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Discussion on long term effects of Honga Tunga volcanic eruption


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Presumably most of you are aware of the volcanic eruption of Hunga Tonga a few months back. New research has shown that this volcano spewed an enormous amount of water vapor into the stratosphere.  See Here. Apparently, the amount of water equaled about 10% of what was already up there. Water vapor in the stratosphere is known to warm the troposphere so there are discussions that this could induce some short term global warming for a few years, the opposite of what typically happens with volcanic eruptions. There is already satellite evidence suggesting that this is occurring.

To take it a step further, I'm thinking about how it could effect global circulation next winter. I believe it is the case (Phil would know for sure) that a colder stratosphere should accompany a stronger polar vortex. So my question is, will this stronger polar vortex occur and how will it modify the la nina base state this year? Curious if anybody has any thoughts. 

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10 hours ago, Black Hole said:

@Philwhat do you think? 

I’m not sure tbh. Can envision a slew of potential outcomes.

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As I mentioned in the main thread, we need to consider that a huge amount of salt was pumped into the atmosphere with the blast as well.  Salt is known to cause atmospheric cooling.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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On 9/1/2022 at 10:06 PM, snow_wizard said:

As I mentioned in the main thread, we need to consider that a huge amount of salt was pumped into the atmosphere with the blast as well.  Salt is known to cause atmospheric cooling.

Hadn't heard anything about this. Anything else you can share? 

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On 9/1/2022 at 10:06 PM, snow_wizard said:

As I mentioned in the main thread, we need to consider that a huge amount of salt was pumped into the atmosphere with the blast as well.  Salt is known to cause atmospheric cooling.

The southern hemisphere has seen record setting cold stratospheric temperatures during their winter following the Tonga eruption.    This is the opposite of what happened after Pinatubo eruption when there was significant stratospheric warming.  Stratospheric cooling is typically associated with surface warming and vice versa.  

Right now we are already seeing stratospheric conditions that are completely opposite of a traditional SO2 volcanic event like Pinatubo.   It appears that the massive amount of water vapor injected into the atmosphere is overwhelming any other influences that could make it behave like a Pinatubo event with stratospheric warming and surface cooling.  

Here is a view of the anomalous stratospheric cooling currently in the southern hemisphere...

stratosphere-polar-vortex-cold-air-anomaly-latest-august-2022-analysis.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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