El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[TT-SEA]

Did you already lose the link to the hires daily maps I gave you?

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

I did lose the link.   I will add it again now.

 

Looks about the same.  

[Phil]

Yeah, no difference really, but the maps update more frequently and provide more detail.

[Phil]

If you really want in-depth SSTA maps/analysis, TropicalTidbits.com w/ CDAS is the best, IMO.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[Phil]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Phil]

Plus, it updates four times per day. Hard not to love that.

[snow_wizard]

What's with the "blob" reappearing? Or is that just a seasonal feature this time?

 

Typical GOA warm pool associated with the developing negative PDO.  The SSTs off the West Coast are colder than normal now.

[wx_statman]

1916-17 was also a Nina. Very nice cold season in the PNW. 

 

Analog?

[Front Ranger]

1916-17 was also a Nina. Very nice cold season in the PNW. 

 

Analog?

 

So you're calling for a 100 year winter??? 

[wx_statman]

So you're calling for a 100 year winter??? 

 

100 year winter? That might get old. 

[westcoastexpat]

Not yet La Nina territory.  Looks to be a weak Nina/neutral year, which is usually pretty good for PNW winters.

[Front Ranger]

Not yet La Nina territory. Looks to be a weak Nina/neutral year, which is usually pretty good for PNW winters.

Strictly from an ENSO perspective, we haven't seen a lot of weak Ninas following major El Ninos. 1983, 1966, and 1958 are the closest matches in the modern era.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Strictly from an ENSO perspective, we haven't seen a lot of weak Ninas following major El Ninos. 1983, 1966, and 1958 are the closest matches in the modern era.

 

Not quite as sexy as the 1916, 1943, 1950 analogs 

[BLI snowman]

1966-67 was an unheralded bad winter. Negative neutral ENSO and negative PDO and it still turned into a pathetic blowtorchy poopfest without any sub 40 degree highs at PDX. Followed by a crappy cold March/April and a tinderbox summer. A truly awful stretch of weather. 

[Phil]

Another round of trades initiates next week:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/80880376-C32C-41FC-91BE-58A3F4C47CC2_zpsiganyuk1.gif

[Phil]

Those westerly anomalies around 90E are classic a classic EHEM forcing (Niña) feature, though their persistence at 90E in particular reflects a coherent -IOD signature, which has been absent in most recent Niña summers beyond mid-July..unusual to find a circulation quite like this one in recent memory..

[Black Hole]

Those westerly anomalies around 90E are classic a classic EHEM forcing (Niña) feature, though their persistence at 90E in particular reflects a coherent -IOD signature, which has been absent in most recent Niña summers beyond mid-July..unusual to find a circulation quite like this one in recent memory..

So what are you thinking, generally, for this winter?

 

I am still thinking about it. 

[Phil]

So what are you thinking, generally, for this winter?

 

I am still thinking about it.

Other than a tendency for stronger and/or poleward biased Pacific based anticyclones (some form of NPAC blocking) given the entrenching +QBO wave @ 50mb, I'm not sure what to expect.

 

The rest will hinge on the nature of the PV/NAM state and the degree of vertical coupling in that regard, as well as the strength and longitude of the tropical convection over the IO/PAC between 20N/20S..and how these variables interact with one another and/or are influenced/affected by external (solar) forcing.

[wx_statman]

1966-67 was an unheralded bad winter. Negative neutral ENSO and negative PDO and it still turned into a pathetic blowtorchy poopfest without any sub 40 degree highs at PDX. Followed by a crappy cold March/April and a tinderbox summer. A truly awful stretch of weather. 

 

1966-67 and 1999-00 are brothers in that regard. 

 

'66-67 was ridiculous though. No freeze at PDX until 1/31 and we're talking pre-UHI. 

[BLI snowman]

1966-67 and 1999-00 are brothers in that regard.

 

'66-67 was ridiculous though. No freeze at PDX until 1/31 and we're talking pre-UHI.

12/25 actually, but prior to 2012-13 that was still the record for PDX's latest first freeze. 1999-00 also flirted with that record.

[wx_statman]

12/25 actually, but prior to 2012-13 that was still the record for PDX's latest first freeze. 1999-00 also flirted with that record.

 

My bad. I should have said "sub 32" since 1/31 was the first time we managed 31 degrees. 

 

I actually relied on memory from years ago for that stat, and forgot that 12/25 hit 32. Should have double checked!

[BLI snowman]

My bad. I should have said "sub 32" since 1/31 was the first time we managed 31 degrees.

 

I actually relied on memory from years ago for that stat, and forgot that 12/25 hit 32. Should have double checked!

I mostly remembered the 12/25 thing because 2012 is still pretty fresh in my mind. I remember the weenie anticipation over us breaking the record by a few days that year.

 

The sad thing is it's one record that I'm sure we'll break again.

[wx_statman]

I mostly remembered the 12/25 thing because 2012 is still pretty fresh in my mind. I remember the weenie anticipation over us breaking the record by a few days that year.

 

The sad thing is it's one record that I'm sure we'll break again.

 

And I can't believe I forgot it! I definitely remember setting the record in 2012. 

 

We'll absolutely break that record again. Its low hanging fruit anytime before January. 

[BLI snowman]

And I can't believe I forgot it! I definitely remember setting the record in 2012.

 

We'll absolutely break that record again. Its low hanging fruit anytime before January.

I'd give it another 12 years or so before it's toast.

[snow_wizard]

Another round of trades initiates next week:

 

 

Could you post a link for that graphic?  The site I was using stopped updating a few months ago.

[Phil]

Could you post a link for that graphic? The site I was using stopped updating a few months ago.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

[Front Ranger]

Long live La Neutral!

[snow_wizard]

Long live La Neutral!

 

I'm betting weak Nina this winter and a moderate or strong next winter.  Kind of like the 1983-84 and 1984-85 progression.

[snow_wizard]

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

 

Thanks!

 

The update looks pretty crazy with that trade wind burst.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most long range forecasts show neutral heading toward weak nino as we approach next summer. 

[snow_wizard]

Most long range forecasts show neutral heading toward weak nino as we approach next summer. 

 

Never happen.

[Geos]

Pretty good negative anomaly pool happening now.

 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good negative anomaly pool happening now.

 

 

With a crazy trade wind burst coming this thing will get off the ground soon enough.  As for a Nino next year...nearly impossible given the scope of the recent Nino.  It would be unprecedented.

[TT-SEA]

With a crazy trade wind burst coming this thing will get off the ground soon enough.  As for a Nino next year...nearly impossible given the scope of the recent Nino.  It would be unprecedented.

 

 

I don't think so.    We have been talking about crazy trade wind bursts for months and we don't have much of a Nina.

 

And NOAA cancelled its La Nina Watch now.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html

 

 

All the models show a ENSO warming through the winter now.

 

[Front Ranger]

To be fair, ENSO models are notoriously unreliable.

 

I do think a tri-monthly ONI peak between -.4 and -.9 is most likely now, so yes, basically weak -ENSO whether it technically ends up as a La Nina or neutral winter.

 

MEI is more telling, in my opinion. For Jul/Aug, it fell to .125, the lowest reading since Feb/Mar 2014. It was also lower than years like 2012, 2005, 2001, 1983, 1980, 1958.

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, ENSO models are notoriously unreliable.

 

I do think a tri-monthly ONI peak between -.4 and -.9 is most likely now, so yes, basically weak -ENSO whether it technically ends up as a La Nina or neutral winter.

 

MEI is more telling, in my opinion. For Jul/Aug, it fell to .125, the lowest reading since Feb/Mar 2014. It was also lower than years like 2012, 2005, 2001, 1983, 1980, 1958.

 

 

To be fair... I don't think "this thing will get off the ground soon enough" either.     I agree that we will probably hover on the cool side neutral this winter.    Something that was being mocked as a busted prediction by others as recently as July.   I never really predicted it... just said it was what I preferred.   Looks like it going to work out that way now.  

[Front Ranger]

To be fair... I don't think "this thing will get off the ground soon enough" either.     I agree that we will probably hover on the cool side neutral this winter.    Something that was being mocked as a busted prediction by others as recently as July.   I never really predicted it... just said it was what I preferred.   Looks like it going to work out that way now.  

 

I think the lower the MEI gets heading into winter, the better things look for the PNW. Weak -ENSO/neutral winters tend to be better following a Nina, or within an established ENSO regime.

 

How do you feel about 1966-67 or 1958-59? Because those are probably the two best ENSO progression matches at this time.

[TT-SEA]

I think the lower the MEI gets heading into winter, the better things look for the PNW. Weak -ENSO/neutral winters tend to be better following a Nina, or within an established ENSO regime.

 

How do you feel about 1966-67 or 1958-59? Because those are probably the two best ENSO progression matches at this time.

 

 

Yeah... both those winters were pretty depressing.   Lots of rain and almost no snow even at my location.   We sort of had that last winter actually in terms of persistent precipitation.  At least there was more snow last winter.  

 

Phil also mocked my use of the MEI for analog years though.  

 

There are lots of neutral years to look at... with lots of different results.    Its tough to have solid analog years with ENSO neutral conditions.   Other factors come into play more prominently. 

[Phil]

I don't think so. We have been talking about crazy trade wind bursts for months and we don't have much of a Nina.

 

And NOAA cancelled its La Nina Watch now.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html

 

 

All the models show a ENSO warming through the winter now.

 

Models are known to be wrong..in this case they're probably struggling with the handling of two oceanic rossby waves on either side of the equator.

[BLI snowman]

Before 1950, 1906 and 1931 are both a good ENSO match. Two year, strong El Nino leading into cold neutral.

 

Both of those winters were SE ridge/PNW trough delights. 

[Phil]

Yeah... both those winters were pretty depressing. Lots of rain and almost no snow even at my location. We sort of had that last winter actually in terms of persistent precipitation. At least there was more snow last winter.

 

Phil also mocked my use of the MEI for analog years though.

 

There are lots of neutral years to look at... with lots of different results. Its tough to have solid analog years with ENSO neutral conditions. Other factors come into play more prominently.

You're making stuff up again. I'm more than willing to drag up your posts on this matter.

 

I mocked you for using 1958-59 as a summer analog because it was essentially a weak Niño..turns out, I was correct as it was a terrible summer pattern analog.