Coming Economic/Markets Crash

[Front Ranger]

34 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Fed is going to rase rates higher, and the Inflation will be replaced with rapid Deflation.

Very possible. The "soft landing" scenario seems to be more popular these days, but the only thing I think supporting that is the stock market bounce back this year, along with continued low unemployment.

It's possible this time really is different, but historically, unemployment is a lagging indicator of economic conditions. Almost all leading indicators are pointing to a weakening economy, and I think a recession is still quite possible, if not likely by end of the year.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m sure there are. There are people out there that think all kinds of thing that are patently false. Hell, I can find all kinds of peer reviewed studies and such that will all but prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the world is not flat.

As it stands, the housing market went through/is going through a fairly mild correction after what was an unsustainable, generational run thanks to an unprecedented combination of insanely low rates, stimulus cash and the overall pandemic mindset. Yes, some markets have been impacted more than others but this has not been remotely comparable to 2008.

Here in Clark County, things leveled off pretty quickly and most sectors have seen the seasonal bounce with pricing pretty much where it was this time last year. You have to get into seven figure properties to see any real softness as was seen last summer. I think a lot of it has to do with acceptance of the fact that 30 year rates under 3 aren’t coming back, but rates in the 4.5 to 5.5 range probably are in the relatively near future. Most of the sentiment here is take the sting now and then ride the refi wave in 2025.

 

The only thing, imo, keeping the housing market from falling to a more serious correction is very low inventory. People with 3% mortgages don't want to give those up unless they absolutely have to, so we're seeing way few sellers than normal, and that is currently fairly balanced with way fewer than normal buyers (especially first time buyers, who are mostly priced out in many markets).

If we get a real recession though, that could change things significantly. Even a 10% increase in forced sellers would tilt things a lot more in favor of buyers and likely cause larger price drops in many markets.

Denver metro is currently -7% from last year's seasonal peak.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The only thing, imo, keeping the housing market from falling to a more serious correction is very low inventory. People with 3% mortgages don't want to give those up unless they absolutely have to, so we're seeing way few sellers than normal, and that is currently fairly balanced with way fewer than normal buyers (especially first time buyers, who are mostly priced out in many markets).

If we get a real recession though, that could change things significantly. Even a 10% increase in forced sellers would tilt things a lot more in favor of buyers and likely cause larger price drops in many markets.

Denver metro is currently -7% from last year's seasonal peak.

Definitely. Inventory here is tight and that is a big part of it and many folks don’t have a reason to move at the moment when in a more hospitable environment they might test the waters. We refi’ed twice during the pandemic and are sitting currently with a 10 year mortgage (8 yrs to go) at 1.875%. It’s less than most new car payments these days. If the economy tanks in the near future, which is possible but unlikely, things could definitely change. But with that, it will be the housing market reacting rather than driving the decline as it did when the bubble burst in 2007-08.

[Andie]

Great move on that Interest rate.  
We did that under Obama and got 2.8. 
Grab it while you can.  Inflation is on the way.  

[Front Ranger]

 

[Iceresistance]

Even know that recession fears have gone down, we are not of the woods.

The sector that boosted us is very vulnerable to sudden changes since it's a relatively new sector.

 

And if I were project a recession to come, it's going to come within 2-4 months of Election Day 2024.

[Deweydog]

On 8/17/2023 at 12:01 AM, Front Ranger said:

 

It’s funny that you rail so hard against those who go down the climate change doomsday rabbit hole but go out of your way to post this. I’m sure he has his reasons but since his 2008 fame, he’s turned into a broken clock kind of prognosticator. Loves the attention.

[Front Ranger]

8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

It’s funny that you rail so hard against those who go down the climate change doomsday rabbit hole but go out of your way to post this. I’m sure he has his reasons but since his 2008 fame, he’s turned into a broken clock kind of prognosticator. Loves the attention.

Me posting this is the same as those pushing doomsday climate narratives? 

Ok.

[Iceresistance]

The stock market has been tanking recently

[Deweydog]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-unaffordability-case-shiller-prices-record-outlook-inventory-homes-2023-8

[Anti Marine Layer]

Gas prices are skyrocketing again here.

[Iceresistance]

Inflation is being stubborn

 

Inflation held steady in September, running hotter than expected (msn.com)

[SnarkyGoblin]

Man the OpenAI board really botched the layoff of their CEO.  MSFT gets hard to find talent and will probably pull back their investment to OpenAI 

Whoopsies.

https://www.wired.com/story/openai-staff-walk-protest-sam-altman/

[SnarkyGoblin]

IMO, msft will be top 3 best in the dow next 10 years.  They seem to have their s*it together when it comes to AI.

And they got the infrastructure to power it.

[Deweydog]

My pops sold his ~$300 in Microsoft stock after the ‘87 crash. I bring it up annually, planning to do so on Thursday.

[roadtonowhere08]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

My pops sold his ~$300 in Microsoft stock after the ‘87 crash. I bring it up annually, planning to do so on Thursday.

Ouch, that's gotta sting!

[roadtonowhere08]

4 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

IMO, msft will be top 3 best in the dow next 10 years.  They seem to have their s*it together when it comes to AI.

And they got the infrastructure to power it.

Now if they could just stop making Windows a shitshow.

[FroYoBro]

Bitcoin has had a great bounce back year after the bear market. 2024 will be good as well. 

[Mercurial]

Fed is indicating a pause very late in the economic cycle.  Not since the 1975 market crash have they been so late.  

[Deweydog]

All time high for the DOW as mortgage rates plummet top tier day over day. Strange times!

[Mercurial]

Crash the close!  Spx back to levels not seen since last week!

[SnarkyGoblin]

God this Musk guy fuccking sucks.

Elon Musk demands another huge payday from Tesla | CNN Business

He owned >20% of Tesla before he bought Twitter and had to sell a bunch of shares to pay for it.

Now he comes back and says "I want those shares back for doing my job as CEO of Tesla".  I hope the board kicks him in the proverbial nuts for saying something as dumb as that.

Quote

“If I have 25%, it means I am influential, but can be overridden if twice as many shareholders vote against me vs for me,” Musk wrote. “At 15% or lower, the for/against ratio to override me makes a takeover by dubious interests too easy.”

Then he should have thought of that before he bought twitter. He's as bad as my toddler for not understanding logical consequences.

[SnarkyGoblin]

I think we should rename the subject of this thread to Market SURGE. Lol

#fakemoney

 

[Iceresistance]

Well, the savings have been more depleted compared to last year. I only think we only slowed down the inevitable recession.

And why do they always try to happen when Election Day is close?

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Well, the savings have been more depleted compared to last year. I only think we only slowed down the inevitable recession.

And why do they always try to happen when Election Day is close?

Money buys votes.  
They’ll all take credit.

[SnarkyGoblin]

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/mega-rich-renew-call-on-global-leaders-at-davos-to-tax-our-extreme-wealth.html

I don't see how the US is going to fix their income disparity without a wealth tax.  I read within 10 years, we're going to have our first trillionare.

It feels like a house of cards waiting to crash

[Andie]

Say Cheese!!

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/mega-rich-renew-call-on-global-leaders-at-davos-to-tax-our-extreme-wealth.html

I don't see how the US is going to fix their income disparity without a wealth tax.  I read within 10 years, we're going to have our first trillionare.

It feels like a house of cards waiting to crash

My bigger concern is that the wealthy will start to become poorer because of the amount of debt they have piled up

[SnarkyGoblin]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

My bigger concern is that the wealthy will start to become poorer because of the amount of debt they have piled up

Your concern is that the billionaires will have less money?  Wtf?

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Your concern is that the billionaires will have less money?  Wtf?

Some people spend and spend and spend but refuse to pay off their debt they piled up, even Billionaires had that issue.

[roadtonowhere08]

35 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

My bigger concern is that the wealthy will start to become poorer because of the amount of debt they have piled up

 

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Some people spend and spend and spend but refuse to pay off their debt they piled up, even Billionaires had that issue.

[Andie]

They have accounting and investments firms that can make them a bundle while lowering their tax burden AND flying around in their private plane like John Kerry.  

[Andie]

On 12/13/2023 at 4:55 PM, Deweydog said:

All time high for the DOW as mortgage rates plummet top tier day over day. Strange times!

Yeah it is, Dewey.  
I’ve been trying to get my homeowners insurance bidded and lowered. Turns out there are fewer insurance companies as storm damage has been so bad over the past 2 yrs and payout to homeowners so high many insurance companies went belly up.  

Ergo, less competition and higher rates. 
Risks are higher due to wilder weather.  
The nightmare comes to all our doorsteps.  My insurance has tripled over the past 3 yrs.  Talk about P.O.’d.

[Iceresistance]

Be ready, China is the first to crash, then the rest of the world follows that?

 

[Deweydog]

S and P tickling the undercarriage of 5k as the crash continues…

[roadtonowhere08]

ATH for my investments.  What crash?

[SnarkyGoblin]

Gotta say, I got caught up in the runaway inflation belief that would have triggered a recession due to heavy handed interest rate hikes 

All the pandemic money, the market has been in the bull for so long.  It seemed like we were due for a drop and due then.

So I definitely pulled back in investments.  Missed out on a lot of good returns.

[roadtonowhere08]

32 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Gotta say, I got caught up in the runaway inflation belief that would have triggered a recession due to heavy handed interest rate hikes 

All the pandemic money, the market has been in the bull for so long.  It seemed like we were due for a drop and due then.

So I definitely pulled back in investments.  Missed out on a lot of good returns.

You gotta stay in for the long term.  All the drama and downturns are just dips in the upward trajectory.  I learned the hard way after 2020.  My stops in AMZN cashed me out right as it all hit the fan.  Good, right?  I waited too long (November) to get back in because I was sure it was going to get worse.  I should have got in during the middle of March.  I missed out on some great gains.  Never again.  Market timing does not work.

The following thread is pretty much all I follow for market news and perspectives:

https://stockaholics.net/threads/the-long-term-investor.6179/

I then do my own research if I want to buy/sell an investment based on what I read there.  I don't wait though.  If I sell, it goes right back into something else.  No cost averaging or waiting.  No profit taking or rebalancing either.  Invest in leaders, and let them run.

[SnarkyGoblin]

9 hours ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

You gotta stay in for the long term.  All the drama and downturns are just dips in the upward trajectory.  I learned the hard way after 2020.  My stops in AMZN cashed me out right as it all hit the fan.  Good, right?  I waited too long (November) to get back in because I was sure it was going to get worse.  I should have got in during the middle of March.  I missed out on some great gains.  Never again.  Market timing does not work.

The following thread is pretty much all I follow for market news and perspectives:

https://stockaholics.net/threads/the-long-term-investor.6179/

I then do my own research if I want to buy/sell an investment based on what I read there.  I don't wait though.  If I sell, it goes right back into something else.  No cost averaging or waiting.  No profit taking or rebalancing either.  Invest in leaders, and let them run.

Ya ya I know.  I'm still concerned about buying when we are essentially at all time highs everywhere.  I rebalanced recently with more international since IMO, they're due 

My lowly retired aunt worked who worked for the Tacoma News Tribune made no more than 35k a year at retirement has diamond hands.  She invested her ira (not a huge amount) all in Nvidia in 2015.   Now she has 3M dollars in just that stock and still holding. She'll never spend it...too loyal. Still drives a beater and has no kids.

I told her countless times over the years to diversify but she refused.  Good thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Look at all these 1% type progressives yucking it up in here.