Coming Economic/Markets Crash

[Andie]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

They are spending all their time beating the dead horse known as January 6th.  The Democrats have become totally tone deaf to what is important to the American people.

Absolutely.   
Sadly the Left tends to form investigations into the wrong things.  
For example Border Agents have apprehended 50 people on the terror list crossing our “border”.  How many got away?   
Maybe they’ll head straight for DC.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 hours ago, Andie said:

Absolutely.   
Sadly the Left tends to form investigations into the wrong things.  
For example Border Agents have apprehended 50 people on the terror list crossing our “border”.  How many got away?   
Maybe they’ll head straight for DC.  

Those hearings are all just theater and a distraction to what's going on as we approach the midterms, but I do wish they would find someone other than Trump for 2024. No matter who it is though the left will make sure to attack them relentlessly. 

[Andie]

It should be DeSantis.   
And he’d give the country a real run for the job.  

[Deweydog]

DeSantis’ problem will be assuming a position of power within what has become such a tribalistic electorate. He’s a pretty dull statesman overall.

Have to wonder how Donnie will respond if it looks like things really start breaking bad for him. Does he take his narcissism to the next level and run as a third party/independent?

[Front Ranger]

On 6/18/2022 at 3:22 PM, Deweydog said:

DeSantis’ problem will be assuming a position of power within what has become such a tribalistic electorate. He’s a pretty dull statesman overall.

Have to wonder how Donnie will respond if it looks like things really start breaking bad for him. Does he take his narcissism to the next level and run as a third party/independent?

That would be amazing, but unfortunately do not see it happening.

[Front Ranger]

A popular narrative is that sub-prime lending was the cause of the 2007-08 housing crash.

In reality, it was more speculation from credit-worthy investors. Not all that different from where we're at today: https://betterdwelling.com/forget-subprime-canadian-real-estate-buyers-investors-crashed-the-us-market/

[RentonHill]

43 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

A popular narrative is that sub-prime lending was the cause of the 2007-08 housing crash.

In reality, it was more speculation from credit-worth investors. Not all that different from where we're at today: https://betterdwelling.com/forget-subprime-canadian-real-estate-buyers-investors-crashed-the-us-market/

It’s never that black and white but yes the speculation/investor combo plus rise of subprime popped the housing prices once rates rose. I think Wikipedia actually sums it up quite well (attached snip)

but you have to be careful to differentiate between the real estate downturn (normal part of any market cycle to some extent) and the ensuing global financial crisis, which was kickstarted by the housing downturn and the extremely overlevered banks who held all those mortgages (whether in a warehouse waiting to be offloaded - if we know we can package them up and sell them after we can hold 40x notional!! - or in the affiliated hedge funds that levered up the already attractive yield) that led to fund failures and eventual freezing of credit Mkts. Plus insurers down the line were the cherry on top. Today, Bank leverage is nowhere near 07 levels and the subprime market as it existed back then is essentially nonexistent today. Sure, housing prices are due for similar pullback just based on natural cycle and obviously rising rates, but it’s very different situation today, e.g., how many mtgs were variables back then - almost every Mtg is fixed rate now. No teasers, no surprises. 

[Andie]

On 6/18/2022 at 4:22 PM, Deweydog said:

DeSantis’ problem will be assuming a position of power within what has become such a tribalistic electorate. He’s a pretty dull statesman overall.

Have to wonder how Donnie will respond if it looks like things really start breaking bad for him. Does he take his narcissism to the next level and run as a third party/independent?

No drama is what we need.  I’ve always found good administrators are essential dull as dishwater. And man, does this country need a firm hand that just gets it done.  Florida loves him so he has something.  Also, international tensions need a firm grownup at the helm. 
 

Trump and DeSantis had a multi day visit about 6 months ago.  Little information came out of that.  They’re up to something but I hope it isn’t Trump running with DeSantis as VP.  
The nation is just sick of drama.  

[Front Ranger]

14 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s never that black and white but yes the speculation/investor combo plus rise of subprime popped the housing prices once rates rose. I think Wikipedia actually sums it up quite well (attached snip)

but you have to be careful to differentiate between the real estate downturn (normal part of any market cycle to some extent) and the ensuing global financial crisis, which was kickstarted by the housing downturn and the extremely overlevered banks who held all those mortgages (whether in a warehouse waiting to be offloaded - if we know we can package them up and sell them after we can hold 40x notional!! - or in the affiliated hedge funds that levered up the already attractive yield) that led to fund failures and eventual freezing of credit Mkts. Plus insurers down the line were the cherry on top. Today, Bank leverage is nowhere near 07 levels and the subprime market as it existed back then is essentially nonexistent today. Sure, housing prices are due for similar pullback just based on natural cycle and obviously rising rates, but it’s very different situation today, e.g., how many mtgs were variables back then - almost every Mtg is fixed rate now. No teasers, no surprises. 

Yeah, definitely complicated with many variables then. As it is today. 2004-07 run up in home prices did not have the record low borrowing rates that we've had the past few years.

The biggest thing in common is that era reached record unaffordability (income/housing cost ratios), and we have again in 2022 thanks to the unprecedented rise in interest rates.

[Deweydog]

5 hours ago, Andie said:

No drama is what we need.  I’ve always found good administrators are essential dull as dishwater. And man, does this country need a firm hand that just gets it done.  Florida loves him so he has something.  Also, international tensions need a firm grownup at the helm. 
 

Trump and DeSantis had a multi day visit about 6 months ago.  Little information came out of that.  They’re up to something but I hope it isn’t Trump running with DeSantis as VP.  
The nation is just sick of drama.  

Sure about that?

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Sure about that?

We need grownups with the ability to make considered decisions. 
No egos

No drama

No show dogs

No old men past their prime. 
For starters.  
I really want someone with the ability to listen and make considered decisions that truly benefit the people and if needs be can buck their own party.  Too much to ask?  
Probably.  
 

But we have this. An old man that has to be told in writing what to do or he’ll eff-up!

[Iceresistance]

13 hours ago, Andie said:

We need grownups with the ability to make considered decisions. 
No egos

No drama

No show dogs

No old men past their prime. 
For starters.  
I really want someone with the ability to listen and make considered decisions that truly benefit the people and if needs be can buck their own party.  Too much to ask?  
Probably.  
 

But we have this. An old man that has to be told in writing what to do or he’ll eff-up!

Speaking of politics, his disapproval rating is now at an all-time high at 56% mean national average

[Chewbacca Defense]

14 hours ago, Andie said:

We need grownups with the ability to make considered decisions. 
No egos

No drama

No show dogs

No old men past their prime. 
For starters.  
I really want someone with the ability to listen and make considered decisions that truly benefit the people and if needs be can buck their own party.  Too much to ask?  
Probably.  
 

But we have this. An old man that has to be told in writing what to do or he’ll eff-up!

I think this is probably a lot more common than you might think for formal events.  There have been plenty of instances of politicians for both parties (Mango Menace included) missing their cues or standing in the wrong spot.

 

Hell, I think back to presentations I have put together for high level executives....legitimately very smart people, and the presentations were very simple, much in the same spirit of this screenshot.

 

This is nothing more  than another Fox News Entertainment Network spooling up their sheeple

But I agree, we need a REAL leader.....no drama, no egos, etc......sadly, I don't see either party offering up a worthy candidate.

 

[Andie]

I think the thing that’s so surprising is not the do list but the degree of minutia.  It’s just so juvenile.  
 

I’ve had to do presentations before Execs with only bullet points on a 3x5 card.  This points out how much the White House staff is managing a Chief Exec.  It’s just over the top for a former VP, Senator, and attorney.  
 

[Front Ranger]

Good article: https://fortune.com/2022/06/20/housing-market-in-2022-looks-similar-to-the-2008-housing-bubble-housing-charts-home-prices/

[Front Ranger]

If a market correction were to occur, this is how it would begin. But what do I know, only been working in and studying real estate for over a decade.

[RentonHill]

14 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

If a market correction were to occur, this is how it would begin. But what do I know, only been working in and studying real estate for over a decade.

 I would say that the market is already correcting based on those charts. Do you know how big of a lag is there between the listing price monitors/your charts above and the official home price surveys/indexes? I assume the official ones have to wait for closing + some amount of time to actually show up in the local govt database. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

https://ussanews.com/2022/06/30/cnn-recessions-are-racist/

[Phil]

14 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

If a market correction were to occur, this is how it would begin. But what do I know, only been working in and studying real estate for over a decade.

Ooof. 

[Deweydog]

14 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

If a market correction were to occur, this is how it would begin. But what do I know, only been working in and studying real estate for over a decade.

What we’ve seen here locally is a huge uptick in price reductions. Most of it seems to be more in line with sellers/agents who were continuing to try to “push” the market. Rate reality has definitely hit home.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

 I would say that the market is already correcting based on those charts. Do you know how big of a lag is there between the listing price monitors/your charts above and the official home price surveys/indexes? I assume the official ones have to wait for closing + some amount of time to actually show up in the local govt database. 

Yeah, big lag with most official real estate data. Won't see an official drop in sales prices until 3-4 months after the fact it's happening live in markets, depending on source.

Basically:

1. Buyer demand has dropped to the point that inventory is rapidly building, meaning an increasing number of homes don't sell quickly and then drop their price.

2. Eventually most go under contract, but at a lower price than many recent comps.

3. It can then take 1-3 months for the sale to actually close.

4. 1-2 months after that, it's reflected in the official data.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What we’ve seen here locally is a huge uptick in price reductions. Most of it seems to be more in line with sellers/agents who were continuing to try to “push” the market. Rate reality has definitely hit home.

Yeah, pretty much. We've seen a lot of "wish pricing" here the past couple months based on the assumption that you can still sell your home for more than your neighbor did in Q1.

But also now seeing, especially at higher price points, some homes just sit with little interest and having to drop their price well below previous comps.

[RentonHill]

30yr Mortgage rates already down 80bps from their highs. "oops"

 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

30yr Mortgage rates already down 80bps from their highs. "oops"

 

Incredibly volatile period for interest rates.

There is also a lag between rates and buyer demand...the pullback we've seen the past couple month was mainly due to the rates from March to April. Unless we see rates fall to the 4.5%-4.75% range again, I doubt we'll see much improvement in buyer appetite.

[Front Ranger]

Boise was one of the hottest pandemic markets. Now their housing supply for sale is mooning. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months.

[RentonHill]

Housing already a significant detractor for current GDP tracking. Inventory was kind of a no-brainer after the huge stock-ups from Q3/4, but you're also seeing goods turn negative (also expected given the goods/services flip that happened post covid). That drop  & housing is probably happening faster than most (e.g. JPow) expected. Can we squeeze the pain into just a few quarters and start fresh in 2023?? 

[Andie]

I doubt it.  I think we have 2 to 3 yrs of bumpy road.  Not unlike the economy of 2008-12. 

[Front Ranger]

This is pretty f*cked up: https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/fed-report-finds-75-800-billion-paycheck-protection-program-didnt-reach

[Iceresistance]

Current economic signals are very confusing, some say we're going into recession, some say we're not.

[Deweydog]

9.1%, baby!

And yet the markets seem very unfazed. Something has shifted as the disparity between core inflation and the CPI widens…

[Andie]

9.1……..Do I hear 10 !?

Sadly, there’s still room at the top.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Andie said:

9.1……..Do I hear 10 !?

Sadly, there’s still room at the top.

The July number will almost invariably come in a bit lower as fuel prices have taken a bit of a dip.

[Andie]

It’s such a knee jerk economy right now. A bit of bad news and things shift. But inflationary times are full of the jitters.  
Im more of the plod alone economy type. Plan, execute, and reap the rewards.  Not very popular today.  

[Deweydog]

Down to $4.69/gal at Costco.

D**n near into 2008 throwback range.

[Minny_Weather]

Unfortunately, a recession might be what the country needs right now.

[Minny_Weather]

On 7/20/2022 at 2:57 PM, Deweydog said:

Down to $4.69/gal at Costco.

D**n near into 2008 throwback range.

There's one gas station on my way to work that's always the cheapest in the city. It was $5.19. $5.19!!!!!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Unfortunately, a recession might be what the country needs right now.

That's what Bill Maher said was needed to get rid of Trump. Now he makes fun of the woke left too, though.

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

There's one gas station on my way to work that's always the cheapest in the city. It was $5.19. $5.19!!!!!!

Down to $4.59 now. I almost feel like I’m committing theft when I fuel up. 

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

That's what Bill Maher said was needed to get rid of Trump. Now he makes fun of the woke left too, though.

I'm not even saying this from a let's go Brandon perspective, or any political perspective for that matter. Obviously a recession would have negative consequences, but with the ridiculous prices at the grocery store, investors buying up every affordable house south of the Mason-Dixon line, and labor shortages... There might be more of a silver lining than there was in 2008.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I'm not even saying this from a let's go Brandon perspective, or any political perspective for that matter. Obviously a recession would have negative consequences, but with the ridiculous prices at the grocery store, investors buying up every affordable house south of the Mason-Dixon line, and labor shortages... There might be more of a silver lining than there was in 2008.

From a macroeconomic perspective, most recessions have proven to be quite healthy. A painful molting process. Even 2008 was to extent, although it was born more of pure stupidity.

[Andie]

Can we trade in our Obama cars  now??

[Iceresistance]

Now that August is here, the July 2022 inflation data is coming out soon. 

[Iceresistance]

8.5% for July 2022, lower than expected. But it’s going to explode very soon because of Black Friday and Christmas Shopping, they are coming. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

39 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

8.5% for July 2022, lower than expected. But it’s going to explode very soon because of Black Friday and Christmas Shopping, they are coming. 

They have redefined recession. They have redefined racism. What's the left going to redefine next?

[Andie]

Poverty?

[Iceresistance]

21 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

They have redefined recession. They have redefined racism. What's the left going to redefine next?

They really do not want to lose the 2022 midterms and/or the 2024 presidential but it is inevitable.

We are now in the age of redefining everything, I'm predicting the next thing they will try to redefine is a woman.

EDIT: They've already tried to redefine inflation.

[Deweydog]

In keeping with the title of this thread, it’s worth taking a look at things after what has been an excellent run for the markets.

Looking at the broadest index, the S and P closed at its record high on January 3rd, 4796 points. It then sank to its low on June 16th at 3666 points. Since then, it’s now recovered 54% of those losses in less than two months. Some are calling for a double-barreled bear market, which is very much a possibility given persisting uncertainty, but this run has broken through some barriers which many thought were unbreakable in this current cycle.

[Deweydog]

6 hours ago, Chris said:

Percentage wise, this drop is nowhere near as bad as the 2008 recession.

I don't think we've seen the bottom yet though.  Labor and parts shortages abound.  In my industry, lead times are still increasing while we keep having to raise wages to keep employees.  The federal reserve said they'll keep bumping rates until inflation is under control. 

Outside of World War II, I doubt this country has seen such shortages in goods and labor.  It will take a while to unwind the economic impact of the world's response to Covid.

Supply chain issues remain but are easing, at least at the moment. It does have a rather tentative feel to it though, especially with the Taiwan situation thrown in the mix.

[Front Ranger]

Year over year home prices in CA were +2.8% in July: https://www.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2022releases/july2022sales

Doesn't sound too bad, until you realize that due to 9% inflation, in real terms homes in CA have now depreciated around 6% over the past year.

Related video: 

 

 

[Andie]

They’re going up in Texas.  A good deal.  My house is up 15% easily. 
luckily my taxes were frozen. 

Half of California has moved here.  
Our hope is when the economy gets back to normal they’ll leave all this heat and storms and go back.  We’d be okay with that.