GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[gabel23]

So, GFS went SE quite a bit, GGEM went NW quite a bit and now are pretty much in agreement. 

Which means if the EURO holds true than every major long range model is pretty much in agreement with 7 days to go.......

[Geos]

There would be widespread 20" amounts if PW calculated the Kuchera ratios. 

 

Just after 114 hours it comes ashore in California on the GFS. I would say the GFS and GGEM are close to an agreement.

 

 

[winterfreak]

Living on the edge as usual. Need perfect setup and timing which has been near impossible this year.

[gosaints]

There are 2 major camps on the 0z gefs. A handful way southeast and a bunch of prettu hard cuts

[Money]

There are 2 major camps on the 0z gefs. A handful way southeast and a bunch of prettu hard cuts

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012700/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_30.png

[Money]

There are 2 major camps on the 0z gefs. A handful way southeast and a bunch of prettu hard cuts

 

Oddly enough though only one or two take the system into Wisconsin or Minnesota. Most take it through N. IL

[gosaints]

Oddly enough though only one or two take the system into Wisconsin or Minnesota. Most take it through N. IL

Yep the cut early and they flatten as they hit the high. A good sign. If that is weaker no bueno

[Money]

GGEM Ensembles

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_168.png

[Money]

Take your pick:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_168.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_168.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016012700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_168.png

[Geos]

If they are south of you when they hit the wall and flatten out, big snow totals will be just on the other side of the low. Can't wait to see the snowfall GEFS member maps.

[Money]

Those sub 980 MB bombs have over 2.00 IN QPF in the cold sector 

[Geos]

#5, #8, and #10 would be epic around here.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

will auto update

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/00Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

That's a stronger low in CO. ^

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/00Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

south thus far

[bud2380]

yep coming in south so far vs the 12z run. 850 temps need to come down a bit though in my area anyway.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160127/00Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png

[bud2380]

SLP placement looks similar to 12z at 156 hours, but precip shield is significantly further south this run. SLP is weaker too.

[Grizzcoat]

From just looking at SLP and 850 temps- C and W IA -- as well as E NE should get creamed this run-- but have not seen precip maps.

[bud2380]

i really need the next couple frames to load on WXBell to see whats happening here.  Looks like it might be similar to GEM on snow placement.

[winterfreak]

Sounds like it hasn't changed much unfortunately.

[Geos]

Should be really good for Iowa and S WI.

[bud2380]

despite a bit of a shift south on SLP and the precip shield; overall the Euro didn't actually budge a ton on snow placement.  Just a small shift south.

 

http://i.imgur.com/SLvwDWx.png

[Geos]

It heads up into that high like the 18z run of the GFS.

 

The low track started out like the GFS in TX, but changed quite a bit afterwards.

[bud2380]

The snow band sets up more SW to NE this run vs the 12z run which was more WSW to ENE in orientation. As a result areas in NE & KS saw a shift south, but areas in MN & WI saw a shift north in snow placement.

[winterfreak]

If I miss that close ughhh.

[ToastedRavs]

The 0z GFS Cobb output for DSM gives 19.8" on 1.28" qpf.  here are the 0z Euro numbers to compare:

 

DSM:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.2    -1.0    1012      70      65    0.00     549     538    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.0    -2.2    1012      73      99    0.01     549     539    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   0.5    -2.5    1012      89      97    0.06     549     539    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -3.0    1008      87     100    0.08     546     540    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -0.9    -3.5     999      92      80    0.38     539     540    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -1.1    -3.5     996      93      51    0.17     528     531    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -4.1    -9.9     998      85      75    0.05     523     525    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -8.0   -15.1    1005      82      94    0.03     521     517

[Geos]

The snow band sets up more SW to NE this run vs the 12z run which was more WSW to ENE in orientation. As a result areas in NE & KS saw a shift south, but areas in MN & WI saw a shift north in snow placement.

 

I think I know why too. The 1st low over the Great Lakes wasn't very strong on the EURO, thus the heights didn't build down from Canada enough to cause a more WSW to ENE track.

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188
 

                                            00Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

WE

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.1    -3.6    1012      77     100    0.01     546     537    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -4.6    1011      89     100    0.08     545     536    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.0    -6.0    1004      91     100    0.24     539     536    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.3    -9.0    1003      91      95    0.57     530     527    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -4.1   -10.3    1005      88      99    0.18     526     523    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.1   -12.0    1011      81      95    0.07     526     518    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.7   -12.4    1015      73      81    0.01     530     518    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -8.4   -11.6    1021      69      33    0.00     534     518    

THU 00Z 04-FEB -10.0   -10.2    1024      78      51    0.00     537     519    
 
 
 

 

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444
 

                                            00Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   1.3    -3.9    1013      75      83    0.00     545     535    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.8    -5.6    1012      88     100    0.04     544     534    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.1    -6.6    1008      88      99    0.16     539     532    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.1    -8.8    1007      90     100    0.47     531     526    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.7   -10.7    1009      85     100    0.29     528     521    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.9   -12.1    1013      80      98    0.09     527     517    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.6   -11.9    1015      71      65    0.01     530     518    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -8.5   -11.2    1021      71      36    0.00     534     518    

THU 00Z 04-FEB -10.3    -9.9    1023      77      41    0.00     537     519    

T
 
 

 

 

[ToastedRavs]

0z EUro 

 

OMA:

MON 18Z 01-FEB   3.6    -2.4    1013      65      82    0.00     547     537    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.2    -3.4    1012      76      98    0.01     547     537    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.9    -3.8    1011      87      99    0.06     546     537    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.4    -4.8    1005      87      98    0.16     542     538    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.0    -8.6    1003      91      92    0.55     531     529    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -3.6    -9.9    1002      87      95    0.21     526     524    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -6.4   -12.6    1007      84     100    0.09     524     518    WED 12Z 03-FEB -10.4   -13.4    1013      78      88    0.04     527     517    WED 18Z 03-FEB -10.2   -11.3    1019      66      54    0.00     532     518    

LNK:

ON 18Z 01-FEB   3.7    -2.7    1013      64      97    0.00     547     537    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.1    -3.6    1012      77     100    0.01     546     537    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.5    -4.6    1011      89     100    0.08     545     536    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.0    -6.0    1004      91     100    0.24     539     536    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -3.3    -9.0    1003      91      95    0.57     530     527    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -4.1   -10.3    1005      88      99    0.18     526     523    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.1   -12.0    1011      81      95    0.07     526     518    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.7   -12.4    1015      73      81    0.01     530     518    

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI    LAT=  39.28 LON=  -94.75 ELE=  1027
 

                                            00Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

MON 12Z 01-FEB   1.8     1.7    1010      84      80    0.01     552     544    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   5.2     0.8    1011      75      86    0.03     552     544    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   5.0     1.1    1008      76      74    0.03     550     544    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   3.4     3.5    1006      88      83    0.04     550     545    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB   2.6     6.1     997      98      33    0.23     544     546    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB   7.9     1.2     993      82      33    0.04     531     537    

WED 00Z 03-FEB   1.8    -2.4     994      94      93    0.16     526     531    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -2.7   -10.5    1004      79      93    0.08     526     523    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -6.5   -13.8    1014      68      89    0.01     529     518    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -3.7   -13.5    1020      47      60    0.00     535     519    

THU 00Z 04-FEB  -4.9   -10.8    1024      57      47    0.00     538     519    
 
 
 

 

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807
 

                                            00Z JAN27

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -1.7    -5.7    1015      82      99    0.00     549     538    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -2.7    -4.2    1004      87      88    0.13     545     542    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -3.4    -4.7     992      90      93    0.41     534     540    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -4.4    -4.8     987      92      86    0.18     519     529    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -4.7   -12.5     992      75      99    0.06     516     522    

THU 00Z 04-FEB  -8.3   -17.9    1003      70      97    0.03     517     515    

THU 06Z 04-FEB -10.8   -20.2    1011      75      99    0.01     521     512    

THU 12Z 04-FEB -13.2   -16.5    1019      77      87    0.00     526     511    
 
 
 
 

 

 

[winterfreak]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI LAT= 39.28 LON= -94.75 ELE= 1027

 

00Z JAN27

2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500

© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

 

MON 12Z 01-FEB 1.8 1.7 1010 84 80 0.01 552 544

MON 18Z 01-FEB 5.2 0.8 1011 75 86 0.03 552 544

TUE 00Z 02-FEB 5.0 1.1 1008 76 74 0.03 550 544

TUE 06Z 02-FEB 3.4 3.5 1006 88 83 0.04 550 545

TUE 12Z 02-FEB 2.6 6.1 997 98 33 0.23 544 546

TUE 18Z 02-FEB 7.9 1.2 993 82 33 0.04 531 537

WED 00Z 03-FEB 1.8 -2.4 994 94 93 0.16 526 531

WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.7 -10.5 1004 79 93 0.08 526 523

WED 12Z 03-FEB -6.5 -13.8 1014 68 89 0.01 529 518

WED 18Z 03-FEB -3.7 -13.5 1020 47 60 0.00 535 519

THU 00Z 04-FEB -4.9 -10.8 1024 57 47 0.00 538 519

 

Not even close smh.

[Geos]

Look at that difference in the 500 mb pattern between the EURO and GFS.

 

 

[ToastedRavs]

Pretty comprehensive discussion on wide range of effects that could be felt from the NWS in DSM.  It would be interesting to see if it speeds up (unlikely) to refute their closing sentence about Caucus day!

 

BOTH MODELS BRING A LOT OF GULF MOISTURE UP WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL BE INTENSE WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...ON
THE ORDER OF 30-45 MPH EASY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL A
BIG QUESTION AND THE EURO HAS THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE STATE ON
TUESDAY. PTYPE COULD BE IN QUESTION INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND EAST BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOMEWHERE IN IOWA WILL GET A LOT OF
SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT IS EVEN TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH SNOW.
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY OFF THE CHARTS AND OF COURSE
THAT IMPACTS COBB OUTPUT AND OTHER PARAMETERS IN THE CALCULATION OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THUS I DO NOT BELIEVE THE FOOT AND A HALF AMOUNTS
GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING AT THIS POINT. THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM
HOWEVER AND WE WILL GET AMPLE SNOWFALL AND WIND...IT`S JUST A MATTER
OF WHERE AND WHEN. WITH THE SLOWER TRACK NOW THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG WIND...UNLESS THAT CHANGES WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL PROBABLY FALL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BUT IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH AND JUST EXACTLY WHERE...AND OF
COURSE THAT IS ASSUMING THAT THE MODELS DON`T TAKE THIS THING
FURTHER NORTH OR WEST. WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING BEFORE
FINALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
DESCRIBED ABOVE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE CAVEAT OF BEING TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL MISS CAUCUS GOERS.

[jcwxguy]

06z gfs

[Tornadobrah89]

Temps are looking colder and colder. I still expect this too move further south