1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[gosaints]

Rgem looks awesome for Chicago and Milwaukee

Chicago stil looks good on the rgem.  Milwaukee cut back from previous runs.  Adjusted towards other guidance a bit

[gosaints]

Last day, day and a half trends were east on both Nov 20-21st, and Dec 28-29th systems..

Iowa is out

[jaster220]

4km is better

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010812/nam4km_asnow_ncus_16.png

 

I could def see some pretty intense banding with this sytstem. There are clear signs of that happening.

 

Wow, is there not going to be any tail-end wrap around?? Usually there is with these winding up phase storms, yet some of these maps give zilch to SEMI for example. Not picking that up very well or what? Lehs off of Lk. Michigan should through snow further east if nothing else.

[Geos]

06z RGEM...still snowing...

 

That cut off is extreme!

[Geos]

4km is better

 

 

Weird look to the band. Looks like someone sliced it and slid the top half to the east slightly.

[gosaints]

Hopefully the GFS isnt going for the win...

[hlcater]

The H over SD rules iowa out

[Geos]

Gfs the weakest out all models that I've seen. Probably average out the amounts and band position and run with it. This winter does favor a stronger solution.

[gosaints]

Gfs the weakest out all models that I've seen. Probably average out the amounts and band position and run with it. This winter does favor a stronger solution.

Well that and the GEOS snow magnet

[Geos]

Well that and the GEOS snow magnet

I think Tom might get a top amount out of this. I feel I will be on the north edge of higher amounts.

[gosaints]

I think Tom might get a top amount out of this. I feel I will be on the north edge of higher amounts.

Ya.... I like notre dame... and somewhere in Missouri

[Geos]

Ya.... I like notre dame... and somewhere in Missouri

 

South Bend - probably not. I don't think the cold air will get that far east personally. I think NW IN will do pretty good, but west of Michigan City.

[Tom]

Geo's, how do Lehs parameters look like? Still on the table?

[gosaints]

South Bend - probably not. I don't think the cold air will get that far east personally. I think NW IN will do pretty good, but west of Michigan City.

You are riding the NW hard GEOS.  Even the NW models have trended the other way in regards to snow totals.  You very well could be right I just dont see it.

[Tom]

How does the 12z GGEM look?

[gosaints]

How does the 12z GGEM look?

Shifted heaviest band south some but still good for you.  Southern LOT has the best totals

[Tom]

I figured south of I-80/88 will get the highest totals out of this one.

[gosaints]

I figured south of I-80/88 will get the highest totals out of this one.

obviously can rule out a better phase happening but probably right

[BLIZZARD09]

looks good for you and me Tom

[Tony]

Lot's can still happen with this storm so can't rule anyting out just yet. Have to watch the hi-res models as they start to hone in on the storm. South of us looks golden as that is where the higher qpf will be but I would not rule out NW burbs just yet as it depends where the defo band sets up. That area could see some very heavy snow rates for a few hours. Fun storm to track for sure.

[Geos]

Geo's, how do Lehs parameters look like? Still on the table?

 

On the NAM - yeah. 39-45 hours would be the prime time for IL. 42-45 hours especially. GFS is all NW Indiana, unless you're south of loop maybe.

[Geos]

You are riding the NW hard GEOS.  Even the NW models have trended the other way in regards to snow totals.  You very well could be right I just dont see it.

 

I've seen too many NW shifts in all my days of model watching. These type of system like to aim the heaviest snow band right into the southern end of lake MI. Beginning to think that under favorable conditions the NE winds off the water, helps the deformation band in some way.

I would pick Gary or just SW of there for the heaviest total in a 100 mile radius of here.

Could be an exception with this storm that is bypasses the end of the lake, but I kind of doubt it.

[jaster220]

You are riding the NW hard GEOS.  Even the NW models have trended the other way in regards to snow totals.  You very well could be right I just dont see it.

 

For those of us in SMI, Indy actually has good ideas this morn's AFD. Always good news when those well south of yby are expecting a quick transition to SN. Last minute trends have gone slightly (50-150 miles) SE wrt bigger events this season. Why would that chg now? Dec 28 was no slouch storm.

 

 

KIND AFD:

 

FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS

PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE RAPIDLY

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STEADILY SHIFTED THE

TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL

RUNS...WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN A BIT FASTER. ECMWF/NAM/OP GFS ALL

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MOVING NORTHEAST

TO LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE

OTHER TWO MODELS DUE TO A SLOWER PHASING WITH THE POLAR ENERGY.

INTERESTINGLY...A NUMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE EVEN

FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAN THE OP MODELS

DUE TO THE DELAYED PHASE...INDICATING THAT THE SOUTHEAST SHIFT MAY

NOT BE DONE YET. THE GGEM ON THE OTHER HAND PHASES MUCH FASTER THAN

THE CONSENSUS AND HAS A TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

 

WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER PHASING STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED EVEN

AT 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT...PLAN ON TRENDING TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL

CONSENSUS TRACK NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME WITH A SUBTLE LEAN

TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL BRING THE

COLDER AIR IN A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN

MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY BY

LATE EVENING...TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA

THROUGH THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST

SNOWFALL IN AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHEAST INTO LOWER

MICHIGAN...BUT KEEP SHIFTING THE HEAVIER BAND EVER SO SLIGHTLY

EASTWARD. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF

THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN

CONSERVATIVE ON AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT. HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST

OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER

AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN WABASH VALLEY WHERE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW

EARLIEST. ANY FURTHER SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW

TRACK WOULD DRAW COLDER AIR IN FASTER AND SUPPORT MORE SNOW. STAY

TUNED AS MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL FINE TUNE THE

DETAILS FURTHER

[Geos]

I just did some quick ball park measuring of how far things have shifted since the last run and the models we talk about on here have moved 25-50 miles respectively. NAM, GFS moved the least, GGEM moved the most. Could easily swing back some.

[jaster220]

I've seen too many NW shifts in all my days of model watching. These type of system like to aim the heaviest snow band right into the southern end of lake MI. Beginning to think that under favorable conditions the NE winds off the water, helps the deformation band in some way.

I would pick Gary or just SW of there for the heaviest total in a 100 mile radius of here.

Could be an exception with this storm that is bypasses the end of the lake, but I kind of doubt it.

 

GFS/GEFS have a pretty good handle on placement imo - just need to bump up actual totals for everybody, and fill in the edges stronger too.

 

 

[Geos]

Bernie is thinking the ULL moving in from the NW will build the snow back west still.

I think the GFS is too weak.

 

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/4100815092001/snow-rapid-freeze-to-cause-delays-from-st-louis-to-chicago?autoStart=true

[Tony]

Sure is a lot of energy with this storm. I did watch the video and not bad for the most part. I still think the track is too far east only because I believe there will be a better interaction/phase with the northern and southern streams which will track our storm farther NW and the models will begin to latch onto this. I don't see how there cannot be better interaction with the two streams. I could be way off on this but this is my thinking for now. If I am wrong so be it.

[gosaints]

Euro.....

[Geos]

Sure is a lot of energy with this storm. I did watch the video and not bad for the most part. I still think the track is too far east only because I believe there will be a better interaction/phase with the northern and southern streams which will track our storm farther NW and the models will begin to latch onto this. I don't see how there cannot be better interaction with the two streams. I could be way off on this but this is my thinking for now. If I am wrong so be it.

 

Watching where the baroclinic zone and the freezing line progress in the morning will be key.

 

Been noticing the models went too low with temps over the region. It indicate the low might cut further west than depicted. (Today's low, not tomorrow's.)

 

Edit:

Interesting to see that the ensembles from the RGEM & GGEM want to pull today's low further west... That would impact the baroclinic zone tomorrow.

They want to go into WI instead of NE IL now.

 

 

[jaster220]

Bernie is thinking the ULL moving in from the NW will build the snow back west still.

I think the GFS is too weak.

 

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/4100815092001/snow-rapid-freeze-to-cause-delays-from-st-louis-to-chicago?autoStart=true

Sure is a lot of energy with this storm. I did watch the video and not bad for the most part. I still think the track is too far east only because I believe there will be a better interaction/phase with the northern and southern streams which will track our storm farther NW and the models will begin to latch onto this. I don't see how there cannot be better interaction with the two streams. I could be way off on this but this is my thinking for now. If I am wrong so be it.

 

LOLz ;-)  I can see I'm in a tug-o-war with the rope strung across Lk. Michigan. You two (plus Tom) currently have me out-numbered. I'll round me up some re-enforcements, standby for news..  Still - great fun to be tracking another powerful winter storm for our region! Good Luck to y'all

[Geos]

LOLz ;-)  I can see I'm in a tug-o-war with the rope strung across Lk. Michigan. You two (plus Tom) currently have me out-numbered. I'll round me up some re-enforcements, standby for news..  Still - great fun to be tracking another powerful winter storm for our region! Good Luck to y'all

 

I think your fine where you're at.

You'll get the lake effect anyways.

[gosaints]

GEOS RAP south weak.

[Maxim]

looks good for you and me Tom

[gosaints]

NAM looks like it will hold its track early on quite a bit weaker however

[gosaints]

[Geos]

Models could be doing there 24 hours ahead of time fluky runs. If more models come in weaker, then it's probably safe to say there's a weakening trend for sure.

 

Not a total bust.

 

 

[Geos]

Actually the 4km NAM is showing that lake enhancement pretty nicely.

 

[westMJim]

Right now I am getting a steady rain with the temp at 37° and yes there is still a good bit of the sleet/ice left yet,  And now (drum roll please) here is the Short term AFD from GRR

 

     

SHORT TERM  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016  
 
WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY AS ENHANCED AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE  
EFFECT WITH GENERAL 6 TO LOCAL 9 INCH ACCUMS EXPECTED.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...SFC LOW TRACKS FROM QUAD CITIES AREA THROUGH  
WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH DRY SLOT EDGING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND ONLY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTS IN SFC CYCLOGENSIS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH RACES NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN ENTERING SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. STRONG UVVS  
COULD HELP COOL THE COLUMN AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW FROM WEST TO  
EAST SATURDAY EVENING. WILL GO WITH WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME  
SE CWA WHERE CHANGEOVER IS PROGGED TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR HEAVIER  
SNOW AMOUNTS.  
 
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG WITH  
LAKE EFFECT COULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  
   

[westMJim]

and now the long term

 

   
LONG TERM  
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016  
 
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM LATE  
MON INTO EARLY TUE THAT COULD CREATE MEDIUM TO HIGH IMPACTS FOR THE  
W/NW PORTION OF THE CWFA. MODELS HAVE BEEN LOCKED ON TO A STRONG JET  
STREAK/SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NW. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE  
RELATIVELY WEAK EARLY MON WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD. SNOW WILL RAMP UP  
LATE IN THE DAY WITH SW FLOW AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND INVERSION  
HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING  
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PATTERNS WITH THE SW FLOW. WE COULD BE  
LOOKING AT FAIRLY LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW RATES CENTERED ON MON  
NIGHT ALONG MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE AND NW COUNTIES.  
 
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...BUT WILL  
CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY  
IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER THE UPPER JET CORE STILL SOUTH OF THE AREA  
WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT GOING. WE ARE EXPECTING THE MEAN 1000-  
850MB FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE NW...FAVORING THE NW AND SW CORNERS OF  
THE CWFA.  
 
THE TREND FOR ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT IS INCREASING FOR  
THE WED NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO ANOTHER  
STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS  
TIME. MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES AND INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD OF  
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH  
DELTA T/S IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.  
 
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DIMINISHES A LITTLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK  
AS TEMPS LOOK TO MODIFY A LITTLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS AS  
THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTH A BIT. WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO  
THE JET THAT SHORT WAVES WILL BE PRONE TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING THE  
AREA MORE SNOW CHCS.  

 

We will see how this all plays out 

[gosaints]

Actually the 4km NAM is showing that lake enhancement pretty nicely.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160108/18Z/f48/acckucherasnowmw.png

My south bend is looking better