1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[Tom]

Switched over to light snow here...if I end up with 2" of wet snow...I'll be a happy camper...anything above that is a bonus IMO...that heavier banding should be fun and produce a nice "thump" of snow.

[FV-Mike]

All snow here now. That snow band is filling in nicely from the west. Would be a little concerned if I lived in NW Indiana

[Tom]

All snow here now. That snow band is filling in nicely from the west. Would be a little concerned if I lived in NW Indiana

Right?  I don't see them getting more than a couple inches...this was one of the oddest storms I've tracked this season...

[Geos]

We're cranking things up now. 33.4° with a steady snow.

[Tom]

Down to 33F and winds are starting to veer more out of the NNW...starting to accumulate on the colder surfaces...

[jaster220]

Same here, the overnight low was supposed to be upper 20s, so that tells me the arctic front is not progressing as far east as expected so perhaps that's why the models are back to trending a bit NW.  I didn't buy into these NW shifts at first, but it's certainly plausible.

 

Right?  I don't see them getting more than a couple inches...this was one of the oddest storms I've tracked this season...

 

Yep. Arctic "blast" FAIL! Nino effect, or what? What happened with this thing?  GRR got one of their better Met's on duty and my county did get added back into the WWA, but come on, this system's really playing the Lame Card for most of us. Clipper in couple days may double what this ends up giving me. Only POSSIBLE rescue plan could be precip setting in after dark. Temps around 6pm have been dropping quite a bit all week. (back to lurking..)

[Geos]

Needs to come down another degree. sub 32° line out in McHenry County.

Now 32.8°. Snow sticking on car now.

[Tom]

Needs to come down another degree. sub 32° line out in McHenry County.

Now 32.8°. Snow sticking on car now.

Wait till the 25dbz returns come north your way...I'm underneath it right now and these are some fatty flakes coming down at a good clip.

[jaster220]

@ Tom, Geos

 

Glad you guys are seeing the SN hitting over there..here's to a white period - starting NOW

[westMJim]

Temp is still 38° with a DP of 38° and radar shows mostly rain to our south and things moving due north.   so while GRR is still painting out around 5 to 8” for here.  I am not so sure that will play out.  We shall see. Have to go to work so will be doing other things for a while LOL

[Geos]

Snow just started sticking on the pavement. Once it gets dark and the wind starts picking up out of the NW, the roads are going to get really nasty.

 

Probably a little over done, but who knows.

 

[Tom]

Quarter sized flakes falling over here in these heavier returns.  Got about 1/2" and starting to accumulate better. Hope these heavier snows can last another 3 hours or so.  Prob pick up 2" or a bit more.

[Meichel]

Steady, wet, med/small flakes here in SE McHenry county. Been snowing for a couple hours, just now starting to stick on paved surfaces. 32º

[Geos]

Down to freezing now.

 

Really good rates should take hold now.

 

[Geos]

I can't see too much more than 3" here. If things would have been colder and not so wet to start with, I think the 4"+ amounts could have worked out.

 

5pm

Still dumping out there. Over 1.5" by now.

 

Got this special 1/10th ruler last week. No more rounding to 1/4ths, lol.

 

[Blugga]

Have reached 1.5" here so far. The bottom is a nice slush but not bad. Will probably end up with 2" total. Bummer 

[earthandturf]

Looks like a plowable event, that's what i was looking for. Maybe Monday night too?

[Geos]

Looks like a plowable event, that's what i was looking for. Maybe Monday night too?

 

Looks likely.

 

Just coming up on 1.5" now. Probably hit 3" with slightly better ratios towards the end.

[Iowa2015]

We recieived a maybe half inch to a inch of Snow on the western edge ofthis system/

[Geos]

We recieived a maybe half inch to a inch of Snow on the western edge ofthis system/

 

Wow, you even got snow.

 

Went to light snow for a short time, now back to moderate. Slowing falling down through 31°.

[Blugga]

Creeping past the 2" mark. Temp has fallen to 30ºF. You can tell it is getting very fluffy. 

[bud2380]

We recieived a maybe half inch to a inch of Snow on the western edge ofthis system/

Where in Iowa are you?

[Geos]

2.2" so far. Going to average under 10:1.

[Blugga]

2.5" here. Looks like that'll be it for me. Now we wait the cold.

[BLIZZARD09]

about  half an inch here,,thats it--What caused this storm to fizzle Tom?

[Iowa2015]

Where in Iowa are you?

 

Burlington

[Tom]

about  half an inch here,,thats it--What caused this storm to fizzle Tom?

It didn't necessarily fizzle.  The moisture was there, but the cold air didn't make it here in time...doh!

 

Getting a nice burst of moderate snow with nice fat/fluffy flakes.  Def more powdery.

[Tom]

LOT on FB just posted this...at least they came out and said they busted!

 

 

Forecast snow amounts for today's system certianly didn't pan out as we had forecast and we have canceled the Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect. While there was a swath of 1-3 inches of snow mainly near and to the northwest of I-55, for many areas the forecasted snowfall amounts didn't pan out as expected.

Forecasting snowfall is an extraordinarily complex process and involve many variables including temperatures at the ground, temperatures above the ground, moisture, lift (upward moving air), and even instability in some cases. At times the difference between an accurate forecast and a big busted forecast can be just a couple of degrees, as was the case today for portions of east central Illinois and northwest Indiana where we had forecast the heaviest snow to fall. We understand that many people depend on our forecasts to make their plans and in some make cases critical decisions, which is why we always strive to provide the most accurate forecast possible, but sometimes Mother Nature just doesn't cooperate.

Events like today's busted snowfall forecast illustrate nicely why our office does not put out forecast snowfall amounts more than a couple days out. Since there are just so many variables that can and frequently do change, it can be difficult to accurately nail a snowfall forecast 24 hours out, let alone 4 or 5 day out!

Despite the challenges the science of meteorology and forecasting present, we will continue to strive to provide you the best forecasts possible. Events like today's will be studied in the hopes of identifying factors that came into play that were not well forecast this time in the hopes of producing a better forecast next time.

Posted at 7:38 PM CST January 9th

[Tom]

I wish that cold air would have arrived sooner.  This last band coming through is so fluffy and I picked up a quick 0.5" of powder.  Reminds me of lake effect snow.

[bud2380]

That post by Chicago nws and same logic is why I refuse to put any stock into climate models trying to predict what our climate will be like 50+ years from now. There are just too many variables and despite tremendous advances in meteorology it remains an imperfect science.

[WBadgersW]

Huh, I was not expecting this snow. The grass was starting to show to.

[Maxim]

knew all along this storm would be a disappointment. 

[Geos]

3.3" here total. Snow stuck on everything. Even had 3" on the driveway. Bottom layer of snow is really wet, but the top is pretty dry. Down to 25°

Would have been widespread 4-6" totals if it would have been AOB freezing from the start.

[BLIZZARD09]

GEOS comes out on top again

[winterfreak]

Had some flurries here earlier. On an unrelated note go Chiefs.

[Money]

Over 2 here

[Geos]

GEOS comes out on top again

 

Wouldn't be surprised if there might be a few places just to the west and southwest that did slightly better. Banding never broke up between Crystal Lake and Kenosha like it did here for a time.

 

Never would have guessed the heaviest snow would have been outside the Winter Storm Warning area. Freezing line just now making it into Porter Co.

[NEJeremy]

Let's all stop posting and let maxim only make predictions since he's always right.

[Andrew NE]

Maxim what did you measure in your back yard, serious question?

[Tom]

Looks like this system managed to lay down some snow for our members in SE MI as the storm intensifies and wraps up near OH.  Niko should cash in on a couple inches from this.

 

LES starting to kick in the snow belts of SW MI/NW IN.