GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Money]

Big changes on 18z GFS.

[gosaints]

Big changes on 18z GFS.

Way.left?

[Money]

986.9 in C/S KS at HR 159 

[Money]

Way.left?

 

I was more talking about timing of the system. Def. faster but it's stronger and has a stronger high pushing south. Going to be interesting.

[Geos]

The snow area is bigger I can see.

 

[Money]

1034 high coming down.

 

988.3 about .1 mb weaker compared to 18z but it's a bit east of 12z so far.

[Money]

21.4 so far in northern Neb

[winterfreak]

Looks like the same outcome though. Just too warm.

[hlcater]

that snowband is avoiding my house dang it.

[Geos]

It's almost the same track, riding the OK/KS border.

 

[hlcater]

I'm out of the game for this one.

[Money]

SD/NE/N.IA/MN/W WI does really well.

 

Max area of 26. 

[winterfreak]

GFS has been very consistent.

[gosaints]

I'm out of the game for this one.

Lol its 140 hours from developing

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160126/18Z/f186/24hkucherasnowconus.png

[Geos]

I think it is copying the solution from 18z yesterday. Not likely that it would turn that sharp into the high when there is a weakness in the high to the east.

[hlcater]

the GFS is EXTREMELY consistent which is bad news.

[WBadgersW]

I'm out of the game for this one.

Its a week away. I would be shocked if we don't see some sort of curve ball.

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160126/18Z/f192/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

One thing that's amazing is the GFS has shown 16-18 inches + in some areas with this system for like a week now. 

[WBadgersW]

Not very good at all. I'll wait for this weekend to judge though

[Money]

the GFS is EXTREMELY consistent which is bad news.

 

ITS 7 DAYS AWAY YET 

[Geos]

the GFS is EXTREMELY consistent which is bad news.

 

Too far out to make that call. 

I'll start getting worried if it is still the same at 120 hours.

[hlcater]

I know, and logic goes against my decision but I've got a bad feeling I'm gonna get the shaft with this storm.

[Money]

I know, and logic goes against my decision but I've got a bad feeling I'm gonna get the shaft with this storm.

 

ugh

[hlcater]

lol, i'm being really pessimistic aren't I.

[winterfreak]

He's worse than me.

[hlcater]

He's worse than me.

Wouldn't doubt it, I'm over here calling the shots way to early. 

[Geos]

Hopefully the EPO can go negative earlier or something.

[GDR]

Not looking good for eastern iowa

[Geos]

NAO looks to be 0.5 or so on February 1st. PNA about 0.3 or 0.4. Would like to see the NAO trend lower this week than forecast and be closer to 0 by next Monday.

[james1976]

Is it just me or are the Euro and GFS in good agreement right now?

[james1976]

DMX:
A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
PATTERN AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING INTO  
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PATH AT  
THIS TIME SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND FINALLY THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS  
OUT WITH THESE NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEMS TENDING TO SLOW DOWN SOME  
WITH TIME. OVERALL DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE FETCH OF  
MOISTURE ORIGINATING OFF THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH  
VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 WINDS  
OF AROUND 50 KTS WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 40-45 KTS...SO POTENTIAL  
FOR BLOWING SNOW THERE INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY DETAILS  
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TRACK...TIMING...AND PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED  
THROUGH THE COMING DAYS INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL TO BE A  
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH  
CHANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY  
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.  

[Tornadobrah89]

Kc news is saying this storm is going to shift way south. I'm pretty sure it will too because winter storms tend to do so. It's always colder on the back end of these storms than forecasted. I think this could shift as far south as central Missouri and into the ozarks

[Geos]

Is it just me or are the Euro and GFS in good agreement right now?

 

Never thought I'd read that line, haha.

 

If it is, it might get its heart broken with the way the EURO has been.

[GDR]

 

Kc news is saying this storm is going to shift way south. I'm pretty sure it will too because winter storms tend to do so. It's always colder on the back end of these storms than forecasted. I think this could shift as far south as central Missouri and into the ozarks[/quote I'm thinking KC to Chicago is in a prime spot.

[Geos]

 

Kc news is saying this storm is going to shift way south. I'm pretty sure it will too because winter storms tend to do so. It's always colder on the back end of these storms than forecasted. I think this could shift as far south as central Missouri and into the ozarks[/quote I'm thinking KC to Chicago is in a prime spot.

 

What station?

 

Found it. Channel 41

 

He's the LRC guy. Ok, I'll ride that call.

[Tom]

Back in the saddle as I have been out all afternoon.  I just finished up doing some digging and focusing in on where the GFS/EURO/GGEM see the Pacific energy hitiing the coast of Cali.  More importantly, where do these models then track this vorticity.  Ok, here we go...

 

I'll start with the Euro...the model is showing the energy hitting just NE of Sacramento, CA and then diving down towards PHX/ABQ.  What happens after that is sorta odd.  HP is already sinking south out of Canada and the path of least resistance would be to track due east and then NE once near the Ozarks.  However, the model begins to cut NE just outside of NM/TX Panhandle/OK border....it's very odd a system would do so at this time of year.

 

Now, onto the GGEM.  The models has the PAC energy hitting near Sacramento, CA (just south of the Euro's placement), which then rounds the base of the trough through PHX/ABQ and ejects this wave due east just south of AMA and then towards SE OK...which then hooks up towards the lower lakes.  The GGEM is obviously taking the path of least resistance as it is being suppressed by the rising heights near the Dakotas (makes sense).

 

Finally, we have the GFS.  The model also agrees targeting near Sacramento, CA, but about 12 hours slower...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012612/gfs_z500_vort_wus_24.png

 

The BIG discrepancy I see with the GFS is it bowling balls the energy due east into the central Rockies and does not dig the energy into AZ/NM (which does not fit with the LRC).  You can see it has the energy then in SE CO...

.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012612/gfs_z500_vort_wus_29.png

 

This is a HUGE difference where ultimately the storm will track.  So we have the EURO/GGEM agreeing on the track of the energy in the west/southwest but differ on where the energy ejects once it leaves the state of NM.  Its prob a good reason why the 12z EPS mean MSLP has many members south of AMA, then into SE OK, then tracking towards S MO/N AR (btw, just like the GGEM!).  Euro op run is much farther NW.  So you can see the EPS agreeing with the 12z GGEM operational run quite a bit.  Logic tells me the Euro will shift SE with it's track and the GGEM will stay put.  Unless the EPS members dramatically shift over the coming few days.  The 12z Euro has SLP right over KC, about 150+ mi NW of its ensemble mean at 18z Feb 2nd.  Now you know why I'm sitting here scratching my head.

 

12z GGEM MSLP is attached below taking it right through S IL/S IN towards N OH.

 

Hope this helps or doesn't, but I know one thing for certain, this is going to be a phenomenal storm whoever gets underneath the jackpot!

 

 

[clintbeed1993]

A Colorado Low is not going to shift clear into Oklahoma/Arkansas unless 1.  There is a huge powerful high pressing down or 2. A large Arctic Airmass to push it south.  The Arctic Air is definitely out, so that just leaves the High.  The High would have to be very very strong and pretty much in South Dakota/Northern Nebraska.

[Tom]

A Colorado Low is not going to shift clear into Oklahoma/Arkansas unless 1.  There is a huge powerful high pressing down or 2. A large Arctic Airmass to push it south.  The Arctic Air is definitely out, so that just leaves the High.  The High would have to be very very strong and pretty much in South Dakota/Northern Nebraska.

Only the GFS is showing a CO LOW, both 12z EPS/GGEM show a Panhandle Hook type of storm.  12z Euro Op does have a similar looking CO low.  Ultimately, are you going to believe the operational runs or the ensembles.  That is the idea here.