s down.

  
This is called a Recession.  (And a hum-dinger)
Just heard the Petroleum Industry is reprograming pumps to handle $10/ gal.  
 

“Buddy can ya spare a dime/gallon of gas”
 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Yup, we're in the recession now. There's no "it's coming". It's here.

[Front Ranger]

10 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Could actually be a good sign as consumer demand is a basic tenant of inflation.

Things aren’t pretty, but it could be a sign that the self-inflicted wounds of necessity may not have to be as protracted as first thought. 

Yeah, demand destruction already appears to be happening in retail, but inflation in energy/commodities will probably be more difficult to reign in.

A mixed bag, but the stagflation thesis still seems solid for at least a year or two to me - unless we have a major economic crash leading to serious short term deflation.

[Andie]

I’m having flashbacks of Jimmy Carter. 
Did that once.   Enough was enough.  
Believe me, it was rough.  

[IMoveALot_Weather]

34 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’m having flashbacks of Jimmy Carter. 
Did that once.   Enough was enough.  
Believe me, it was rough.  

I was thinking this morning about how the Biden presidency will probably be looked upon similar to the Carter presidency in history books.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I was thinking this morning about how the Biden presidency will probably be looked upon similar to the Carter presidency in history books.

This administration has been far worse than I imagined was possible. 

[Deweydog]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, demand destruction already appears to be happening in retail, but inflation in energy/commodities will probably be more difficult to reign in.

A mixed bag, but the stagflation thesis still seems solid for at least a year or two to me - unless we have a major economic crash leading to serious short term deflation.

Stagflation is a given at this point. There doesn’t appear to be any kind of conduit to avoid it. There are still several conduits for avoiding a significant prolonged recession, though, even if they have tightened in recent weeks.

Regardless, I think we ultimately come out of this strong assuming a doomsday WW3 scenario continues to stay on the back burner. A catharsis of sorts was long overdue, and it became evident over the last 4-5 years that it was going to take a sledgehammer to the temple to get the Fed to start taking the bitter medicine. The hammer officially dropped, although the delayed pain response didn’t help.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This administration has been far worse than I imagined was possible. 

So you're saying the Republicans have been doing an EXCELLENT job!

 

Not that there was much in the way of expectations from this administration, but the level of partisan sabotage being exercised by McConnell and friends is pretty f*cking pathetic.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I was thinking this morning about how the Biden presidency will probably be looked upon similar to the Carter presidency in history books.

Who will Trump be compared to?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So you're saying the Republicans have been doing an EXCELLENT job!

 

Not that there was much in the way of expectations from this administration, but the level of partisan sabotage being exercised by McConnell and friends is pretty f*cking pathetic.

It is interesting to compare Trump's first couple of years with Biden. Both had control of both chambers of congress and failed to get much of an agenda through. Both were stymied by moderates in their party. 

It remains to be seen if Biden/Dems will lose control of congress, but it seems very likely they will at least lose the House. 

I don't think the Republicans get a free pass for what they went along with in 2020, along with Trump. They handed out massive stimulus, paid people for not working, etc... That contributed to some of the inflation we are dealing with now. Biden came in and doubled down on it. If anything Republicans deserve a lot of credit, along with Manchin and Sinema, for blocking this administrations destructive policy agenda. If "Build Back Better" had passed, we would be in an even worse situation now. So I look at what Republicans have done as a positive, if we are talking about stopping some of these destructive policies. On the other hand they are probably more motivated by partisanship than principle. 

It's pretty clear that Biden is merely a figurehead put forth to represent the policymakers who are running the show. In a way he is the perfect example of the person who has sold their soul in order to achieve their ultimate goal. For Biden it was always about becoming President, there was no altruism involved, or even an end game from a policy perspective, it was purely selfishness, he never had any principles or real believes. Which is why he doesn't mind being used. He has definitely slowed down with age, but I do think to an extent he knows what he is being used for and has made his own peace with that. 

Of course you can come back with, but TRUMP. Sure, and two wrongs don't make a right. I don't believe Trump was good for the United States. I agreed with him more than Biden from a policy perspective, but he clearly puts himself over anyone else. And at some level no one is going to run and be elected President if they aren't a selfish prick at some level. I disagree with Obama on a lot of things, but he had a plan, he had objectives, he had a clear direction he wanted to move our country in. 

So I guess in short... I don't know that Republicans will save us either, maybe just destroy us a little more slowly. There probably is not much that can be done to get our country back on track, from my perspective we need someone who needs to aggressively take on the media, progressives, academia, and teachers unions, but not get as wrapped up in petty personal insults as Trump was. On the foreign policy side we need to continue hitting China hard, pivot back to the Western Hemisphere and build more strategic partnerships in the Americas. American manufacturing has done wonders for Mexico's economy, let's continue that, and expand our supply chains/partnerships in Latin America. 

[Andie]

Many have not returned to work yet.  The work force is lethargic. Maybe due to continued govt money going out.  
Announce the money will cease in 4-6 weeks and a lot of those folks will get back in the work force.  
My husband worked straight through it.  As the only Fleet and Fuel Manager for Ft Worth he didn’t have a choice.  
People need to get back to work.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Who will Trump be compared to?

He's a 1 of 1. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Andie said:

Many have not returned to work yet.  The work force is lethargic. Maybe due to continued govt money going out.  
Announce the money will cease in 4-6 weeks and a lot of those folks will get back in the work force.  
My husband worked straight through it.  As the only Fleet and Fuel Manager for Ft Worth he didn’t have a choice.  
People need to get back to work.  

I'm not familiar with the numbers in terms of workforce participation. I know here in Oregon unemployment is down to 3.7%. About where it was before the pandemic, and extremely low. Nationally we have 11 million open jobs right now. 

The next and looming recession will be interesting, in that will companies be able to absorb some of these open positions and delay having to make cuts to their active work force? Also YOU KNOW people are going to start expecting stimulus checks and government handouts as soon as things really start to tank. It's very hard to bail people out for one recession and then not with the next... 

[Andie]

The DOW finished down for the 8th week in a row.   

Last time it did that was……1932.

Buddy can you spare $5 for a gal of gas?

 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Stagflation is a given at this point. There doesn’t appear to be any kind of conduit to avoid it. There are still several conduits for avoiding a significant prolonged recession, though, even if they have tightened in recent weeks.

Regardless, I think we ultimately come out of this strong assuming a doomsday WW3 scenario continues to stay on the back burner. A catharsis of sorts was long overdue, and it became evident over the last 4-5 years that it was going to take a sledgehammer to the temple to get the Fed to start taking the bitter medicine. The hammer officially dropped, although the delayed pain response didn’t help.

Nothing is healthier for the economy in the long term than a legit recession after an unprecedented bull market built on cheap credit.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Who will Trump be compared to?

Jesus Christ.

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Nothing is healthier for the economy in the long term than a legit recession after an unprecedented bull market built on cheap credit.

If it’ll knock fuel down….

However, my husband is the fuel contractor for the City of Ft Worth and he said tonight there’s no end in sight as of now.  
It’ll stay high most likely while Uncle Bozo is in office.  

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Jesus Christ.

That's accurate compared to what we currently have.  Jus sayin.  

Bless you and all of yours.

[Chewbacca Defense]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is interesting to compare Trump's first couple of years with Biden. Both had control of both chambers of congress and failed to get much of an agenda through. Both were stymied by moderates in their party. 

It remains to be seen if Biden/Dems will lose control of congress, but it seems very likely they will at least lose the House. 

I don't think the Republicans get a free pass for what they went along with in 2020, along with Trump. They handed out massive stimulus, paid people for not working, etc... That contributed to some of the inflation we are dealing with now. Biden came in and doubled down on it. If anything Republicans deserve a lot of credit, along with Manchin and Sinema, for blocking this administrations destructive policy agenda. If "Build Back Better" had passed, we would be in an even worse situation now. So I look at what Republicans have done as a positive, if we are talking about stopping some of these destructive policies. On the other hand they are probably more motivated by partisanship than principle. 

It's pretty clear that Biden is merely a figurehead put forth to represent the policymakers who are running the show. In a way he is the perfect example of the person who has sold their soul in order to achieve their ultimate goal. For Biden it was always about becoming President, there was no altruism involved, or even an end game from a policy perspective, it was purely selfishness, he never had any principles or real believes. Which is why he doesn't mind being used. He has definitely slowed down with age, but I do think to an extent he knows what he is being used for and has made his own peace with that. 

Of course you can come back with, but TRUMP. Sure, and two wrongs don't make a right. I don't believe Trump was good for the United States. I agreed with him more than Biden from a policy perspective, but he clearly puts himself over anyone else. And at some level no one is going to run and be elected President if they aren't a selfish prick at some level. I disagree with Obama on a lot of things, but he had a plan, he had objectives, he had a clear direction he wanted to move our country in. 

So I guess in short... I don't know that Republicans will save us either, maybe just destroy us a little more slowly. There probably is not much that can be done to get our country back on track, from my perspective we need someone who needs to aggressively take on the media, progressives, academia, and teachers unions, but not get as wrapped up in petty personal insults as Trump was. On the foreign policy side we need to continue hitting China hard, pivot back to the Western Hemisphere and build more strategic partnerships in the Americas. American manufacturing has done wonders for Mexico's economy, let's continue that, and expand our supply chains/partnerships in Latin America. 

 

It is interesting that you completely omit any role the extremists right is having.  Sure...media (and I hope you include left & right media) academia and teachers unions all need to be called to task, but right now, the conservative movement is doing the most damage to the foundation/integrity of our democracy.

Ted Cruz just got a Supreme Court ruling in his favor regarding the limitations  on how much a candidate can loan his campaign, which makes it much easier for the wealthy to basically "buy" their way into office.  Trump said and one point if he could spend a billion dollars on his campaign, he would......well now he can.  You don't stand a chance at winning a national office unless you have an 8+ figure portfolio to tap into.  How is that good for America?

Ole 2 timing Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham and their bullsh*t blocking Obama from Supreme Court picks because of an upcoming election only to turn around and cram picks through when their party is in power with even LESS time before an election.....Utter and complete BULLSH*T  And the even bigger load of bullsh*t is that the democrats let them get away with it. 

DeSantis has been making very Putinist moves with his government in Florida, getting rid of people who do not fall in lockstep with him and replacing them with people who will.  He also has the legislature giving him more power...he got the Florida legislature to basically give him the power to draw the redistricting maps.  Thankfully a judge that HE appointed chose to do what is right and threw out the map.

As I have said many times before, I also have plenty of problems with the liberal side of the equation, especially the radical left.  I am sick of all the "woke-ness"  I've always held the view of "whatever floats your boat is fine as long as it doesn't sink mine.  I'm starting to take on water with all this political correctness.  And all BLM has become is a way for white people to ease their guilt.  I have no doubt that there is still racial inequality, and racial bias when it comes to law enforcement.  But it was also interesting to see that *most* of the people doing the *most* damage during the BLM riots were.....white.

 

I have to say, that if I were in the position to, I would probably be busting out of here.  I just don't see how we can turn this ship around.  I hope like hell I am wrong, but the corruption and power grabbing (which has always been there to some extent) is spiraling at an alarming rate.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

It is interesting that you completely omit any role the extremists right is having.  Sure...media (and I hope you include left & right media) academia and teachers unions all need to be called to task, but right now, the conservative movement is doing the most damage to the foundation/integrity of our democracy.

Ted Cruz just got a Supreme Court ruling in his favor regarding the limitations  on how much a candidate can loan his campaign, which makes it much easier for the wealthy to basically "buy" their way into office.  Trump said and one point if he could spend a billion dollars on his campaign, he would......well now he can.  You don't stand a chance at winning a national office unless you have an 8+ figure portfolio to tap into.  How is that good for America?

Ole 2 timing Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham and their bullsh*t blocking Obama from Supreme Court picks because of an upcoming election only to turn around and cram picks through when their party is in power with even LESS time before an election.....Utter and complete BULLSH*T  And the even bigger load of bullsh*t is that the democrats let them get away with it. 

DeSantis has been making very Putinist moves with his government in Florida, getting rid of people who do not fall in lockstep with him and replacing them with people who will.  He also has the legislature giving him more power...he got the Florida legislature to basically give him the power to draw the redistricting maps.  Thankfully a judge that HE appointed chose to do what is right and threw out the map.

As I have said many times before, I also have plenty of problems with the liberal side of the equation, especially the radical left.  I am sick of all the "woke-ness"  I've always held the view of "whatever floats your boat is fine as long as it doesn't sink mine.  I'm starting to take on water with all this political correctness.  And all BLM has become is a way for white people to ease their guilt.  I have no doubt that there is still racial inequality, and racial bias when it comes to law enforcement.  But it was also interesting to see that *most* of the people doing the *most* damage during the BLM riots were.....white.

 

I have to say, that if I were in the position to, I would probably be busting out of here.  I just don't see how we can turn this ship around.  I hope like hell I am wrong, but the corruption and power grabbing (which has always been there to some extent) is spiraling at an alarming rate.

 

 

 

At the end of the day maybe we both see the sinking ship and point our finger in the opposite direction about whose fault it is, and maybe we are both right to an extent. And perhaps we are both wrong thinking our folks are any better than the other. Maybe there is no moral high ground at this point.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At the end of the day maybe we both see the sinking ship and point our finger in the opposite direction about whose fault it is, and maybe we are both right to an extent. And perhaps we are both wrong thinking our folks are any better than the other. Maybe there is no moral high ground at this point.

As John Adams once said, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other."

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 5/12/2022 at 7:38 AM, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Disinformation board!

Ministry of Truth.

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 hours ago, Andie said:

Many have not returned to work yet.  The work force is lethargic. Maybe due to continued govt money going out.  
Announce the money will cease in 4-6 weeks and a lot of those folks will get back in the work force.  
My husband worked straight through it.  As the only Fleet and Fuel Manager for Ft Worth he didn’t have a choice.  
People need to get back to work.  

 

During our travels in Montana, last week, we stayed with my wife's cousin and his wife.  She is the HR Director for a very high end resort in Montana ($3,000/guest/day kind of place).  She said their guest list includes a "who's who among current movie stars and celebrities."  She could not say who specifically due to NDAs but she said a lot of actors filming in the region inevitably end up spending time there.  The resort offer about every outdoor experience you can have in Montana: riding, fishing, shooting, mountain biking...the works, and of course staff accordingly.

They pay extremely well to get the best of the best, ensure that their people are happy and honor the NDA's they have in place.  She said it is an absolute dream job that she loves.  All employees are encouraged to use the facilities during their days off so that they can relate with guests about the experiences there at the ranch.  They get free lodging, meals, etc.  The relative (HR director) even got sent to another resort located in the Caribbean owned by the same company for 6 weeks, all expenses paid.  It was intended to share/exchange ideas about the running of these resorts.

 

She targets college aged kids/recent college graduates.  Normally, she gets hundreds of applicants beating down their door for each position.  It includes people who "rode a horse once when they were 5" want to be wranglers and people who "shot a gun once with their pappy when they were 9" wanting to be gunsmiths.

This year....crickets....they are struggling to get enough applicants to fill the open positions, and she has been on a nationwide recruiting campaign, going to job fairs at universities all over the countries.  She said she has talked to recruiters for "the competition" and they are having the same problem.

 

That really highlights the issue...I could understand McDonald's or Home Depot struggling to find employees (to an extent), but my discussion last week was a real eye opener.  Hell, the only reason I didn't apply for a job there myself (in their finance department) was because it was my son's senior year an I was still in school myself.  I did not have the bandwidth to go through a relocation, and I did not want to be moving during my son's senior year.

 

Something that occurred to me as I am typing this:  Are there really *that* many people working in the gig economy doing Lyft, Uber, Door Dash, etc?  Up here in Bellingham, we recently started getting pretty much all of our deliveries directly from Amazon.  Driving towards Seattle in the morning, I often pass a massive parade of Amazon delivery vans headed towards Bellingham, Burlington and Mt. Vernon.  Is that where all of the workers have disappeared to?

 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

During our travels in Montana, last week, we stayed with my wife's cousin and his wife.  She is the HR Director for a very high end resort in Montana ($3,000/guest/day kind of place).  She said their guest list includes a "who's who among current movie stars and celebrities."  She could not say who specifically due to NDAs but she said a lot of actors filming in the region inevitably end up spending time there.  The resort offer about every outdoor experience you can have in Montana: riding, fishing, shooting, mountain biking...the works, and of course staff accordingly.

They pay extremely well to get the best of the best, ensure that their people are happy and honor the NDA's they have in place.  She said it is an absolute dream job that she loves.  All employees are encouraged to use the facilities during their days off so that they can relate with guests about the experiences there at the ranch.  They get free lodging, meals, etc.  The relative (HR director) even got sent to another resort located in the Caribbean owned by the same company for 6 weeks, all expenses paid.  It was intended to share/exchange ideas about the running of these resorts.

 

She targets college aged kids/recent college graduates.  Normally, she gets hundreds of applicants beating down their door for each position.  It includes people who "rode a horse once when they were 5" want to be wranglers and people who "shot a gun once with their pappy when they were 9" wanting to be gunsmiths.

This year....crickets....they are struggling to get enough applicants to fill the open positions, and she has been on a nationwide recruiting campaign, going to job fairs at universities all over the countries.  She said she has talked to recruiters for "the competition" and they are having the same problem.

 

That really highlights the issue...I could understand McDonald's or Home Depot struggling to find employees (to an extent), but my discussion last week was a real eye opener.  Hell, the only reason I didn't apply for a job there myself (in their finance department) was because it was my son's senior year an I was still in school myself.  I did not have the bandwidth to go through a relocation, and I did not want to be moving during my son's senior year.

 

Something that occurred to me as I am typing this:  Are there really *that* many people working in the gig economy doing Lyft, Uber, Door Dash, etc?  Up here in Bellingham, we recently started getting pretty much all of our deliveries directly from Amazon.  Driving towards Seattle in the morning, I often pass a massive parade of Amazon delivery vans headed towards Bellingham, Burlington and Mt. Vernon.  Is that where all of the workers have disappeared to?

 

I think you're on to something. Apparently more than a third of all workers are part of the gig economy now - up tremendously from just a few years ago: https://fortunly.com/statistics/gig-economy-statistics/#:~:text=More than one-third of,their primary or secondary jobs.&text=This number comprises around 59,actually an alternative work arrangement.

[Iceresistance]

The DOW will not stop falling, it’s going to be below 31,000 either today or tomorrow if the trends continue. 

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

During our travels in Montana, last week, we stayed with my wife's cousin and his wife.  She is the HR Director for a very high end resort in Montana ($3,000/guest/day kind of place).  She said their guest list includes a "who's who among current movie stars and celebrities."  She could not say who specifically due to NDAs but she said a lot of actors filming in the region inevitably end up spending time there.  The resort offer about every outdoor experience you can have in Montana: riding, fishing, shooting, mountain biking...the works, and of course staff accordingly.

They pay extremely well to get the best of the best, ensure that their people are happy and honor the NDA's they have in place.  She said it is an absolute dream job that she loves.  All employees are encouraged to use the facilities during their days off so that they can relate with guests about the experiences there at the ranch.  They get free lodging, meals, etc.  The relative (HR director) even got sent to another resort located in the Caribbean owned by the same company for 6 weeks, all expenses paid.  It was intended to share/exchange ideas about the running of these resorts.

 

She targets college aged kids/recent college graduates.  Normally, she gets hundreds of applicants beating down their door for each position.  It includes people who "rode a horse once when they were 5" want to be wranglers and people who "shot a gun once with their pappy when they were 9" wanting to be gunsmiths.

This year....crickets....they are struggling to get enough applicants to fill the open positions, and she has been on a nationwide recruiting campaign, going to job fairs at universities all over the countries.  She said she has talked to recruiters for "the competition" and they are having the same problem.

 

That really highlights the issue...I could understand McDonald's or Home Depot struggling to find employees (to an extent), but my discussion last week was a real eye opener.  Hell, the only reason I didn't apply for a job there myself (in their finance department) was because it was my son's senior year an I was still in school myself.  I did not have the bandwidth to go through a relocation, and I did not want to be moving during my son's senior year.

 

Something that occurred to me as I am typing this:  Are there really *that* many people working in the gig economy doing Lyft, Uber, Door Dash, etc?  Up here in Bellingham, we recently started getting pretty much all of our deliveries directly from Amazon.  Driving towards Seattle in the morning, I often pass a massive parade of Amazon delivery vans headed towards Bellingham, Burlington and Mt. Vernon.  Is that where all of the workers have disappeared to?

 

Unfortunately entry level wages in the hospitality industry have always been on the very low side, usually just a cut above minimum wage even for front office positions. So for all intents and purposes a high end resort in Montana might as well be Home Depot or McDonalds if you are a recent college graduate. Cannot say that I am shocked that she is struggling to find people, it's just a difficult field for owners to offer competitive wages for what are traditionally high-turnover positions anyways. I work for Hilton and would say that 30-40% of our properties are still dealing with significant staffing issues, though that number has certainly come down some in the last year.

[Andie]

I find it so difficult to imagine but I know all of you are right regarding staffing shortages.  
My husband retires in 1 1/2 yrs. I am pretty sure this problem will still be lingering about. 
They will likely beg him to stay.  No one can do his job in or out of the City.  
He’ll likely form a consulting firm and make a bundle as they’ll be so wanting of his rare experience.  
Even the 5 people he’s been training for the last yr to replace him won’t  touch his qualifications in another yr half.  The nation is bereft of valuable experience or initiative to learn.  
A tad bit terrifyingly, eh?

[Phil]

22 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So you're saying the Republicans have been doing an EXCELLENT job!

 

Not that there was much in the way of expectations from this administration, but the level of partisan sabotage being exercised by McConnell and friends is pretty f*cking pathetic.

The Biden Administration’s domestic energy policy is unfathomably moronic. I was saying before he got elected that his energy proposals would render energy prices (and thus our entire economy) vulnerable to geological instability. Everything from manufacturing, to household income, to investment in alternative technologies, is affected by energy prices in the present.

Anyone stupid/incompetent enough to campaign on domestic fracking/drilling bans and phasing out nuclear has no business holding any position of power.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Unfortunately entry level wages in the hospitality industry have always been on the very low side, usually just a cut above minimum wage even for front office positions. So for all intents and purposes a high end resort in Montana might as well be Home Depot or McDonalds if you are a recent college graduate. Cannot say that I am shocked that she is struggling to find people, it's just a difficult field for owners to offer competitive wages for what are traditionally high-turnover positions anyways. I work for Hilton and would say that 30-40% of our properties are still dealing with significant staffing issues, though that number has certainly come down some in the last year.

 

This is far from your average Hilton, or even "high end" Hilton.  Salaries transcend "Montana wages" as they are competing against other boutique resorts.  And Montana isn't that cheap any more.  I think my son was making $17/hr plus tips to sling pizza dough, and it went up quite a lot when he became a kitchen manager...both part time jobs.

As for the resort, they have free room and board on the property, and even folks who choose to live off property get $300/month stipend towards rent.  Those offsite folks also get a free tank of gas every week.  And then there are tips.  She said that one guest gave her $60,000 to distribute as tips, and I think there are about 75 employees.  That's about $800 per person from one guest.  They can accommodate up to 125 guests.  Another regular guest shows up with *CASES* of $1,000 tequila and hands them out to employees.  My relative said that working there has truly warped her sense of value for things.

They have no problem sending guests who are rude to employees packing, so....your employer has your back, you get to hunt, fish, mountain bike, ride/care for horses (whatever your experience/passion is) every day, *AND* get paid to do it.  Add in the tips, free room and board, and the opportunity to "rub elbows" with the biggest names in sports and Hollywood.... 

Not sure how that compares to a Hilton?

 

The only real downside is you have to abide by some pretty strict NDAs to protect the privacy of the guests.  She caught one employee taking a picture of a very famous guest, pulled him into her office, fired him on the spot and drove him straight to the airport as he was there on a J1 Visa.

I get that in general, the hospitality industry in struggling, but this place is typically the exception.  They have a core of year-round staff, but flex up significantly for the summer season.  She typically gets 150+ applications per position for those summer positions.  Not this summer, and that is truly perplexing....

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

49 minutes ago, Andie said:

I find it so difficult to imagine but I know all of you are right regarding staffing shortages.  
My husband retires in 1 1/2 yrs. I am pretty sure this problem will still be lingering about. 
They will likely beg him to stay.  No one can do his job in or out of the City.  
He’ll likely form a consulting firm and make a bundle as they’ll be so wanting of his rare experience.  
Even the 5 people he’s been training for the last yr to replace him won’t  touch his qualifications in another yr half.  The nation is bereft of valuable experience or initiative to learn.  
A tad bit terrifyingly, eh?

Good plan on the consulting gig.  That is actually pretty much the SOP in Japan.  Folks quit/retire/get laid off about 5-7 years before retirement then get hired right back as consultants making bank. 

Of course for your husband he will have a larger tax burden since he will be self employed, but I believe the rates he would be able to charge would more than cover that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

This is far from your average Hilton, or even "high end" Hilton.  Salaries transcend "Montana wages" as they are competing against other boutique resorts.  And Montana isn't that cheap any more.  I think my son was making $17/hr plus tips to sling pizza dough, and it went up quite a lot when he became a kitchen manager...both part time jobs.

As for the resort, they have free room and board on the property, and even folks who choose to live off property get $300/month stipend towards rent.  Those offsite folks also get a free tank of gas every week.  And then there are tips.  She said that one guest gave her $60,000 to distribute as tips, and I think there are about 75 employees.  That's about $800 per person from one guest.  They can accommodate up to 125 guests.  Another regular guest shows up with *CASES* of $1,000 tequila and hands them out to employees.  My relative said that working there has truly warped her sense of value for things.

They have no problem sending guests who are rude to employees packing, so....your employer has your back, you get to hunt, fish, mountain bike, ride/care for horses (whatever your experience/passion is) every day, *AND* get paid to do it.  Add in the tips, free room and board, and the opportunity to "rub elbows" with the biggest names in sports and Hollywood.... 

Not sure how that compares to a Hilton?

 

The only real downside is you have to abide by some pretty strict NDAs to protect the privacy of the guests.  She caught one employee taking a picture of a very famous guest, pulled him into her office, fired him on the spot and drove him straight to the airport as he was there on a J1 Visa.

I get that in general, the hospitality industry in struggling, but this place is typically the exception.  They have a core of year-round staff, but flex up significantly for the summer season.  She typically gets 150+ applications per position for those summer positions.  Not this summer, and that is truly perplexing....

 

Now I want to go work there. No, but seriously I wish I had done something like that when I was younger. 

[BLI snowman]

45 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

This is far from your average Hilton, or even "high end" Hilton.  Salaries transcend "Montana wages" as they are competing against other boutique resorts.  And Montana isn't that cheap any more.  I think my son was making $17/hr plus tips to sling pizza dough, and it went up quite a lot when he became a kitchen manager...both part time jobs.

As for the resort, they have free room and board on the property, and even folks who choose to live off property get $300/month stipend towards rent.  Those offsite folks also get a free tank of gas every week.  And then there are tips.  She said that one guest gave her $60,000 to distribute as tips, and I think there are about 75 employees.  That's about $800 per person from one guest.  They can accommodate up to 125 guests.  Another regular guest shows up with *CASES* of $1,000 tequila and hands them out to employees.  My relative said that working there has truly warped her sense of value for things.

They have no problem sending guests who are rude to employees packing, so....your employer has your back, you get to hunt, fish, mountain bike, ride/care for horses (whatever your experience/passion is) every day, *AND* get paid to do it.  Add in the tips, free room and board, and the opportunity to "rub elbows" with the biggest names in sports and Hollywood.... 

Not sure how that compares to a Hilton?

 

The only real downside is you have to abide by some pretty strict NDAs to protect the privacy of the guests.  She caught one employee taking a picture of a very famous guest, pulled him into her office, fired him on the spot and drove him straight to the airport as he was there on a J1 Visa.

I get that in general, the hospitality industry in struggling, but this place is typically the exception.  They have a core of year-round staff, but flex up significantly for the summer season.  She typically gets 150+ applications per position for those summer positions.  Not this summer, and that is truly perplexing....

 

It's not just keeping up with the wages that are a struggle, though I would still imagine that's a major part of it. Particularly in remote MT where home availability simply isn't going to be a realistic long-term option for many, which dramatically reduces the range of applicants.

It's also, increasingly since the pandemic, simply the lifestyle (and general lack of benefits, literal and otherwise) associated with working in the service industry that has led to it struggling to catch up. Across the board, not just in hospitality. Employers increasingly are having to resort to things like signing bonuses for entry-level positions to try to reel people in. The irregularities in work scheduling and then the cascading domino effect of stress that understaffing/supply chain issues puts on existing staff has led to many people simply opting out of the field altogether. And then the increased reliance on WFH options and the gig economy since Covid has certainly helped to solidify that. Whether it's a permanent change or not remains to be seen, but it will be interesting to see how the service industry's model conforms to the increasingly digitized and automated work force going forward.

Edited May 20, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now I want to go work there. No, but seriously I wish I had done something like that when I was younger. 

I'm not kidding when I say I regret not pursuing the finance position.  It was the right decision at the time, but man the timing sure sucked. 

This relative is always posting pictures of the amazing activities she gets to do, and she is a city girl.  She grew up near San Francisco and then moved to Portland for a while.  Now she rides horses, fly fishes, and does all kinds of outdoorsy things.

I just found out that she is going to be changing jobs, but its not without a lot of hesitation.  She is basically going to work for a competitor will allow her to work 100% remote.  She is a Rancher's wife, and her current job does not allow for her to support the ranch that much.  In her interview for the new job, she told them that she was a "Rancher's wife" and part of the reason for the career change and desire to work from home was so that she could spend more time helping out with ranch operations.  Calving, haying, and cattle drives are "all hands on deck" affairs, and she has not been able to help.  Her new employer said "no problem"

Her responsibilities at her current employer don't really allow her to work remotely.  She said it has been a tough decision, but something she needs to do to support the family business.

 

[Iceresistance]

The DOW somehow closed higher, guess they did not want a losing streak this long since 1923. 

[Andie]

6 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Good plan on the consulting gig.  That is actually pretty much the SOP in Japan.  Folks quit/retire/get laid off about 5-7 years before retirement then get hired right back as consultants making bank. 

Of course for your husband he will have a larger tax burden since he will be self employed, but I believe the rates he would be able to charge would more than cover that.

And our CPA is our lawyer so this’ll set up easily and he’s very good.  Randy deserves to make what he’s worth.  About darn time!

[Front Ranger]

Yikes. The pain is real now for those who lived in fantasyland the past 18+ months: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

[Iceresistance]

After a solid increase on Monday, they’ve almost slumped again yesterday. (Somehow ended nearly flat on the positive side.)

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

After a solid increase on Monday, they’ve almost slumped again yesterday. (Somehow ended nearly flat on the positive side.)

Nasdaq was down big, though. Anyone who kept their portfolio heavy in tech/growth stocks has been slaughtered in 2022. I know people down 40-50% just this year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Fun times 

[Andie]

Prices jumped 0.3% in the one-month period from March. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings dropped 0.1% in March, when accounting for the inflation spike. On an annual basis, real earnings dropped 2.6% in April," the report explained.

Economists recently told the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia they now think the GDP will grow 2.5% for all of 2022, but that's down from the 4.2% estimates from just months ago.

The report said, the Congressional Budget Office is warning consumers inflation will stay high, at least for the next year or longer.

Economists are warning that Biden's policies are likely to lead to a recession.

Wnd.com

BUCKLE UP!

[Andie]

The future is apparently going to have staffing and economic issues.  

USA birth rate has been below min sustainable levels for ~50 years. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Andie said:

The future is apparently going to have staffing and economic issues.  

USA birth rate has been below min sustainable levels for ~50 years. 

 

I did my part. 

[Deweydog]

Right on time…

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/strong-insider-buying-suggests-a-15-rally-in-the-s-p-500-from-here-11653494055