Coming Economic/Markets Crash

[Andie]

And this won't help.....

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php

We expect more U.S. consumption of gasoline and higher prices this summer compared with last summer. We forecast that the retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States will average $3.84/gal during the summer of 2022. Last summer’s average price was $3.06/gal. In 2022, we expect real retail gasoline prices for the summer to be the highest since 2014. We forecast that U.S. gasoline consumption will average 9.2 million barrels per day (b/d), up 0.8% from last summer

The consequences of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, along with increasing global economic activity that contributes to more oil consumption throughout this summer, results in our expectation of high crude oil prices

[roadtonowhere08]

22 minutes ago, Andie said:

And this won't help.....

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php

We expect more U.S. consumption of gasoline and higher prices this summer compared with last summer. We forecast that the retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States will average $3.84/gal during the summer of 2022. Last summer’s average price was $3.06/gal. In 2022, we expect real retail gasoline prices for the summer to be the highest since 2014. We forecast that U.S. gasoline consumption will average 9.2 million barrels per day (b/d), up 0.8% from last summer

The consequences of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, along with increasing global economic activity that contributes to more oil consumption throughout this summer, results in our expectation of high crude oil prices

I paid $7 a gallon up by San Francisco early last summer, so that's the price to beat. 

[roadtonowhere08]

3 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

I didn't know Chicken Little had a newspaper.

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

I didn't know Chicken Little had a newspaper.

He's had them the last 50 years

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-years-of-failed-doomsday-eco-pocalyptic-predictions-the-so-called-experts-are-0-50/

[Andie]

40 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

I didn't know Chicken Little had a newspaper.

  Surprise!!!

[Front Ranger]

https://www.newsweek.com/credit-crunch-coming-opinion-1799542

[roadtonowhere08]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

https://www.newsweek.com/credit-crunch-coming-opinion-1799542

Great article and great points:

"Hopefully, after the smoke clears on the coming credit crunch we can raise questions about how the Fed and other central banks behave. Are their experimental monetary policies actually helpful? Or do they just encourage wasteful capital allocation and economic instability? Should the Fed even be attempting to steer the economy at all? Or should it just concern itself with the stability of the banking system and providing the economy with a fair rate of interest?"

[Deweydog]

Oh wow… a compromise incoming on the debt ceiling. Imagine that!

[Andie]

So, I’m curious as to why the US  is letting China lock up the global mineral markets. 
You know, little things like Lithium, Uranium, Cobalt and such.  They’re buying up African and Australian resources and here in the US they’re buying up our land like drunken sailors.  
So, we’re losing on the advanced manufacturing race and national protection of sovereignty and most likely our national stability and security.  

Meanwhile, Biden helicoptered to Camp David for a rest this weekend.

 

[roadtonowhere08]

The economy's doomsday clock has been reset

Wall Street's fearmongers were totally wrong about a recession

https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-recession-stock-market-crash-calls-wrong-economy-housing-2023-6

Thoughts anyone?

[Andie]

Well, I know the prognosticators have said Fall/Winter would bring us a recession.  If they’re backing off from that then I’m really pleased.  
Just don’t need that right now.  
On any level. 

[roadtonowhere08]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Well, I know the prognosticators have said Fall/Winter would bring us a recession.  If they’re backing off from that then I’m really pleased.  
Just don’t need that right now.  
On any level. 

I'd wager the pandemic was the stress test and blow off that a recession would cause.  We are in recovery and thriving mode.

[SnarkyGoblin]

A lot of the posts on this thread sure aren't aging well.  Especially the ones about about how the BBB bill was going to wreck inflation havoc.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

A lot of the posts on this thread sure aren't aging well.  Especially the ones about about how the BBB bill was going to wreck inflation havoc.

It did cause a huge jump in inflation, over 9% in June 2022 after the bill was signed by Biden

[Iceresistance]

Interest rates are still too high, we are not out of the woods because it could suddenly happen.

 

Some of the worst of the economic failures (Stock market crashes) are the very unexpected ones.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

It did cause a huge jump in inflation, over 9% in June 2022 after the bill was signed by Biden

This is silly. The inflation train was three miles down the track once that bill was signed. Wasn’t a good look politically, but over the long term it’s a drop in the bucket. Good ol’ supply and demand is the big driver, and unfortunately for the pundits it’s something that transcends politics.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Actually the USA isn’t doing to shabbily in the post-COVID economic department. Best growth and lowest inflation of any G7 country.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Post-COVID, workers at the bottom end of the wage scale have recovered 25% of what they lost due to four decades of growing economic inequality.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31010/w31010.pdf

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

This is silly. The inflation train was three miles down the track once that bill was signed. Wasn’t a good look politically, but over the long term it’s a drop in the bucket. Good ol’ supply and demand is the big driver, and unfortunately for the pundits it’s something that transcends politics.

Supply and demand factor in as well and many people I know are not buying anything new. They’re making due and taking care of what they have.  Cost of food is up and that bad enough but with everything else factored in it’s lousy. 

[Deweydog]

SP500 closes over 4.5k for the first time since 4/1/22…

[SnarkyGoblin]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:27 AM, Deweydog said:

This is silly. The inflation train was three miles down the track once that bill was signed. Wasn’t a good look politically, but over the long term it’s a drop in the bucket. Good ol’ supply and demand is the big driver, and unfortunately for the pundits it’s something that transcends politics.

Not to mention it's only now funds are slowly starting to be spent.

[Iceresistance]

On 4/27/2023 at 3:59 PM, Stormy said:

Budweiser up next?  Fox News is being Budweisered as well.

Aged like milk

[Iceresistance]

If this is true...

The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare 'full employment recession,' BlackRock says (msn.com)

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Confirmed Hate Speech and promoter of violence.

Trans Activist Called on Crowd to Punch TERF Women in the Face During Hate Inciting Speech (msn.com)

This is going to seriously tank the housing market!

[Iceresistance]

52 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This is going to seriously tank the housing market!

Fooey! I posted that on the wrong topic!

[Iceresistance]

Some are still insisting it's coming, but it is going to come just before Election Day 2024?

Recession at least a year away, economists now say (msn.com)

[Iceresistance]

Since April 2020, TRILLIONS were wiped out.

A $5.5 trillion savings wipeout is raising risks for the US economy (msn.com)

 

[Andie]

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

If this is true...

The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare 'full employment recession,' BlackRock says (msn.com)

I’ve been saying for a long time. Recession by end of this yr.   Fell on deaf ears. 

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’ve been saying for a long time. Recession by end of this yr.   Fell on deaf ears. 

We are also likely in for a nasty surprise.

 

People keep forgetting that the inflation is only settling at the higher prices, and the high inflation will eventually get replaced with high (or hyper) deflation, where (this is only my opinion) we could deflate over 20-30 years worth of inflation!

[Front Ranger]

[Front Ranger]

That Case-Shiller, what a weenie.

[Deweydog]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

That Case-Shiller, what a weenie.

Not quite as much here…

https://fortune.com/2023/07/24/housing-market-robert-shiller-home-price-prediction-outlook/amp/

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not quite as much here…

https://fortune.com/2023/07/24/housing-market-robert-shiller-home-price-prediction-outlook/amp/

One is a prediction, other is what has actually happened to date - pure data.

Either way, anyone expecting home prices to continue to appreciate or escape a correction after years of unprecedented appreciation (during unprecedentedly low rates) and then rapidly rising rates was being unrealistic. 

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One is a prediction, other is what has actually happened to date - pure data.

Either way, anyone expecting home prices to continue to appreciate or escape a correction after years of unprecedented appreciation (during unprecedentedly low rates) and then rapidly rising rates was being unrealistic. 

Who was?

[Iceresistance]

The Fed just raised Interest Rates again, now it seems like they really want to make sure that Inflation is below 2% but not below 0%!

[Deweydog]

55 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Fed just raised Interest Rates again, now it seems like they really want to make sure that Inflation is below 2% but not below 0%!

Now it’s seems like it? Today’s raise in rates is a drop in the bucket which was primarily filled last year.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Who was?

People who think home prices only go up. Trust me, as someone who has worked in real estate for a decade (though I'm currently transitioning out), there are plenty at this point.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

The Fed just raised Interest Rates again, now it seems like they really want to make sure that Inflation is below 2% but not below 0%!

Due to the base effect from last year and current trends, we could easily see inflation rise again in coming months.

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Due to the base effect from last year and current trends, we could easily see inflation rise again in coming months.

The Fed is going to rase rates higher, and the Inflation will be replaced with rapid Deflation.

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

People who think home prices only go up. Trust me, as someone who has worked in real estate for a decade (though I'm currently transitioning out), there are plenty at this point.

I’m sure there are. There are people out there that think all kinds of thing that are patently false. Hell, I can find all kinds of peer reviewed studies and such that will all but prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the world is not flat.

As it stands, the housing market went through/is going through a fairly mild correction after what was an unsustainable, generational run thanks to an unprecedented combination of insanely low rates, stimulus cash and the overall pandemic mindset. Yes, some markets have been impacted more than others but this has not been remotely comparable to 2008.

Here in Clark County, things leveled off pretty quickly and most sectors have seen the seasonal bounce with pricing pretty much where it was this time last year. You have to get into seven figure properties to see any real softness as was seen last summer. I think a lot of it has to do with acceptance of the fact that 30 year rates under 3 aren’t coming back, but rates in the 4.5 to 5.5 range probably are in the relatively near future. Most of the sentiment here is take the sting now and then ride the refi wave in 2025.