East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Phil]

Third consecutive year with 95-100 degree weather in September..at least we'll start seeing more Canadian air in October. Impossible to keep cooler weather at bay for much longer.

[UnionWX]

Dustbowl out there. Really dry out there the last few months, under a drought watch with moderate deought conditions.

 

Lawn looks ugly and is a mess.

[Phil]

September always sucks here, often times much worse than June (especially in terms of humidity). Expect numerous 90+ days through the first 2-3 weeks of the month. Last year we were in the mid/upper 90s until the end of week3.

 

We typically don't lose the heat/humidity until October, and that transition can sometimes be very quick. In years like 2013, literally one cold front was all that separated summer from winter...heat raging until late September, snowing by early November.

See, it never fails. Lol.

 

Station closest to me:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/180BE5B9-A101-450A-B883-04B6405564AC_zpsalvr9ax7.png

 

DCA

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/97D76746-18EA-4DD9-9822-DEBAE779CD43_zpsgr2peamh.png

[Andie]

We had a front come through. Thunder and rain this morning. About a 1/4".

Temps today have been nice.

High 80 currently 75

Heading for a Low of 62.

 

I'm tempted to get up and go outside at 5am just to remember what cool feels like !

This is great, I can sense Fall !

 

Sorry 'bout the heat Phil.

And the Feels like 106 really Blows!

[Phil]

Looking forward to reduced humidity over the next several days..has been a nasty stretch. At 730pm, it was still 88/78 and stagnant..walked out of the grocery store and was soaked by the time I reached my car.

[Phil]

Cold front made it through..dewpoint down from 78 to 67 under a refreshing NW breeze..

[Phil]

Beautiful today, 83/54 with a deep blue sky. Looks like tomorrow will be just as nice.

 

Brief spikes of heat/humidity are still probable through the upcoming 2 weeks, however, it seems that the truly sustained heat might be over. The NATL/Bermuda high is beginning its seasonal retraction southwestward, and cold fronts are finally returning with more regularity.

 

Hopefully, we'll be done with 70+ dewpoints by either late September or early October, and will start seeing frosts shortly thereafter start killing the weeds and mosquitos.

[UnionWX]

Gusted to 50 + mph earlier. Some trees down just to my north. High of 93 today, another record shattered.

[Phil]

No thunderstorms here, just a dry 95 degree afternoon. We need rain badly too. Haven't seen the trees this stressed since 2012.

 

Also, this was probably the second-lamest severe weather season I've ever experienced, just behind 2011..though at least we had hurricane Irene to spice things up then.

[Phil]

Perfection today, 73/57 @ noon! Almost fell to my knees and cried tears of joy when I stepped outside.

[UnionWX]

No thunderstorms here, just a dry 95 degree afternoon. We need rain badly too. Haven't seen the trees this stressed since 2012.

 

Also, this was probably the second-lamest severe weather season I've ever experienced, just behind 2011..though at least we had hurricane Irene to spice things up then.

Pictures I took yesterday before the "dust" storm set in. Trees are extremely stressed and dropping their leaves.

 

http://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_09/20160914_172422.thumb.jpg.d17c0ec4224559e3049bc843fc439ac9.jpg

 

http://www.usa-wx.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_09/20160914_172401.thumb.jpg.40d54e8885e4e60bae16467212e4edda.jpg

[Phil]

Haha, dust storm analogy is legit. Next gust front that blows through here will probably set off a haboob.

[Andie]

NOAA has updated their fall prognostications. It would appear La Nada will reign supreme. No ones more disappointed than me as I was hoping for that wet cold winter here. The rain would be welcome. So, with that here's the latest. >_

Texas does not need a return of La Drought !

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

 

[UnionWX]

Lawn earlier today. Restrictions are up here. EURO and GFS are wet for Sunday.

 

[Phil]

Any winter ideas yet?

Starting to get a better idea now, but I personally will know a lot more in about 4 weeks. I believe this winter should easily finish colder than last winter, though considering last winter was the warmest all-time in many places, that won't be a very difficult task to accomplish.

 

I'm looking most closely at 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985-86, 1978/79, 1967-68, and 1966/67 as potential seasonal analogs. Obviously, there are some notable differences amongst these years, both in terms of solar forcing/strat dynamics, and tropical forcing/ENSO/equator-pole exchanges of mass/momentum/AAM//etc. So, the details of how this season's pattern evolves w/ time isn't exactly clear, in my opinion..

 

If I had to guess as to the nature of this winter, I'd go with an "obnoxiously variable" pattern, defined by a persistent battle between heavy, repetitive shots of Arctic air centered over the Plains/Midwest (vodka cold, as some folks call it) and the climatological SW Atlantic high (SE ridge), which will try to keep the coldest airmasses centered a few hundred miles to our west.

 

The dominant storm track often runs, or "cuts" to our west in years like this (between the Appalachian Mountains and the Great Lakes, generally speaking) before secondary surface lows redevelop, or "jump" to the coast or just offshore, typically along the NYC/Boston corridor. This often leads to frequent temperature extremes on a weekly/subweekly timescale in the Middle Atlantic region.

 

For example, with a typical "cutter" (a name we give westward running systems), we'll experience relatively mild S/SW flow and/or moderate rain as we enter the warm sector of the storm, followed by a sharp rush of polar air along/behind cold front, which will either arrive "respectfully" (the classic dry W/NW wind gusts, usually ~40-50mph, or "obnoxiously" (line of low-topped convection with howling winds developing along and/or behind the line, often at/above 60mph, typical of sharp airmass/pressure gradients). The latter scenario has been somewhat less frequent in recent years, but would happen very frequently in the pre-2010 years, so we're probably going to start experiencing those frontal passages sometime soon.

 

So, to summarize, it's not uncommon to experience few days in the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of a system with mild rain, followed by a few days in the upper teens/low 20s behind the cold front, often with heavy winds out of the W/NW and snow squalls. In fact, if anything, it's quite typical in the long run.

 

Regarding snowfall, years like this are often very dynamic locally, however, inland locations are heavily favored in the snowfall department w/ the frequent "Miller B" storm track...basically anywhere from the Appalachians, into a corridor from Winchester, VA, to Hagerstown, MD, to State College, PA, to the northern NYC suburbs, into most of New England will usually jackpot on snowfall. Meanwhile, the I95 corridor will usually experience a snow-to-ice-to-rain (or just snow-to-ice) progression, under the influence of CAD (cold air damming, which is essentially the "trapping" of low level cold air east of the mountains, leading to a temperature inversion as temperatures aloft warm easily relative to those at the surface). These events typically start with approximately 1-4" of snowfall, followed by a transition to sleet/freezing rain as temperatures aloft warm above freezing. About half of the time, there will be an eventual flip to rain, or the event will finish in the firm of freezing rain..SE of I95, the flip to rain is easier/more common, while areas to the N/W of I/95 and/or the "Fall Line" will often have a hard time flipping to rain..the metro areas are usually a toss-up.

 

Occasionally, clippers will dive down out of Canada, dropping a general 1-3" of powder across the area. Sometimes, secondary systems will develop along the frontal boundary of a "cutter" (these fronts often stall out in the deep S/SE US, and will ride NE into the region, dropping 2-6" of snow or a wintry mix, often on a narrow SW/NE swath).

 

Or sometimes, on a relatively infrequent basis, we score a true nor'easter that tracks to our south, which can easily dump

12"+ throughout the region. This usually requires strong high latitude blocking (NAO/EPO et al) or a southward displaced, perfectly oriented Hudson Bay vortex (as we observed in both 2013/14 and 1995/96, for example).

 

So, that's a generally summary of where I'm putting my expectations this winter. Variable temperatures with frequent mild spikes, recurring Arctic blasts of a transient nature, and a largely unfavorable storm track for all-snow events. Nothing close to confident about this yet, however.

[Andie]

They've revised our forecast for next week from mid 80's to mid 90's.  No rain possibilities till next Sunday. 

Seems they messed up that forecast !

Wednesday will deliver temp of 96*.  It's summer again.

[Phil]

Looks like a switch is flipped on the 26th, from mid to upper 80s to 70s and 60s. Still warm, but comfortable.

Yeah, seasonal changes in the hemispheric circulation(s)/wavetrain(s) are just beginning now. If the upcoming late September/early October pattern (classic upstream initiating wave-2 w/ dual anticyclonic breakers) were to occur in November or later, we'd be sitting in the freezer, 2014 style, with frequent snow chances.

 

In September, it just amounts to lolz. We're usually game by mid/late October, sometimes earlier.

[weatherfan2012]

Starting to get a better idea now, but I personally will know a lot more in about 4 weeks. I believe this winter should easily finish colder than last winter, though considering last winter was the warmest all-time in many places, that won't be a very difficult task to accomplish.

I'm looking most closely at 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985-86, 1978/79, 1967-68, and 1966/67 as potential seasonal analogs. Obviously, there are some notable differences amongst these years, both in terms of solar forcing/strat dynamics, and tropical forcing/ENSO/equator-pole exchanges of mass/momentum/AAM//etc. So, the details of how this season's pattern evolves w/ time isn't exactly clear, in my opinion..

If I had to guess as to the nature of this winter, I'd go with an "obnoxiously variable" pattern, defined by a persistent battle between heavy, repetitive shots of Arctic air centered over the Plains/Midwest (vodka cold, as some folks call it) and the climatological SW Atlantic high (SE ridge), which will try to keep the coldest airmasses centered a few hundred miles to our west.

The dominant storm track often runs, or "cuts" to our west in years like this (between the Appalachian Mountains and the Great Lakes, generally speaking) before secondary surface lows redevelop, or "jump" to the coast or just offshore, typically along the NYC/Boston corridor. This often leads to frequent temperature extremes on a weekly/subweekly timescale in the Middle Atlantic region.

For example, with a typical "cutter" (a name we give westward running systems), we'll experience relatively mild S/SW flow and/or moderate rain as we enter the warm sector of the storm, followed by a sharp rush of polar air along/behind cold front, which will either arrive "respectfully" (the classic dry W/NW wind gusts, usually ~40-50mph, or "obnoxiously" (line of low-topped convection with howling winds developing along and/or behind the line, often at/above 60mph, typical of sharp airmass/pressure gradients). The latter scenario has been somewhat less frequent in recent years, but would happen very frequently in the pre-2010 years, so we're probably going to start experiencing those frontal passages sometime soon.

So, to summarize, it's not uncommon to experience few days in the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of a system with mild rain, followed by a few days in the upper teens/low 20s behind the cold front, often with heavy winds out of the W/NW and snow squalls. In fact, if anything, it's quite typical in the long run.

Regarding snowfall, years like this are often very dynamic locally, however, inland locations are heavily favored in the snowfall department w/ the frequent "Miller B" storm track...basically anywhere from the Appalachians, into a corridor from Winchester, VA, to Hagerstown, MD, to State College, PA, to the northern NYC suburbs, into most of New England will usually jackpot on snowfall. Meanwhile, the I95 corridor will usually experience a snow-to-ice-to-rain (or just snow-to-ice) progression, under the influence of CAD (cold air damming, which is essentially the "trapping" of low level cold air east of the mountains, leading to a temperature inversion as temperatures aloft warm easily relative to those at the surface). These events typically start with approximately 1-4" of snowfall, followed by a transition to sleet/freezing rain as temperatures aloft warm above freezing. About half of the time, there will be an eventual flip to rain, or the event will finish in the firm of freezing rain..SE of I95, the flip to rain is easier/more common, while areas to the N/W of I/95 and/or the "Fall Line" will often have a hard time flipping to rain..the metro areas are usually a toss-up.

Occasionally, clippers will dive down out of Canada, dropping a general 1-3" of powder across the area. Sometimes, secondary systems will develop along the frontal boundary of a "cutter" (these fronts often stall out in the deep S/SE US, and will ride NE into the region, dropping 2-6" of snow or a wintry mix, often on a narrow SW/NE swath).

Or sometimes, on a relatively infrequent basis, we score a true nor'easter that tracks to our south, which can easily dump

12"+ throughout the region. This usually requires strong high latitude blocking (NAO/EPO et al) or a southward displaced, perfectly oriented Hudson Bay vortex (as we observed in both 2013/14 and 1995/96, for example).

So, that's a generally summary of where I'm putting my expectations this winter. Variable temperatures with frequent mild spikes, recurring Arctic blasts of a transient nature, and a largely unfavorable storm track for all-snow events. Nothing close to confident about this yet, however.

and if indeed we are heading into a deep solar minimum doing the next couple cycles we better start getting use to nation wild cold to possibly severe winters.cycles 25 and 26 are going to be very interesting to follow to see how low the cycles go and the climate impacts.

[Phil]

I finally connected my personal weather station to Wunderground. Everything is up and running, except for the fact they mislocated it approximately 2 miles N/NW. I'll see what I can do about that.

 

My anemometer is kind of surrounded by large tulip poplar trees, but I situated it ~50ft off the ground to hopefully compensate for some of that.

 

Link: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDBETHE56#history

[Phil]

Humidity is back this morning, currently 75.5/71, expecting mid/upper 80s this afternoon, before clouds move in ahead of the front.

 

Speaking of which, looks like we finally have a chance at some meaningful rainfall tonight. Still mostly in convection season, but at least widespread stratiform rains are within the realm of possibility now.

[Phil]

Managed 0.34" of plain stratiform rain. Not nearly enough, but at least it's something.

 

70.6/70 and gloomy.

[Phil]

Uber long range GFS is sexy looking. Strong EPO/PNA block funnels a polar airmass into the Central/Eastern US.

 

Let's pull this one in. We've been sitting under a ridge since the 4th of July. Time for a change.

[Phil]

We're on pace for the lowest Atlantic ACE in recorded history.

 

Something's changed, that's for sure.

[Phil]

Slowly starting to feel like autumn outside.

 

Mornings are becoming noticeably cooler and hazier, the noisy songs of cicadas, katydids and robust-coneheads have been replaced with the relaxing songs of crickets, and the dominant wind direction has shifted from the S/SW to the E/NE, ushering in less-polluted airmasses off the ocean, hence deeper blue skies and fresh smelling air. Oh, and dewpoints/heat indices are generally below 70/90, respectively.

 

About 4-5 weeks from now, dewpoints will generally average at/below 55 degrees, morning lows will frequently fall into the 30s/40s, the dominant wind direction will shift from the E/NE to the NW, fall color will be at its seasonal peak, pumpkins and apple cider will be making the rounds, and prolonged cloudy/rainy stretches will become more common along with stronger frontal passages from the west.

[OKwx2k4]

We're on pace for the lowest Atlantic ACE in recorded history.

 

Something's changed, that's for sure.

I have read the Atlantic ACE at 48 which is only good for 14th lowest at this time with a good bit of season still left to go. Is that not correct?

[Phil]

I have read the Atlantic ACE at 48 which is only good for 14th lowest at this time with a good bit of season still left to go. Is that not correct?

You're right, should have said lowest ACE of any year to obtain climatological average by seasons end.

[OKwx2k4]

You're right, should have said lowest ACE of any year to obtain climatological average by seasons end.

Ok. I see what you mean there. I was only curious about that because there have been some very interesting winter seasons that have followed ridiculously low ACE years. It's going to very hard to make it out of the very low ACE category.

[Phil]

Dropped to a comfortable 58.3F this morning w/ a light fog.

 

Already 80.4F as of 11:50AM, however. Hoping this ridge regime will break down sometime soon..quite boring.

[Phil]

Looks like DCA hit 90F today, for #58 on the year. Hopefully we can stop the tally right here.

 

High was 87.7 degrees here. Cold front should arrive overnight tonight, so probably won't radiate well as CAA will probably keep winds elevated.

[Andie]

88*and 55% humidity. Feels nice actually.

 

We're heading for 74*tonight as a front will push through and give us an inch of rain over 48 hrs and temp highs on Monday and Tues at 72 and 78 respectively. With lows at 58 and 60. Amazing. Suddenly Fall is here. Very sweet.

 

We'll slowly climb to 90* by next Monday, but Fall is here. Nice breeze out tonight too at 12 mph with gusts to 24 mph.

I'll take a year of this, thanks.

[Phil]

Nice day. High of 72.1/66 @ 11:29AM, on a nice N/NE breeze.

 

Looking at mid/upper 50s tonight.

[Andie]

Quite a lightning display going on southeast of me. The southern sky is very active tonight.

The front will move through here tomorrow afternoon late. Should bring us .80" rain.

 

 

 

[Phil]

Temperature has dropped to 60.5 degrees as of 11:05pm. Nice.

 

I'm thinking we easily reach the low/mid 50s tonight.

[Phil]

Made it to 51.9 this morning at 738AM. Feels wonderful to walk outside into crisp, fall air.

 

Already down to 56.6 as of 11pm, so we might drop into the upper 40s tonight.

[Phil]

Clouds moved in and kept us warm. Bottomed out at 54.8.

 

Overcast skies w/ occasional rainfall will persist all week, well into next weekend, not including the tropical trouble. Looks like the transition into autumn has begun.

[Phil]

Some of these model runs are getting tantalizingly close to something exciting w/ soon-to-be Matthew. Hoping for a Hazel redux.

[Phil]

Even before Matthew's potential arrival, we're looking at a solid dose of rainfall this week. Looks like a general 4-6" in the DC metro area.

 

We honestly need everything we can get.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2D21D000-004A-4D00-827C-729F12856710_zpss8n0g1xy.jpg

[Phil]

Well, LWX is going all-in here:

 

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected. Localized amounts up to a foot of rain are possible... including along the eastern slopes of the northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountain in Maryland.

[Phil]

Lightning from all directions here, heavy stuff will be here in a few hours. Winds are gusting pretty good from the east..sucks that my anemometer is blocked by trees from that direction.

[Phil]

Underperformer here so far, maybe 1.4" since yesterday morning. Some nice thunder last night at least.