GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Snowlover76]

That might have been the worst bet

for him it is. 

[Money]

you have paypal?

Yeah I never use it so I'll see if I can log in yet

[Geos]

CMC stretching out that low after it gets into MO. Convection could be the reason too.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z ggem

[jcwxguy]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160201/00Z/f066/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Madtown]

Money and Geos, are these models to be believed or is something off with them. They all show Madison and most of south central/west with with some big accumulations now.

[Grizzcoat]

 

 

FORECAST MODELS

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188

 

00Z FEB01 * - APPROXIMATED

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 00Z 01-FEB 2.4 -1.0 1013 79 17 548 538

MON 06Z 01-FEB 1.0 -0.7 1015 70 15 0.00 550 537

MON 12Z 01-FEB -0.6 -0.5 1016 72 41 0.00 550 537

MON 18Z 01-FEB 3.4 -2.3 1017 67 98 0.00 550 536

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.6 -2.9 1012 83 99 0.08 548 539

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 1.0 -3.7 1008 91 99 0.17 546 540

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.0 999 95 99 0.58 536 537

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.2 -4.1 999 94 65 0.18 532 532

WED 00Z 03-FEB -1.4 -7.5 1006 89 99 0.06 532 526

WED 06Z 03-FEB -5.4 -7.6 1016 88 91 0.02 536

 

Snowlover--- as long as your throwing money away,, I need beer money for tomorrow after work. I don't always get free beer, but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis!!!

[Geos]

CMC went south a good 50 miles once it approached NW IN.

 

[Geos]

Money and Geos, are these models to be believed or is something off with them. They all show Madison and most of south central/west with with some big accumulations now.

 

I would definitely give those models credit, they're not moving NW. If there was a chance at a NW trend, we would see it by now.

[NEJeremy]

the guy who lives in Lincoln does realize that EVERY MODEL except for the GFS give Lincoln a ton of snow, doesn't he? NAM, 4k NAM, Euro, Canadian, RGEM, Euro Parallel, GEFS.....

[Money]

what a storm

5-10 inches possibly, $25, and a weatherbell monthly subscription for free 

[hlcater]

GGEM will not budge with that southern track.

[jcwxguy]

FORECAST MODELS

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188

00Z FEB01 * - APPROXIMATED

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

MON 00Z 01-FEB 2.4 -1.0 1013 79 17 548 538

MON 06Z 01-FEB 1.0 -0.7 1015 70 15 0.00 550 537

MON 12Z 01-FEB -0.6 -0.5 1016 72 41 0.00 550 537

MON 18Z 01-FEB 3.4 -2.3 1017 67 98 0.00 550 536

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.6 -2.9 1012 83 99 0.08 548 539

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 1.0 -3.7 1008 91 99 0.17 546 540

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.0 999 95 99 0.58 536 537

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.2 -4.1 999 94 65 0.18 532 532

WED 00Z 03-FEB -1.4 -7.5 1006 89 99 0.06 532 526

WED 06Z 03-FEB -5.4 -7.6 1016 88 91 0.02 536

Snowlover--- as long as your throwing money away,, I need beer money for tomorrow after work. I don't always get free beer, but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis!!!

that the parallel gfs or op?

[Snowlover76]

the guy who lives in Lincoln does realize that EVERY MODEL except for the GFS give Lincoln a ton of snow, doesn't he? NAM, 4k NAM, Euro, Canadian, RGEM, Euro Parallel, GEFS.....

The GFS has been super good all winter though.   Cant bet against it 

[hlcater]

FYI UKMET came in way NW.

[Snowlover76]

FYI UKMET came in way NW.

The Euro usually follows what the Ukie shows so this isn't good.  

 

 

good for my bet though 

[Geos]

GGEM will not budge with that southern track.

 

Gone even farther south to where it was a couple days ago.

You guys in eastern NE and the top NW 2/3 rd's of Iowa are just fine. GFS over does the warm air advection aloft.

 

[GDR]

The Euro usually follows what the Ukie shows so this isn't good.

It does?

 

good for my bet though

[Grizzcoat]

Reg GFS

[Madtown]

Euro splits the difference to the tip of lake Michigan. That's my call.

[Snowlover76]

 

The Euro usually follows what the Ukie shows so this isn't good.

It does?

 

good for my bet though

 

I guarantee the Euro goes well NW with its 0z run later tonight. 

[gosaints]

Weak turd and southeast might win out but I am guessing this one isnt done with the curveballs

[Geos]

FYI UKMET came in way NW.

 

But look at where it takes the low - via Mexico!

Something tells something didn't get initialized correctly. It does correct and follows the GFS mostly.

 

[Money]

Check out hr 36 and 42 it goes south from that spot lol

[Snowlover76]

good God thats a bad model

 

I take back what I said earlier.  I still think the Euro goes well NW though. 

[Madtown]

Lol

[gosaints]

The ukie has seemed to be.virally infected for weeks

[Money]

The ukie has seemed to be.virally infected for weeks

Yeah something's up with it

[gosaints]

Yeah something's up with it

The ec blizzard put it into a state of shock

[NEJeremy]

good God thats a bad model

 

I take back what I said earlier.  I still think the Euro goes well NW though. 

You've said that the last 6 euro runs. dude we're good

[gosaints]

Looking more and more like a 6 inch event around here given tonight runs.

 

I take that back I am.riding the NMM. 18 inches easy with more to come.

 

Edit number 2... It feels like we have tracked this for 2 weeks.

[Madtown]

What a ridiculous hobby. Been watching this for over a week and here we are 1.5 days out and still details are far from certain.

[Scott26]

Jim Cantore is in Omaha. I think you Nebraska posters are going to be fine haha.

[ToastedRavs]

I am too drunk to recognized anything.nits Mardi gras in Iowa. Night before caucus. Lots of beads around

[ToastedRavs]

Am I gonna Win or lose?

[Geos]

I am too drunk to recognized anything.nits Mardi gras in Iowa. Night before caucus. Lots of beads around

 

It must be a real circus there.

[jcwxguy]

Euro has started

[East Dubzz]

I am too drunk to recognized anything.nits Mardi gras in Iowa. Night before caucus. Lots of beads around

I suppose the username fits right about now, huh?

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160201/00Z/f024/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

12z euro para fwiw