El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[TT-SEA]

Models are known to be wrong..in this case they're probably struggling with the handling of two oceanic rossby waves on either side of the equator.

 

OK... so this will become a much more organized and stronger Nina and "get off the ground soon enough"?

[Phil]

OK... so this will become a much more organized and stronger Nina and "get off the ground soon enough"?

It's already off the ground. There's a huge swath of cooler than average subsurface anomalies present..the instability waves associated with the RWs have just mixed it out closer to the EPAC so far. Those RWs are degrading now, however.

[TT-SEA]

Before 1950, 1906 and 1931 are both a good ENSO match. Two year, strong El Nino leading into cold neutral.

 

Both of those winters were SE ridge/PNW trough delights. 

 

 

I looked at both those years this spring.     

 

And both had some January cold and snow here.    January was the best month of both those winters.  

[TT-SEA]

It's already off the ground. There's a huge swath of cooler than average subsurface anomalies present..the instability waves associated with the RWs have just mixed it out closer to the EPAC so far. Those RWs are degrading now, however.

 

 

So its a solid Nina and going to get stronger?    This talk of cool neutral is wrong?

[Phil]

So its a solid Nina and going to get stronger? This talk of cool neutral is wrong?

It's going to be a Niña winter, albeit a modest one. Yes, I suspect the cool neutral talk is merely an example of people jumping the gun.

[TT-SEA]

It's going to be a Niña winter, albeit a modest one. Yes, I suspect the cool neutral talk is merely an example of people jumping the gun.

 

 

Fair enough.    Thanks for the insight.  

[Phil]

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight.

You're welcome, look long forward to watching it all play out.

[Geos]

I don't think so.    We have been talking about crazy trade wind bursts for months and we don't have much of a Nina.

 

And NOAA cancelled its La Nina Watch now.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html

 

 

All the models show a ENSO warming through the winter now.

 

 

After reading Cliff's blog post, it sounds like there is toss-ups to a neutral/borderline la Niña type winter in the PNW. It sounded optimistic at least.

 

Sounds like we need to watch and wait a bit longer to see what the cold pool does.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Does it really matter? I've looked at the numbers locally and I haven't noticed much benefit to having a stronger Nina. Snowfall seems to peak at an ONI of about -1.0, but neutral is almost just as good.

 

All of the Nina hype just typically leads to disappointment.

 

1998/99 and 1999/2000 were both lame. 2007/2008 was okay for northern areas, but there was little in the way of sustained cold or snowcover. 2010/11 was probably the best of the bunch, but it didn't hold a candle to 2008/2009. There were also several good winters in the early-to-mid 1990's that were neutral.

[Phil]

After reading Cliff's blog post, it sounds like there is toss-ups to a neutral/borderline la Niña type winter in the PNW. It sounded optimistic at least.

 

Sounds like we need to watch and wait a bit longer to see what the cold pool does.

Yeah, when ENSO is weak, factors like QBO/strat dynamics, peripheral low-frequency tropical forcing tendencies, and especially solar forcing (when anomalously high/low) are often more influential than ENSO et al.

[Front Ranger]

It's going to be a Niña winter, albeit a modest one. Yes, I suspect the cool neutral talk is merely an example of people jumping the gun.

 

So you think my -.4 to -.9 trimonthly call is too warm or no? Like I said, I think a continuation of dropping MEI is more important for the PNW at this point.

[Front Ranger]

Does it really matter? I've looked at the numbers locally and I haven't noticed much benefit to having a stronger Nina. Snowfall seems to peak at an ONI of about -1.0, but neutral is almost just as good.

 

All of the Nina hype just typically leads to disappointment.

 

1998/99 and 1999/2000 were both lame. 2007/2008 was okay for northern areas, but there was little in the way of sustained cold or snowcover. 2010/11 was probably the best of the bunch, but it didn't hold a candle to 2008/2009. There were also several good winters in the early-to-mid 1990's that were neutral.

 

I mostly agree.

 

Going further back, though, you had some really good moderate/strong Ninas for your area: 1970-71, 1964-65, 1955-56, and of course, 1949-50.

[Phil]

So you think my -.4 to -.9 trimonthly call is too warm or no? Like I said, I think a continuation of dropping MEI is more important for the PNW at this point.

I think your ONI call is fine. Regarding the MEI, I agree it's a decent (indirect) measure of convective and circulatory tendencies in the tropics.

 

However, I don't think splicing differentials of +/- 0.2 will be of any value, especially if the ENSO convective background is weaker (influentially) relative to peripheral and/or external forcings.

[snow_wizard]

Does it really matter? I've looked at the numbers locally and I haven't noticed much benefit to having a stronger Nina. Snowfall seems to peak at an ONI of about -1.0, but neutral is almost just as good.

 

All of the Nina hype just typically leads to disappointment.

 

1998/99 and 1999/2000 were both lame. 2007/2008 was okay for northern areas, but there was little in the way of sustained cold or snowcover. 2010/11 was probably the best of the bunch, but it didn't hold a candle to 2008/2009. There were also several good winters in the early-to-mid 1990's that were neutral.

 

Probably doesn't matter that much.  The Nino is over...that's what really matters.  I do think a decent Nina is almost inevitable either this winter or next winter though.  The Nino we just got done with was epic.  It will be made up for.

[westcoastexpat]

WxBell's preliminary winter forecast:

 

[westcoastexpat]

Probably doesn't matter that much.  The Nino is over...that's what really matters.  I do think a decent Nina is almost inevitable either this winter or next winter though.  The Nino we just got done with was epic.  It will be made up for.

 

Scientifically speaking, this is not necessarily true. A large El Nino event does not have to be followed by a strong or even medium La Nina in the years following. We could stay in neutral/slightly weak La Nina for a couple season before seeing another Nino. It's possible. "It will be made up for" is a risky statement.

[westcoastexpat]

Current ENSO probabilities right now:

 

 

We may see another Nino in the next couple of seasons, so I wouldn't bank on anything at this point. Neutral winter seems more likely at this stage.

[westcoastexpat]

i think the biggest concern for the PNW right now, regardless of the ENSO state:

 

 

 

The return of the blob.

 

The only way to offset the effects of the blob would be to have a strong ENSO state either way.. and given we're looking at a neutral/weak ENSO state... the blob is going to take precedence.

 

My call right now: warm fall and early winter. I'd say expect a back loaded winter/cold spring.

[Geos]

WxBell's preliminary winter forecast:

 

 

When does Bastardi not paint snowy and cold in the east!?

Even with weak la Niña conditions I would expect above normal snowfall in the Northwest at least.

[ShawniganLake]

i think the biggest concern for the PNW right now, regardless of the ENSO state:

 

 

 

 

The return of the blob.

 

The only way to offset the effects of the blob would be to have a strong ENSO state either way.. and given we're looking at a neutral/weak ENSO state... the blob is going to take precedence.

 

My call right now: warm fall and early winter. I'd say expect a back loaded winter/cold spring.

Is that anomaly not centered farther to the west in comparison to last year. The PDO is still dropping.

Where did you disappear to during the warm season?

[westcoastexpat]

Is that anomaly not centered farther to the west in comparison to last year. The PDO is still dropping.

Where did you disappear to during the warm season?

 

I don't live in the PNW during the summer!

 

The anomaly is not in a favourable position for PNW at all. It's in a similar spot to 2013-2014. But it would open the door for retrograde ridge set ups.

 

I do see this as a below normal precip (dry) season. I don't buy that it will be above normal temp-wise, though. I think it will be variable.

[westcoastexpat]

Blob position comparison for Feb-Mar 2014:

 

[westcoastexpat]

Typically you'd see a blocking area of high pressure over that warm pool, and it would be warm because of the warm waters--it would kill the chance of any modified Arctic air coming from the north. We'd need a retrograding ridge come from the east and pool in cold from central Canada.

[Phil]

i think the biggest concern for the PNW right now, regardless of the ENSO state:

 

 

 

The return of the blob.

 

The only way to offset the effects of the blob would be to have a strong ENSO state either way.. and given we're looking at a neutral/weak ENSO state... the blob is going to take precedence.

 

My call right now: warm fall and early winter. I'd say expect a back loaded winter/cold spring.

The blob is mostly an effect of the strong GOA/NPAC ridging that's dominated this summer, not really a pattern forcing.

 

Ocean/Atmosphere coupling over the NPAC has repeatedly been found to be weak..SSTs/columnar thermals are just too cold in general for convective coupling, and zonal winds are dominated by peripheral/off-domain forcings.

[Phil]

Example, new research finds that only 8% of the observed atmospheric behavior over the NPAC is explainable via the PDO/NPAC SSTAs:

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1

[ShawniganLake]

Typically you'd see a blocking area of high pressure over that warm pool, and it would be warm because of the warm waters--it would kill the chance of any modified Arctic air coming from the north. We'd need a retrograding ridge come from the east and pool in cold from central Canada.

Looks like the warm blob is centered around 150W as of now.  A block in that position isn't exactly a winter killer here.

[Phil]

The sign of the PDO/OPDO (SST reflection in NPAC) does not help predict pattern tendencies going forward.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00057.1

 

Based on analysis of a coupled model simulations with and without variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it is demonstrated that knowing the current value of the ocean surface temperature–based index of the Pacific decadal oscillation (the OPDO index), and the corresponding atmospheric teleconnection pattern, does not add a predictive value for atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months. This is because although the OPDO index evolves on a slow time scale, it does not constrain the atmospheric variability in subsequent months, which retains its character of white noise stochastic variability and remains largely unpredictable. Further, the OPDO adds little to the atmospheric predictability originating from the tropical Pacific during ENSO years.

[westcoastexpat]

Looks like the warm blob is centered around 150W as of now.  A block in that position isn't exactly a winter killer here.

 

Nobody said winter killer!

 

I think the issue will be moisture. That type of pattern, if it locked into place, would not be conducive to much snow.

[snow_wizard]

The blob is mostly an effect of the strong GOA/NPAC ridging that's dominated this summer, not really a pattern forcing.

 

Ocean/Atmosphere coupling over the NPAC has repeatedly been found to be weak..SSTs/columnar thermals are just too cold in general for convective coupling, and zonal winds are dominated by peripheral/off-domain forcings.

 

The blob isn't the same this time.  That's classic negative PDO.  In fact the PDO was negative on the latest NOAA update.  The original post about this was mistaken on saying this is bad for us.

[snow_wizard]

Example, new research finds that only 8% of the observed atmospheric behavior over the NPAC is explainable via the PDO/NPAC SSTAs:

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1

 

Not surprising.  The SST anoms over the NPAC are a product of atmospheric anoms mainly over the GOA.

[snow_wizard]

Scientifically speaking, this is not necessarily true. A large El Nino event does not have to be followed by a strong or even medium La Nina in the years following. We could stay in neutral/slightly weak La Nina for a couple season before seeing another Nino. It's possible. "It will be made up for" is a risky statement.

 

I disagree. If you look at very strong long duration El Ninos it's pretty clear significant La Nina follows.  The scope of the last Nino was extraordinary.

[Phil]

The blob isn't the same this time. That's classic negative PDO. In fact the PDO was negative on the latest NOAA update. The original post about this was mistaken on saying this is bad for us.

I don't think it's "bad or "good". I don't think it means much of anything..cool, higher latitude SSTs are extremely overrated as a forcing, in my opinion. They're an excellent measure of dominant low frequency pattern tendencies that have already occurred, however, so by that measure they might or might not have extrapolative value.

 

I'd argue the PDO might be the most overrated "variable" in the entirety of seasonal forecasting, when considered to be a "forcing".

[snow_wizard]

WxBell's preliminary winter forecast:

 

 

I would love to see the reasoning on this.  I would bet my next paycheck this will not come close to verifying.  I suppose a nationwide warm winter isn't out of the question, but what this is showing is almost certainly wrong.  FWIW the CPC is pretty much opposite of this.

 

BTW this forecast is 2 months old.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think it's "bad or "good". Cool, higher latitude SSTs are extremely overrated, in my opinion.

 

I was mainly pointing out he was trying to say this was like the blob the last couple of winters and it most certainly isn't.

[Phil]

I was mainly pointing out he was trying to say this was like the blob the last couple of winters and it most certainly isn't.

Whether it's similar, or different, I don't think it means much of anything. Each time we research the nature of the NPAC coupling on a low-pass filter, the more blatantly obvious it becomes that the NPAC SSTs have little, if any, influence on the dominant longwave pattern.

[snow_wizard]

Whether it's similar, or different, I don't think it means much of anything. Each time we research the nature of the NPAC coupling on a low-pass filter, the more blatantly obvious it becomes that the NPAC SSTs have little, if any, influence on the dominant longwave pattern.

 

I agree to a large extent.  It's kind of a chicken or the egg thing.

[westcoastexpat]

I disagree. If you look at very strong long duration El Ninos it's pretty clear significant La Nina follows.  The scope of the last Nino was extraordinary.

 

But it's not right now. We may not even have a La Nina this season.

[westcoastexpat]

I was mainly pointing out he was trying to say this was like the blob the last couple of winters and it most certainly isn't.

 

It is very similar to what it was going into the 2013-2014 winter season, but I'm not going to start a back and forth over it. Every season you say it's going to be colder and snowier than normal, so I'm not surprised to see you absolutely sure of it once again.

[snow_wizard]

But it's not right now. We may not even have a La Nina this season.

 

That is possible.  I think a progression like 1983-84 and 1984-85 may be in the cards.  Marginal Nina the first winter stronger the next. The big trade wind burst coming up may get the Nina really going.

[snow_wizard]

It is very similar to what it was going into the 2013-2014 winter season, but I'm not going to start a back and forth over it. Every season you say it's going to be colder and snowier than normal, so I'm not surprised to see you absolutely sure of it once again.

 

I knew the last couple of winters would be horrible.  That's why I stayed away so much.