2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion

[Tom]

Meantime, ENSO 3.4 & 3 Regions are taking a dip...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

[Tom]

If anyone has the chance to take a look at WB's Saturday Summary, JB goes in depth into his Winter forecast.  First off, he is backing off on any chance of a strong La Nina forming this year which makes sense since pretty much every model has done so.  He has some interesting analogs on the table and believes it will be a slow start to Winter this year, similar to what happened last year (I don't know if I believe that idea just yet).  

 

Nonetheless, the central Rockies/Plains are highlighted for above normal snowfall as well as the eastern Lakes/East Coast.  However, their in-house pioneer model has a much different look to it which is quite colder east of the Rockies with the Lakes near the epicenter of the cold (earily similar to what 2013-14 looked like)....which, BTW, the CFSv2 is trying to hint at that idea for sometime now if you look at the 500mb pattern.  One other thing that is standing out is the ridging off the SE coast which the CFSv2 is advertising.  Very warm waters off the East Coast.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd5.gif

 

 

 

IMO, a lot will depend on how the GOA trough develops in mid/late Autumn which will be the driving mechanism to the North American pattern.  The CFSv2 see's it deepening quite a bit in November which creates a down stream trough for the eastern CONUS.  I've been watching the model daily and its not backing off that idea.  Could be an interesting start to Winter, but may let off the gas peddle a bit in December (I do think this will be a long winter for much of the nation).  Anyway, there is a lot on the table for this Winter season...I don't want to get ahead of myself just yet.

 

Meanwhile, ENSO 3.4 & 3 continue the slide....interestingly, the central equatorial pacific is cooling the fastest ATM.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[OKwx2k4]

I don't really have anything to add to that. I feel like you've covered every base possible. Good post.

[OKwx2k4]

I will add that from a historical standpoint and from what I have studied about all cycles involved, 1878-79 has to be the best pure analog year that a person could use. The shame in this is that there's just simply not a lot of information around about that year.

[Tom]

Here's the latest weekly CPC update on the equatorial pacific.  We can see the colder waters upwelling near ENSO 3 & 3.4 regions...the surface waters near the 1.2 region have also cooled with less pockets of warmer waters.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

[Tom]

Colder waters are upwelling quickly near the ENSO 3.4/3 regions...

 

Near -.9C in 3.4 region...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[jaster220]

Is there such a thing as a "Modiki La Nina" like there is for an El Nino? And if so, does anyone know what the differences of effects might be vs. a traditional set-up?

[Tom]

Is there such a thing as a "Modiki La Nina" like there is for an El Nino? And if so, does anyone know what the differences of effects might be vs. a traditional set-up?

Sure is, click the link below.  The Japanese discovered this phenomena since 2007.

 

http://la.climatologie.free.fr/enso/enso-pdo2-english.htm#ninamodoki

 

It's hard to say how this year's event will impact our region give the +PDO.  Here is a short summary on a typical La Nina wx pattern for N.A. from Wikipedia:

 

 

 

La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño, above-average precipitation across the northern Midwest, the northern Rockies, Northern California, and the Pacific Northwest's southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states is below average.^[24]

 

[Tom]

Favorable trade winds over next 2 weeks to amplify La Nina...

 

 

 

 

Edit: Linkage...rising SOI...

 

SOI values for 19 Jul 2016 Average for last 30 days 1.27

Average for last 90 days -0.62

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 15.57
 

[OKwx2k4]

I knew the day after I said something it would ramp up. Just knew it. Lol.

[Tom]

ENSO 4 region has finally dipped negative after what was about a 6-7 week pop into positive territory...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

[jaster220]

Sure is, click the link below.  The Japanese discovered this phenomena since 2007.

 

http://la.climatologie.free.fr/enso/enso-pdo2-english.htm#ninamodoki

 

It's hard to say how this year's event will impact our region give the +PDO.  Here is a short summary on a typical La Nina wx pattern for N.A. from Wikipedia:

 

 

 

Awesome find! thx

[Tom]

Subsurface waters not as cold as they were before in the recent trends...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

If this should continue, then we may not be expecting a weak/moderate La Nina.  Should that happen, the warm +PDO will most likely become the driving force this Winter and over power the ENSO event.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah. The "No Nina" option is starting to look like the way to go at this time. It is reaching the point where if the Niña is going to fail, we should see the PDO start ticking back up really soon. I really like the options in play for our winter this year now. Cold with normal precip down here would be ideal.

[Tom]

Subsurface waters are losing its strength of late.  No more -4C temps to be found.  I really wonder if the warm PDO is impacting the La Nina from cooling.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Here is the Pacific Ocean's current state of affairs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

It's surprising to me, when you have so much cold water near Antarctica and prevailing trade winds are favorable for a spike in colder waters.  Still early in the game, let's see what happens this month and into Sep/Oct.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

 

With a big pop in the SOI, ENSO 1.2 began cooling again...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png

[OKwx2k4]

Man, you gave me a lot to take in today. Great posts in all threads. Still don't really know if this thing will grab and hold on yet. I'm getting more and more skeptical by the day. Looking to see the increase now in the pdo like I was mentioning before. For all of us not in the eastern US, I do agree that our key to winter lies with the pdo strength. Parts of this post may not belong in here but will try to comment where needed in the others later.

[OKwx2k4]

I have a big deal, I guess, about just picking a spot and standing on it so I'm going to go with -.5 to -.8 for our Niña and stay there. If August roasts all the way to the end down around my area and we get a good trades burst soon, I will have felt pretty good about my decision by September 1st and will make my winter thoughts from there. :-)

[Thunder98]

I have a big deal, I guess, about just picking a spot and standing on it so I'm going to go with -.5 to -.8 for our Niña and stay there. If August roasts all the way to the end down around my area and we get a good trades burst soon, I will have felt pretty good about my decision by September 1st and will make my winter thoughts from there. :-)

I think La Niña will be around -.8 to -1.0 this winter and next year I think a super La Niña might occur.

[Tom]

TBH, I don't think it's a good idea just yet to jump on one model or the other with the La Nina this year.  By late September/October, is probably when the modeling will have a better idea of what happens with this event.

 

CFSv2 is flipping now to a much colder look!  Could just be one of those daily runs you throw out.  Amazing how much it can go back and forth...when you look at the forecasted trade winds and the fact that they are favorable for more cooling, can't just dismiss it.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016080118/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_1.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016080118/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_2.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016080118/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_3.png

[UnionWX]

 

Latest ENSO forecast from the POAMA now shows neutral conditions through winter 16-17. https://t.co/VpaIkfyueY

[OKwx2k4]

I think La Niña will be around -.8 to -1.0 this winter and next year I think a super La Niña might occur.

I don't doubt you that a Niña will occur again next year but it's going to be really really hard to flip the whole pacific, which seems to be in its long term warm mode. Everything I've seen with ENSO over the last few years says you can't really forecast it that far out anyway. Hearing talk of a super Niño for 3 years before it actually happened kinda burned me out on long range ENSO hype.

[Tom]

Here is the latest Euro monthlies SST anomaly heading into January...what La Nina???  More like, ENSO neutral conditions...very similar to the CFSv2.  Classic warm PDO with a clear warm ring along the western coast of N.A. and a tongue of colder waters south of the Aleutians.

 

[OKwx2k4]

I like that look there. It sets the EPAC ridge far enough off the west coast to keep the cold locked in the central US. Love it.

[Tom]

Cooler waters are definitely gaining ground in the central PAC and overall slowly creating Nina conditions.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Some blobs of near -2C waters popping up to the surface...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

[Tom]

SCRIPPS comes out with their new monthly outlook in the next day or two.  I think it backs off on the strength of the NINA.  Let's see what happens.

[Tom]

Of note, for the first time this season, all ENSO regions SST anomalies are below 0C....

 

Latest CFSv2 monthlies suggest a continued strengthening of the La Nina and a central based look to it...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd1.gif

[Tom]

SCRIPP's just updated their August Outlook and as predicted, they backed off the strength of the La Nina during the Autumn and Winter.

 

Autumn months SON...backed off about 0.5C from last months run...

 

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-08_for_2016-09.jpg

 

 

Winter DJF...decreased the coverage of -2C body of water and surely has a modiki look to it...this could possibly have an effect by keeping the coldest temps over the central CONUS.

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-08_for_2016-12.jpg

[OKwx2k4]

Nice. The modoki type nina could also aid in pulling the +precip anomalies further west as well. I'm really easing into being borderline excited about fall and winter now. :-)

[Tom]

The latest CPC ENSO update showing a colder body of subsurface water forming near 160W which would help keep this a central-based La Nina.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif
 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

[Tom]

For those interested, here is the CPC's August 11th's update on the La Nina Watch:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[jaster220]

The latest CPC ENSO update showing a colder body of subsurface water forming near 160W which would help keep this a central-based La Nina.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

 

DT was saying that this looks to end up "barely" a weak Nina, and a Modiki one at that, for which there's almost zero "case history" so that could throw a curve ball at everyone who makes a projection for the winter based on analogues. He personally likes '95-96 (ofc an infamously awesome winter for his region of the Mid-atlantic coast) but he also includes (based on current ocean projections) 2011-12. LOL, I can't think of two winters further apart tbh. Two winters that were infamous, but for reasons that were, pardon the pun, polar opposites! 

 

#shortlist:

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

59-60 and 83-84 have had my attention. Not sure about 66-67. Maybe added for balance or something. Was cold pretty far south but normal up north.

[OKwx2k4]

DT is a pretty sharp guy on a lot of things but I can't stand reading his posts or the way he writes.

[jaster220]

59-60 and 83-84 have had my attention. Not sure about 66-67. Maybe added for balance or something. Was cold pretty far south but normal up north.

 

B4 my time, but pretty sure '59-60 was classic around SMI. 83-84 is notorious for the coldest Christmas Eve but snowfall was paltry. Best storms were suppressed south during JFM. Best snow may have been in April where I was growing up at my folks place in SEMI.

[OKwx2k4]

B4 my time, but pretty sure '59-60 was classic around SMI. 83-84 is notorious for the coldest Christmas Eve but snowfall was paltry. Best storms were suppressed south during JFM. Best snow may have been in April where I was growing up at my folks place in SEMI.

 

The insane cold snap in mid January 1984 is probably part of the reason I was conceived. Lol

[Niko]

SCRIPPS comes out with their new monthly outlook in the next day or two.  I think it backs off on the strength of the NINA.  Let's see what happens.

I am assuming that is good news. The weaker La Nina, the better for us.

[OKwx2k4]

I wanted to add earlier as well that DT did write, in collaboration with another meteorologist, a slideshow on the QBO that I found yesterday in a Google search. It was written back in 07 or 08 but showed a linkage between dips and pauses in the strength of the QBO and cold spells and storms. It was a really good read but I can't find it again now to save my life. There may be a direct link there between the pause in the QBO cycle and our current cooldown situation as we head into autumn.

[gabel23]

The insane cold snap in mid January 1984 is probably part of the reason I was conceived. Lol

That year was one of the coldest and snowiest winters in history for us in Nebraska. I was born in December that year and my parents had to drive thru a blizzard on the way to the hospital. That lead to 9 straight days below zero and a snow depth of 30"......if I remember right they had a snow depth all the way until April. I would love to experience a winter like that. 

[OKwx2k4]

That year was one of the coldest and snowiest winters in history for us in Nebraska. I was born in December that year and my parents had to drive thru a blizzard on the way to the hospital. That lead to 9 straight days below zero and a snow depth of 30"......if I remember right they had a snow depth all the way until April. I would love to experience a winter like that.

Just for placing the year in perspective scientifically, this one shares a lot of attributes with 1983-84 at a glance. Nearing the end of a solar cycle and coming after a huge Nino being the 2 that stand out the most. Finding more similarities as I go along and will add them when I find them. Liking 59-60 for similar reasons as well.

[Tom]

Here is the latest mid-August ENSO Plume update from the International Research Institute...looking more likely that a weak La Nina is on the table.  More agreement among the various 25 models this run.  Should get better in time.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/figure4.gif