OKwx2k4 Posted August 19, 2016 Report Share Posted August 19, 2016 Right at .5 is where most in the central US want it. That will be just fine. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 We're almost playing with a stacked deck for cold all winter if the N PAC sst profiles continue to evolve through October in the way that they have over the last few weeks. After some further reading and investigating, 1978 is my leading analog year. I'm afraid to say that too boldly at this time but it looks pretty legit. Simply put, the Blob is back. Also, my post above from several days ago was supposed to be -.5 in case anyone noticed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 We're almost playing with a stacked deck for cold all winter if the N PAC sst profiles continue to evolve through October in the way that they have over the last few weeks. After some further reading and investigating, 1978 is my leading analog year. I'm afraid to say that too boldly at this time but it looks pretty legit. Simply put, the Blob is back. Also, my post above from several days ago was supposed to be -.5 in case anyone noticed.Every long range model is suggesting the NE PAC ridge to build in and hold throughout the month of September. The anomalies are on fire with +5C waters bubbling up in the NE PAC. The Blob is back, and its showing some serious strength. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Meanwhile, Nina-like conditions are holding together with a favorable SOI and trades, looks to me like the modiki Nina is not going away. All ENSO regions are cooling off and expected to continue. I wonder if we hit -1C for the 3.4/3 regions next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 I wonder if we hit -1C for the 3.4/3 regions next month.I suppose it could be possible but I'd really like for it not to. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2016 The latest CPC weekly ENSO update...cooler waters continue to shift west...no major changes, it appears the continuation of a La Nina still on schedule. The coolest of subsurface waters still remain in the central Pacific. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif' http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif The CFSv2 showing the central Pacific warming during the month of September. I'm not sure what to think of that ATM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016082818/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_1.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2016 Not much change in the ENSO conditions. Holding pretty steady. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif' Central Pacific waters are the coolest and focusing near 150W... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif'' http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2016 SST Anomalies in ENSO regions 3.4/3/4 have been oscillating back and forth in a clear range. Wonder if it breaks lower as we head into Autumn. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png Edit: The central pacific La Nina is clearly depicted below. Interestingly, it's placed directly south of the Blob in the N PAC. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Here is the latest ENSO update from the ECMWF...showing no NINA...more like a La Nada... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Latest NMME forecast...signing the same tune... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Latest NMME forecast...signing the same tune... Wow Tom. If the cold shows up as indicated, that should be GOLD for the S. Lakes & OHV track. This feels like "that 70's show" in the winter wx dept. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 1978 here we come! :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 1978 here we come! :-)I was thinking the same thing when I saw this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 12, 2016 Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 N PAC looks on fire Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2016 N PAC looks on fireRight?! A pocket of +5C waters is expanding... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 13, 2016 Report Share Posted September 13, 2016 Man o man if we start pouring cold air masses over these warm GL's somebody's going to get buried! https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/soaring-great-lakes-temperatures-could-impact-your-forecast/71163 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2016 Here is the latest SCRIPPS ENSO run for Sept... Fall... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-09_for_2016-09.jpg Winter.... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-09_for_2016-12.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 14, 2016 Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 Here is the latest SCRIPPS ENSO run for Sept... Fall... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-09_for_2016-09.jpg Winter.... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-09_for_2016-12.jpg It looks like it is back to a "Modiki Nina" then? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 It looks like it is back to a "Modiki Nina" then?It's always had a La Niña, but it's not as strong as a few months ago. I find the SCRIPPS model runs a bit cold compared to all the other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 14, 2016 Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 It's always had a La Niña, but it's not as strong as a few months ago. I find the SCRIPPS model runs a bit cold compared to all the other models. So all this talk of La Nada was never in play? Couple questions:1) exactly which zone (3.4, etc) determines the actual "enso state"? Because that graph a few posts back shows Neut conditions for 3.4 during Dec to Mar2) Which region are those colder La Nina anamolies in? I cant tell from the image(s) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 So all this talk of La Nada was never in play? Couple questions:1) exactly which zone (3.4, etc) determines the actual "enso state"? Because that graph a few posts back shows Neut conditions for 3.4 during Dec to Mar2) Which region are those colder La Nina anamolies in? I cant tell from the image(s) If the SOI continues to stay sky high, the La Nina could very well continue through the Winter months. I'm not confident enough to say that will happen. ENSO 3.4 region SST anomalies are used to determine the ENSO state. Here is a map of the various ENSO regions... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 14, 2016 Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 If the SOI continues to stay sky high, the La Nina could very well continue through the Winter months. I'm not confident enough to say that will happen. ENSO 3.4 region SST anomalies are used to determine the ENSO state. Here is a map of the various ENSO regions... Those Scripps colderst waters then are forecasted in the 3.4 region? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 Those Scripps colderst waters then are forecasted in the 3.4 region?You got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 14, 2016 Report Share Posted September 14, 2016 Scripps has been super cold with the Niña development since the very beginning. I was kinda in agreement in late spring when we saw the subsurface at -5 and -6°c but now in another string of unusual events this year, I'm pretty much in agreement with the cool neutral group. The cool pool has all but disappeared at the subsurface and the lack of a sustainable atmospheric connection beyond the recent SOI pop suggests maybe -.2 to -.4°c as a maximum sustainable average. There's just really no way it can survive in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2016 The CPC has cancelled the La Nina Watch...they are expecting ENSO neutral conditions after all. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml http://gizmodo.com/la-nina-might-not-be-coming-after-all-1786512939?utm_content=buffer33e87&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Subsurface temps are no where near as cold as they were in the Spring... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 15, 2016 Report Share Posted September 15, 2016 The CPC has cancelled the La Nina Watch...they are expecting ENSO neutral conditions after all. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml http://gizmodo.com/la-nina-might-not-be-coming-after-all-1786512939?utm_content=buffer33e87&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Subsurface temps are no where near as cold as they were in the Spring... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif The S PAC "punt fakes" the Fed's. Love it! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 15, 2016 Report Share Posted September 15, 2016 The S PAC "punt fakes" the Fed's. Love it!Lol. It's kind of like the Nino we heard about for 3 years that FINALLY happened last year. I don't know why but I get a certain thrill out of them being that wrong all the time. Niña will come eventually but I think it will be next winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted September 15, 2016 Report Share Posted September 15, 2016 I blame global warming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2016 The JAMSTEC's Sept run also in-line with the rest of the global models and has neutral ENSO conditions persisting through the Autumn/Winter months... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1sep2016.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 The POAMA ENSO data suggesting a weak La Nina throughout Winter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 20, 2016 Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 The POAMA ENSO data suggesting a weak La Nina throughout Winter... As far as typical synoptic patterns go, there's probably not a lot of differences resulting from an ENSO state of weak Nina up to a weak Nino (and all the neutral in between), is there? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 As far as typical synoptic patterns go, there's probably not a lot of differences resulting from an ENSO state of weak Nina up to a weak Nino (and all the neutral in between), is there? I've been reading that there are differences if you are closer to one "weak" ENSO state to the other. If we do end up -0.4C, or close to a weak La Nina state, I expect more typical Nina conditions to transpire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 20, 2016 Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 I've been reading that there are differences if you are closer to one "weak" ENSO state to the other. If we do end up -0.4C, or close to a weak La Nina state, I expect more typical Nina conditions to transpire. I guess I'm not clear on the differences tbh. Do you (we) have maps to illustrate the 2 different outcomes? I think Niko posted La Nada somewhere on here? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 I guess I'm not clear on the differences tbh. Do you (we) have maps to illustrate the 2 different outcomes? I think Niko posted La Nada somewhere on here?No, I don't have any maps to showcase. However, here is a typical La Nina wx pattern over N.A....one thing that draws my attn is the blocking HP in the NE PAC. We are seeing above normal SST's in this area which would suggest an even more pronounced ridge to develop, influencing the wx pattern even farther. Edit: I just located this map for a weak Nino... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 20, 2016 Report Share Posted September 20, 2016 No, I don't have any maps to showcase. However, here is a typical La Nina wx pattern over N.A....one thing that draws my attn is the blocking HP in the NE PAC. We are seeing above normal SST's in this area which would suggest an even more pronounced ridge to develop, influencing the wx pattern even farther. Edit: I just located this map for a weak Nino...This would technically leave us cold and bone dry, with more like fast moving clippers skirting the area and big storms to be pounding the EC with lots of snows, even as far south into the Carolina's. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Remarkably, all ENSO regions anomalies have risen to 0C or above. Nearly a .5C jump in the 3.4/4/3 Regions... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 "Remarkably, all ENSO regions anomalies have risen to 0C or above. Nearly a .5C jump in the 3.4/4/3 Regions..." Ruh Roh Skippy, better re-post your weak El Nino map and dust off those analogs just in case, eh? Other than the infamous '77-78 season, what others are you (or anyone) aware of? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Ruh Roh Skippy, better re-post your weak El Nino map and dust off those analogs just in case, eh? Other than the infamous '77-78 season, what others are you (or anyone) aware of?Nah, we are not going to see a weak El Nino...Trade Winds are expected to promote Nina-like conditions as we head into October... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 26, 2016 Report Share Posted September 26, 2016 Good ole La Niño. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 There have been some wild swings in surface temps in all the ENSO regions. ENSO 4 region has dropped off significantly of late... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png ENSO 3.4... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png ENSO 3... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png It's not hard to find the central pacific cold pool on the map below...I don't recall seeing the central Pacific swing back and forth so much. Nearly 1C temp swings. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I think I'd rather see that cold pool shift east rather than be so far west. The SE ridge could be huge this winter if it keeps moving west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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