Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 12z GFS teleconnections...would support a shifting track... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 12 + Now lock that in place Hopefully this trend verify so we all can get in on the action to kick off Feb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 gem animation (first wave, then ends with start of 2nd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 My hunch on models not digesting the EPO/Strat Warming may now begin to show...it's still early in the game but I think we will begin to see some sort of Panhandle Hook like we saw in LRC cycle #2. Ultimately, this storm has good potential to spread the wealth for the sub-forum. Notes aside, check out the Northern America snow cover...almost at 10 year highs! http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 gem animation (first wave, then ends with start of 2nd)Ya, looks like a 1 - 2 punch type of system. Euro showed it last night and now the GGEM is seeing it. Still enough variability in the models to see how this plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think on the GFS your seeing an incomplete phase until it gets to the Ohio Valley. Would explain the break in the snow band. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Euro at 168 is ripe for a northward turn. No high in Canada whatsoever., Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Euro at 168 is ripe for a northward turn. No high in Canada whatsoever.,Big difference is the second stronger wave is digging farther south along the west coast compared to the 12z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 850's look pretty cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 12z Euro developing a strong 992mb SLP in SE CO/NW OK... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 990 in SE CO at hr 192 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 This is a nice looking phased trough at HR 192....nice snows breaking out in NE.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 North too soon. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Looks warm need the high to be centered more over dakotas and Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Cutting far NW this run...C NE gets hit good...snow to mix for E NE/IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 A juicy beast on the 12z Euro....goes neg tilt and forms a nice trowal signature...thunderstorms for Chicago this run...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 euro http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160124/12Z/f240/sfcmslpconus.pngEuro has a 983mb low in N Wisc. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 going to see lots of swings the next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Bombs out as a western lakes cutter....wow...979mb... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Woah....some of that snow in E NE/IA/W WI is mix... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 If we could move that bomb a bit south and east, say put it over Geos and we are good. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 animated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 just needs to dig just a teeny tiny bit more into OK and TX Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yeah that was the big reason it went so far north The high needs to come in farther west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Tom what does euro show for Monday and Tuesday here ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Tom what does euro show for Monday and Tuesday here ?2-4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Euro/GFS night/day with the AO/NAO.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 will be interesting to see the control and ensembles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 The 12z Euro looses the strength of HP in western CA at HR 192 compared to previous runs when the ensembles are all increasing. Doesn't make sense. Something's gotta give. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 if we can keep the high this could be a major snowstorm for IA. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Euro/GFS night/day with the AO/NAO.... The 12z Euro looses the strength of HP in western CA at HR 192 compared to previous runs when the ensembles are all increasing. Doesn't make sense. Something's gotta give. Yeah. Hopefully it can spread the wealth for everyone here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Look at the run to run difference from last night....doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Not a run for the euro needs more of a eastward movement before cutting to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Strong storm but ouch on the track out of OK. Needs to dig further SE into Texas. Like what the GFS was showing last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 how do the 12z GEFS members look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 how do the 12z GEFS members look12z GEFS digging farther SE into Amarillo, TX towards E OK, then tracks towards lower lakes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 GFS/GEM takes southern route and Europe goes north into Canada. I wonder which will be correct. My guess this far out the European is out to lunch and has pretty much been hibernating all winter long. Stay asleep my friend...stay asleep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 GFS/GEM takes southern route and Europe goes north into Canada. I wonder which will be correct. My guess this far out the European is out to lunch and has pretty much been hibernating all winter long. Stay asleep my friend...stay asleep.Hahaha...I like that...at least it's showing a bomb diggidy in the central CONUS...more and more GEFS are showing sub 980's...would like to see the teleconnections shift more netural than positive on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 12z JMA carving out a deep trough at HR 192... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012412/jma_z500_vort_us_9.pngYou'd think this system would dig farther south given the time of year at which the jet is reaching peak intensity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Hahaha...I like that...at least it's showing a bomb diggidy in the central CONUS...more and more GEFS are showing sub 980's...would like to see the teleconnections shift more netural than positive on the Euro.I agree. Lots of time to model watch this one but at least there is a big storm to track. I'm sure we will see a couple runs where this bombs out somewhere on the EC. I remember the GHD storm where a model was showing it out to sea about 72hrs out. Looking forward to seeing the runs next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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