Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Snow is falling on most of the Cascade passes this afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 18z alert! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Some more fairly robust backdoor cold on the long range GFS this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Received a report from my source of a hailstorm at my residence and the ground turning white temporarily. Also received another report of lightning and "really loud" thunder around the same time. I am not home so I cannot verify these reports but I was sent pictures of hail covering the ground. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Received a report from my source of a hailstorm at my residence and the ground turning white temporarily. Also received another report of lightning and "really loud" thunder around the same time. I am not home so I cannot verify these reports but I was sent pictures of hail covering the ground.These things happen with a chilly unstable airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mega blast alert Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Mega blast alertHow much Carrot cake? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Double shot. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 These things happen with a chilly unstable airmass. Also a hallmark of spring at our location. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 How much Carrot cake?Lots and lots. No frosting for us, though. Snow to Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lots and lots. No frosting for us, though. Snow to Oregon.Typical. Only Oregon gets snow ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Holy crap... That 18z is the best the models have looked in a long time. Is actually pretty in line with the euro this morning, just slightly further west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Typical. Only Oregon gets snow ever. -15 to -20 850's over west Oregon and washinton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Someone wake Gorton the Fisherman the hell up!!!! ... The 18z has some hatches that may need to be baton down. Chilly-gee-willikers... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Holy crap... That 18z is the best the models have looked in a long time. Is actually pretty in line with the euro this morning, just slightly further west.The best run I have seen in years!!! I needed a freakin cigarette after watching that run... Some one slap me!! NOT you Jesse... You would enjoy it to much Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ugh, looks like this is almost certainly going to be another dry blast for us. Oh well, this winter was going on my sh*t list anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ugh, looks like this is almost certainly going to be another dry blast for us. Oh well, this winter was going on my sh*t list anyways.I can't tell if you are calling this cool trough a blast, or if you are referring to the one on the 18z 11 days from now and spwculating on the moisture then... Or just being sarcastic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Double shot.I think if we extrapolate out to hour 432 we could be looking at a triple blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Some more fairly robust backdoor cold on the long range GFS this afternoon.Nice to see both the GFS and Euro trending this way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 I can't tell if you are calling this cool trough a blast, or if you are referring to the one on the 18z 11 days from now and spwculating on the moisture then... Or just being sarcastic I'll let you know after I look at Brett Anderson's latest maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Nice to see both the GFS and Euro trending this way.I can't remember the last time I have seen -20 850mb temps here even in the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 A record cold February would be a kind of fun way to f*ck with everyone who thinks they can long range forecast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 A record cold February would be a kind of fun way to f*ck with everyone who thinks they can long range forecast. It would be awesome, but I highly doubt that will happen. Doesn't seem to be a lot of analogs for solidly great Februaries during strong Ninos. Quick hitting events ala 1995 seem to certainly be possible, though. That was a very warm month on the whole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 On a more realistic note, even the rpm is showing 1-2" for me this weekend. Fwiw it showed the same late December when I got 8". Wrf is more bullish around 4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 It would be awesome, but I highly doubt that will happen. Doesn't seem to be a lot of analogs for solidly great Februaries during strong Ninos. Quick hitting events ala 1995 seem to certainly be possible, though. That was a very warm month on the whole.Even the euro solution would be pretty darn cold though. But likely tonight there will be a big letdown after everyone shot their wad on the 18z. Gonna be hard to live up to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Just as I thought, major outlier. Our hopes will come crashing down with the 00z tonight. Would be pretty sweet to see a trend start though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Even the euro solution would be pretty darn cold though. But likely tonight there will be a big letdown after everyone shot their wad on the 18z. Gonna be hard to live up to that. Lol. Maybe I shouldn't even look at it. I haven't had time to check it yet. Will be interesting to see if it has ensemble support. The EURO ensembles seemed to not be as bullish about digging energy down the eastern periphery of the ridge. Although granted, it's unusual for the mean to pick up on those sorts of finer details at that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Even the euro solution would be pretty darn cold though. But likely tonight there will be a big letdown after everyone shot their wad on the 18z. Gonna be hard to live up to that.Pretty easy to shoot your wad when all we really have had the last two winters is bad case of blue balls. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lol. Maybe I shouldn't even look at it. I haven't had time to check it yet. Will be interesting to see if it has ensemble support. The EURO ensembles seemed to not be as bullish about digging energy down the eastern periphery of the ridge. Although granted, it's unusual for the mean to pick up on those sorts of finer details at that range.The ensemble was actually better than I would have expected. Several pretty chilly members. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire month of February. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 18z ensembles show the operational being a cold outlier, but there are actually a handful of members that look close to as chilly for that range. Mean is also below average in the LR now, colder than it was for the 12Z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire month of February. February 2003 redux? Things got close to being pretty good a few times that month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 The ensemble was actually better than I would have expected. Several pretty chilly members. With the amplified pattern ensembles may be missleading, as the charts that show 850mb temps don't show what is happening to the east. It may be more telling to look at one for Spokane or somewhere to our east. Because even if that ridge is further east than on the 18z, it would still be much colder than the 850 temps would show with far colder air to the east and offshore flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 It would be awesome, but I highly doubt that will happen. Doesn't seem to be a lot of analogs for solidly great Februaries during strong Ninos. Quick hitting events ala 1995 seem to certainly be possible, though. That was a very warm month on the whole. That's the point. Knowing that the weather will occasionally do whatever it wants for no apparent rhyme or reason is an enjoyable thought. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 18z ensembles show the operational being a cold outlier, but there are actually a handful of members that look close to as chilly for that range. Mean is also below average in the LR now, colder than it was for the 12Z.Can't expect too much agreement that far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February? Highs 50-55 lows 0-5 in North Bend. Sun angle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 What would temps be in pdx with -20 850mb temps in mid February?Cold. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Highs 50-55 lows 0-5 in North Bend. Sun angle.Sure is a dream killer this far removed from the solstice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 29, 2016 Report Share Posted January 29, 2016 Cold. Like bulbs retreating back into the ground cold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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