January 2014 in the PNW

[Guest Monty67]

I wonder what Jim is wearing right now.

 

Its kind of funny that the calendar in the Video is December 2008

 

Now we know what Jim is doing during the daytime.

[Phil]

Why don't you post info like this in the eastern forum?

Sorry, I can stop with the OT posts if necessary.

 

I guess it's just because I'd be talking to myself over there, and no one wants to listen to my advice on how to grow this community into an American-Wx caliber population.

[TT-SEA]

I know what you mean about the lack of posters there.  I like hearing about extremes, no matter where they are. 

 

Me too.

[Gradient Keeper]

lol

[East Dubzz]

I am a Midwesterner that follows this board quite often. You guys really get this going and have a lot of discussion, even though quite frankly your weather sucks for you right now. I can't even imagine what this forum would be like if you guys have a huge storm on the horizon.

[brody]

I can't even imagine what this forum would be like if you guys have a huge storm on the horizon.

Refer to Dec 2008 and you'll know what it's like

[brody]

Here comes the rain again

[Gradient Keeper]

Yuck... thankfully it's only the 18z, but yeah if 00z mirrors this.... some people are going to have a fit or temper tantrum. Winter cancel clearly. Obviously.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[BLI snowman]

Yuck... thankfully it's only the 18z, but yeah if 00z mirrors this.... some people are going to have a fit or temper tantrum. Winter cancel clearly. Obviously.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Eh, the ensemble mean stays below freezing the entire time.

 

People are just going through their weenie menstrual cycles right now with this. The worst model runs have still shown an extended period of cool weather and offshore flow, with a worst case scenario being a snow threat or two. Another long lived arctic airmass has always been a long shot, but extended cold anomalies are a very good bet and with it will come snow threats. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Eh, the ensemble mean stays below freezing the entire time.

 

People are just going through their weenie menstrual cycles right now with this. The worst model runs have still shown an extended period of cool weather and offshore flow, with a worst case scenario being a snow threat or two. Another long lived arctic airmass has always been a long shot, but extended cold anomalies are a very good bet and with it will come snow threats. 

Most of what I said was sarcasm, but if you want arctic cold/snow, those ensembles aren't going to cut the ketchup. At least the ensembles that matter 12z GFS/EURO look good especially height anomaly placement.

[TT-SEA]

Eh, the ensemble mean stays below freezing the entire time.

 

People are just going through their weenie menstrual cycles right now with this. The worst model runs have still shown an extended period of cool weather and offshore flow, with a worst case scenario being a snow threat or two. Another long lived arctic airmass has always been a long shot, but extended cold anomalies are a very good bet and with it will come snow threats. 

 

Actually... some of the models (including the ECMWF) have hinted at a perpetual warm front rain/drizzle scenario for next week.    Not exactly crisp and clear with offshore flow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ultimately as long as we can build our badly needed mountain snow pack I will be okay with that. I mean, if we can't get cold/snow down to the low lands.

[Jesse]

The 18z and 18z ensemble mean sucked. There were still plenty of cold members, though.

[Snow]

There is no question that in the long run the cold air slides east. The best we can hope for is cold enough temps where a L pulls offshore winds to produce an overrunning event where the snow sticks around for atleast a day or so. Getting cold air is good and all but you really need something to pull the cold winds from the east side.

 

Feb 1993: 

 

Feb 1995: 

[Gradient Keeper]

The 18z and 18z ensemble mean sucked. There were still plenty of cold members, though.

Fairly understandable level of negativity, but it is the 18z after all.

[Gradient Keeper]

There is no question that in the long run the cold air slides east. The best we can hope for is cold enough temps where a L pulls offshore winds to produce an overrunning event where the snow sticks around for atleast a day or so. Getting cold air is good and all but you really need something to pull the cold winds from the east side.

 

Feb 1993: 

 

Feb 1995: 

Jim Little! Rich Johnson! Bill Keneeley! FTW!

[TT-SEA]

Jim Little! Rich Johnson! Bill Keneeley! FTW!

 

Man that bought back memories of watching those guys in the 90s.

[Phil]

Apparently this is Florida. Multiple car crashes (at least 3 in this pic) and snow-covered freeways..

 

EDIT: Atlanta GA

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-3375-0-18606100-1390958963.jpg

[brody]

Apparently this is Florida. Multiple car crashes and snow-covered freeways..

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-3375-0-18606100-1390958963.jpg

See the GDOT tag at the bottom of the image?

 

This is a screen grab of a Georgia DOT cam near Atlanta 

[Phil]

See the GDOT tag at the bottom of the image?

 

This is a screen grab of a Georgia DOT cam near Atlanta

Ahh ok thanks. My friend told me it was Tallahassee.

[brody]

Ahh ok thanks. My friend told me it was Tallahassee.

That is definitely NOT Tallahassee

[Parksvillewx]

CFS flopped back to cold again. Weird..it never does that..

 

[Phil]

That is definitely NOT Tallahassee

You've been there? Otherwise I want your night vision goggles.

[brody]

You've been there? Otherwise I want your night vision goggles.

Yes I have, I lived in Tally for 5 years

[AnthonyC]

I'm about to throw in the towel for this Winter.  Here we're at the last week of January after one of the driest/warmest Januarys I can remember, and models STILL DON'T look good for the PNW.  This Winter has just been very odd...and super frustrating.

[Gradient Keeper]

Where as a lot of your post is understandable, you do realize you kind of ventured over [weenie] territory as well with this post. I don't know if Mets can be labeled as such though. No offense of course.

 

DELETE THIS IF YOU CAN. I FORGOT TO CLICK  'QUOTE'

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm about to throw in the towel for this Winter.  Here we're at the last week of January after one of the driest/warmest Januarys I can remember, and models STILL DON'T look good for the PNW.  This Winter has just been very odd...and super frustrating.

Where as a lot of you said here is understandable, you do realize you kind of ventured over [weenie] territory as well with this post. I don't know if Mets can be labeled as such though. No offense of course.

[BLI snowman]

Actually... some of the models (including the ECMWF) have hinted at a perpetual warm front rain/drizzle scenario for next week.    Not exactly crisp and clear with offshore flow.

Wrong.The mediocre 12z Euro shows plenty of offshore flow, just not as cold as we would want.

[TT-SEA]

Wrong.The mediocre 12z Euro shows plenty of offshore flow, just not as cold as we would want.

 

 

You have not looked at the ECMWF precip maps heading into next week.    

 

Here is Tuesday... warm front drizzle.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

[brody]

You have not looked at the ECMWF precip maps... heading into next week.    

 

Here is Tuesday... warm front drizzle.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

A week out and you're concerned about drizzle... who cares about drizzle, I think more folks are worried about whether or not we get another albeit mediocre shot of snow or cold or both.

 

I myself am more worried about the piss poor lack of snow in our Mts.

 

Driving I-90 back from Snoqualmie last Saturday it was depressing to see the snowline basically at the very tops of the peaks leading up to Snoqualmie.

[TT-SEA]

A week out and you're concerned about drizzle... who cares about drizzle, I think more folks are worried about whether or not we get another albeit mediocre shot of snow or cold or both.

 

I myself am more worried about the piss poor lack of snow in our Mts.

 

Driving I-90 back from Snoqualmie last Saturday it was depressing to see the snowline basically at the very tops of the peaks leading up to Snoqualmie.

 

 

I am not frickin worried about drizzle.

 

Follow the d*mn conversation.

 

He said the ECMWF showed cool offshore flow and I said the detailed maps don't actually show that... but instead show warm front precip.

[brody]

I am not frickin worried about drizzle.

 

Follow the d*mn conversation.

 

He said the ECMWF showed cool offshore flow and I said the detailed maps don't actually show that... but instead show warm front precip.

Ok, who gives a though...talking about minor details when none of the models can grasp a straw let alone a marginal pattern is useless.

[Gradient Keeper]

D**n. There is a lot of bickering on here today. Tim vs Jesse, Brennan vs Tim, Tim vs Brody, BLI Snowman vs Tim, Jesse vs Tim, Jesse vs WestCoastexpat, etc. etc. I sense if 00z runs tonight(including Ensembles) are bad tonight that there could be fights if not all out brawls. Relax. RELAX. Not me of course everyone is a huge fan of mine. I'm cool

[brody]

D**n. There is a lot of bickering on here today. Tim vs Jesse, Brennan vs Tim, Tim vs Brody, BLI Snowman vs Tim, Jesse vs Tim, Jesse vs WestCoastexpat, etc. etc. I sense if 00z runs tonight(including Ensembles) are bad tonight that there could be fights if not all out brawls. Relax. RELAX. Not me of course everyone is a huge fan of mine. I'm cool

Eat Me

[TT-SEA]

D**n. There is a lot of bickering on here today. Tim vs Jesse, Brennan vs Tim, Tim vs Brody, BLI Snowman vs Tim, Jesse vs Tim, Jesse vs WestCoastexpat, etc. etc. I sense if 00z runs tonight(including Ensembles) are bad tonight that there could be fights if not all out brawls. Relax. RELAX. Not me of course everyone is a huge fan of mine. I'm cool

 

There is no Brennan vs Tim... you just made that up.    And I just made one comment to Brody.     And I showed a map to Justin.     

[brody]

There is no Brennan vs Tim... you just made that up.    And I just made one comment to Brody.     And I showed a map to Justin.     

He ( Tim ) does have a point 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is about to take the stage!

[BLI snowman]

You have not looked at the ECMWF precip maps heading into next week.    

 

Here is Tuesday... warm front drizzle.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/qno8o9k4h/Untitled.jpg

 

Yep, it also shows precip around Bakersfield with that big storm. Not going to happen, though.

[Jesse]

36 degree rain out here.

[TT-SEA]

Yep, it also shows precip around Bakersfield with that big storm. Not going to happen, though.

 

 

What?

 

If we end up on the eastern side of a flat ridge next week like the ECMWF shows then it will be a cloudy, drippy week and not a cool, clear week.

 

There is nothing shown down to Bakersfield on that map.    It barely shows rain to Crescent City.