2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion

[james1976]

Thanks for all the images and thoughts guys. Always fun to read. Summer is just beginning (which I love) but I'm already excited for a La Nina winter. Some of those models look like 13-14 which was brutal around here.

[Niko]

We could be in for a Very Cold winter..........

 

http://notrickszone.com/2016/04/15/early-forecast-veteran-meteorologist-predicts-harsh-201617-winter-and-worst-hurricane-season-in-10-years/#sthash.4KiG70lO.dpbs

[Tom]

We could be in for a Very Cold winter..........

 

http://notrickszone.com/2016/04/15/early-forecast-veteran-meteorologist-predicts-harsh-201617-winter-and-worst-hurricane-season-in-10-years/#sthash.4KiG70lO.dpbs

Interesting site, thanks for posting.  We have a former NOAA met who has developed a technology (patent pending) which uses cycles to predict long range forecasting. ..Climate Pulse Technology. Yet another met who has discovered the benefits of figuring out various cyclical past events to predict the future.  Here is a short summary of his theory for those who don't have the time to read through his website...

 

Overview - Natural Climate Pulse and the Scientifically Proven "Milankovitch Cycles"

Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  These rhythms include but are not limited to:  day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years.





The gravitational cycles of the moon and sun cause the seasonal tilts of the earth's axis and the 4 seasons.  The strong gravitational pull of the moon causes a bulge to form in the center of the 5 oceans.  As the earth makes a complete rotation on its axis daily, the moon rises and falls in the sky.  This causes dramatic changes to the gravitational pull, with increases and decreases occurring during the daily cycle.  This causes a gravitational pulse which in turn causes an interactive plunging action on the ocean's bulge, thus producing the twice daily ocean tides. The gravitational tides are also noticed in the earth's atmosphere, and in lower depths of the ocean.

​

The daily rotation of the earth provides the twice daily tides, and the 27.5 day elliptical path of the moon around the earth provides a monthly and bi-monthly  gravitational pulse.  The cycles then extend out in time as the elliptical path of the earth around the sun, and the moon around the earth cyclical change from one month to the next, every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years and beyond.  The earths 130 thousand year elliptical path is well documented in science and is proven to be the cause for the earth's inter-glacial (warm) as the earth swings in closer to the sun, and glacial periods (cold)  that occur every 130 thousand years as the earth swings further away from the sun.  The current warm inter-glacial period peaked about 7 thousand years ago, and the peak of the next glacial period will be 70 to 110 thousand years from now.

​

The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate change is the combination of the elliptical paths of the moon and earth, changes in solar radiation and changes in the gravitational pulses and electromagnetic pulses.  The scientific term is the "Milankovitch Cycles", accepted science within the climate community and it is proven science, unlike anthropogenic causes that have not been proven.

 

Subsets of the Milankovitch Cycles control the Earth's "Natural Climate Pulse", and it is this Natural Pulse that controls weather and climate cycles here on earth.   This is proven science.

​

The earth's climate is very complex and very cyclical due to the PFM Natural Climate Pulse interacting with the oceans, atmosphere and inner/outer cores of earth.  The high and low tides of the oceans alternate approximately every 6 hours, and ocean tides and some currents change with the PFM cycles.   Above the surface of the Earth is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the PFM cycles  

​

Earth's temperature changes seasonally due to the seasonal tilt of the earth, with longer term cycles due to the PFM Natural Pulse cycles every 10-years, 230 years and 130 thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO (avalable on the Natural Pulse Page) illustrates that earth's current temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 (now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years).

​

GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models formulated from a subset of  the scientifically proven "Milankovitch" cycles of the  earth, moon and sun. 

[OKwx2k4]

Awesome stuff. Thanks for sharing!

[jaster220]

JAMSTEC model update for June still showing a basin wide La Nina setting up by Fall/Winter with a warm PDO in place.

 

Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1jun2016.gif

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1jun2016.gif

 

 

JAMSTEC still thinking a moderate La Nina is coming which most modeling consensus agrees.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2016.gif

 

I will say that we get some of our snowiest winters in the Southern Lakes region when the SSTA is within +/-0.5 from neutral, so JAMSTEC seems to be signaling that for the following winter. Not sure exactly how the snow signal is for a moderate (-1+) SSTA as depicted for this coming January? I think cold is likely, snowfall output remains to be seen imho. 2010-11 was not so great for mby here in SCMI, but ORD and DTW on either side did really good!  

[jaster220]

Interesting site, thanks for posting.  We have a former NOAA met who has developed a technology (patent pending) which uses cycles to predict long range forecasting. ..Climate Pulse Technology. Yet another met who has discovered the benefits of figuring out various cyclical past events to predict the future.  Here is a short summary of his theory for those who don't have the time to read through his website...

 

Overview - Natural Climate Pulse and the Scientifically Proven "Milankovitch Cycles"

Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  These rhythms include but are not limited to:  day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years.





The gravitational cycles of the moon and sun cause the seasonal tilts of the earth's axis and the 4 seasons.  The strong gravitational pull of the moon causes a bulge to form in the center of the 5 oceans.  As the earth makes a complete rotation on its axis daily, the moon rises and falls in the sky.  This causes dramatic changes to the gravitational pull, with increases and decreases occurring during the daily cycle.  This causes a gravitational pulse which in turn causes an interactive plunging action on the ocean's bulge, thus producing the twice daily ocean tides. The gravitational tides are also noticed in the earth's atmosphere, and in lower depths of the ocean.

​

The daily rotation of the earth provides the twice daily tides, and the 27.5 day elliptical path of the moon around the earth provides a monthly and bi-monthly  gravitational pulse.  The cycles then extend out in time as the elliptical path of the earth around the sun, and the moon around the earth cyclical change from one month to the next, every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years and beyond.  The earths 130 thousand year elliptical path is well documented in science and is proven to be the cause for the earth's inter-glacial (warm) as the earth swings in closer to the sun, and glacial periods (cold)  that occur every 130 thousand years as the earth swings further away from the sun.  The current warm inter-glacial period peaked about 7 thousand years ago, and the peak of the next glacial period will be 70 to 110 thousand years from now.

​

The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate change is the combination of the elliptical paths of the moon and earth, changes in solar radiation and changes in the gravitational pulses and electromagnetic pulses.  The scientific term is the "Milankovitch Cycles", accepted science within the climate community and it is proven science, unlike anthropogenic causes that have not been proven.

 

Subsets of the Milankovitch Cycles control the Earth's "Natural Climate Pulse", and it is this Natural Pulse that controls weather and climate cycles here on earth.   This is proven science.

​

The earth's climate is very complex and very cyclical due to the PFM Natural Climate Pulse interacting with the oceans, atmosphere and inner/outer cores of earth.  The high and low tides of the oceans alternate approximately every 6 hours, and ocean tides and some currents change with the PFM cycles.   Above the surface of the Earth is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the PFM cycles  

​

Earth's temperature changes seasonally due to the seasonal tilt of the earth, with longer term cycles due to the PFM Natural Pulse cycles every 10-years, 230 years and 130 thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO (avalable on the Natural Pulse Page) illustrates that earth's current temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 (now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years).

​

GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models formulated from a subset of  the scientifically proven "Milankovitch" cycles of the  earth, moon and sun. 

 

That's a lot of "tech talk" across many scientific disciplines and I don't claim to be an expert. But, I'm pretty certain it's a well accepted fact that the last ice age came to a rather sudden end roughly 11-12,000 yrs ago. If the ice age interval stated above is 120K yrs (+/-), how did the current inter-glacial warm spell peak so quickly 7,000 yrs ago??   My, that was an awfully quick spike if true leaving the only way as "down" for the next 110K yrs?  That doesn't jive to me.  

[Tom]

I will say that we get some of our snowiest winters in the Southern Lakes region when the SSTA is within +/-0.5 from neutral, so JAMSTEC seems to be signaling that for the following winter. Not sure exactly how the snow signal is for a moderate (-1+) SSTA as depicted for this coming January? I think cold is likely, snowfall output remains to be seen imho. 2010-11 was not so great for mby here in SCMI, but ORD and DTW on either side did really good!  

I believe that year we had many Clippers that produced some good snows and then the BIG GHD Blizzard that buried us.  That was also the last of 4 years in a row which produced 50"+ of snowfall.  It was a fun stretch to see that many snowy Winters.  Looking forward to this upcoming Winter.  Hard not to get a little excited given the SST set up in the Pacific.

[james1976]

The cold winters usually deliver a lot of Clippers and I do well with those. I looking forward to the developing La Nina.

[Tom]

The tropical pacific has warmed a bit over the past 7-10 days as shown in the weekly SST anomalies below...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

Some warmer pools have shown up on the surface...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

All ENSO regions are now turning colder though over the last few days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Tom]

Here is Accuweather's first stab at the Winter forecast...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_06221023_la-nin_a-winter-impacts-2016-hd-adc.jpg

[Tom]

As I expected, last week's weekly run of the CFSv2 seasonal anomalies lost the Greenland Blocking, but has come back.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

That NW NAMER ridge coupled with a mature trough south of the Aleutians reminds me of the SST's during the late 70's.  Not to mention, a persistent -NAO, something we have NOT seen the last 3 Winters.  Cold intrusions in the Winter of 2013-14 came and went, zipped on by.  With more blocking for this winter, it could spell trouble for persistent long lasting cold outbreaks.  

 

You can see where the model is heading as we get closer towards Fall/Winter.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT850SeaInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT850SeaInd6.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Man, a late 70s plus '13-'14 combo winter would be pretty neat to see. Also with a lot of temp anomalies over the US comparing with historic warm records from 1877-1878 last winter, one could throw in the winter of 1878-79 into the mix this year. Looks really similar from what history I've seen. Overall one would have to at least acknowledge that the odds of a cold winter from the Rockies east is increasing.

[jaster220]

Here is Accuweather's first stab at the Winter forecast...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_06221023_la-nin_a-winter-impacts-2016-hd-adc.jpg

 

As said, weak ENSO +/- is historically favorable for S. Lakes to score a good snowfall season. I know S. ONT is due for a good snow season and mby usually shares the same synoptic system track most of the time, so you could translate that darker blue HEAVY SNOWFALL zone back WSW towards SMI like in 2013-14. The bitter stuff may have been of the hit-n-run variety that season, but there were endless winds and practically zero "warm spells" unless you consider 38*F and rain on top of 20" OTG a mild spell. That winter was absolutely unheard of brutal by SMI standards and had I not lived and worked in the snowbelts of NMI for 7 yrs, it would've seemed surreal for a SMI native. And yes, as you can see by mby totals below, it would bring the potential 4th consecutive above normal tally around these parts.

[Niko]

As said, weak ENSO +/- is historically favorable for S. Lakes to score a good snowfall season. I know S. ONT is due for a good snow season and mby usually shares the same synoptic system track most of the time, so you could translate that darker blue HEAVY SNOWFALL zone back WSW towards SMI like in 2013-14. The bitter stuff may have been of the hit-n-run variety that season, but there were endless winds and practically zero "warm spells" unless you consider 38*F and rain on top of 20" OTG a mild spell. That winter was absolutely unheard of brutal by SMI standards and had I not lived and worked in the snowbelts of NMI for 7 yrs, it would've seemed surreal for a SMI native. And yes, as you can see by mby totals below, it would bring the potential 4th consecutive above normal tally around these parts.

Indeed Jaster. That winter was one of a kind. My snowfall was an all-time record (95.0"). It would snow here in SEMI that memorable winter of 2013-14 every 2 to 3 days and I mean measurable snowfall. Every week we would get a couple of snowstorms and it would just pile and pile and pile, followed by brutal subzero temps. I remember in February that winter, a huge snowstorm buried my area with nearly 2feet of snow, along with several feet of drifts. Everything that morning was buried. Cars could not be seen. A winter to be remembered for a long time.

[Geos]

Here is Accuweather's first stab at the Winter forecast...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-la-nina-forecast-fall-winter-2016-2017/58306249

 

 

Interesting seeing the thought of persistent cold over the Mid Atlantic. Usually in a la Nina there, it's back and forth.

[jaster220]

Interesting seeing the thought of persistent cold over the Mid Atlantic. Usually in a la Nina there, it's back and forth.

 

Certainly, if the mean track favors us in the S. Lakes they will go up and down with the cold being transient

[Tom]

The latest weekly SST anomalies showing the colder waters coming up towards the surface between 150-120W..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

 

Right below that surface region are the coldest waters at the moment...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Geos]

As I expected, last week's weekly run of the CFSv2 seasonal anomalies lost the Greenland Blocking, but has come back.

 

 

 

That NW NAMER ridge coupled with a mature trough south of the Aleutians reminds me of the SST's during the late 70's.  Not to mention, a persistent -NAO, something we have NOT seen the last 3 Winters.  Cold intrusions in the Winter of 2013-14 came and went, zipped on by.  With more blocking for this winter, it could spell trouble for persistent long lasting cold outbreaks.  

 

You can see where the model is heading as we get closer towards Fall/Winter.

 

 

 

I noticed these maps have changed a bit. The 0.5-1 area has been pushed further south from the west coast to the Midwest.

[Tom]

Cooler waters are continuing to spread west along the equatorial Pacific.  We are not seeing dramatic shifts in declining temps, but nonetheless, cooling is expanding slowly.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

The latest depth anomalies...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

[Geos]

Cooler waters are continuing to spread west along the equatorial Pacific.  We are not seeing dramatic shifts in declining temps, but nonetheless, cooling is expanding slowly.

 

 

The latest depth anomalies...

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's sure a lot more colder water down below!

Get into a good upwelling pattern and the ENSO index could really crash in a hurry.

[Tom]

There's sure a lot more colder water down below!

Get into a good upwelling pattern and the ENSO index could really crash in a hurry.

I'm curious to see how much the cold Antarctic winter will impact the oceanic waters in the south Pacific.  The weekly SST animation shows the colder waters moving northward out of the south, especially along the South American coastline.  This is usually where the oceanic currents flow and if the favorable trade winds persist out of the east, I think we can see an impact.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

 

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/oceancurrents.gif

 

 

The waters surrounding Antarctica are cold!

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.4.2016.gif

[Tom]

SCRIPPS just updated their SST Forecast for Fall and Winter...

 

Fall...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-07_for_2016-09.jpg

 

Winter...

 

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-07_for_2016-12.jpg

 

Here are the numerical values for Fall and Winter...

 

 

NDJ 2016/2017 -1.90

 

DJF 2016/2017 -1.85

 

 

Definitely has trended down from its insane negative values a couple months ago.  Seems more realistic to me now.

[Tom]

Is the CFSv2 picking up on high latitude blocking over the Arctic???  SST analogs suggesting the same thing, coupled with very low solar...I think this is trending the right way.  The models may also be seeing the low solar trend...maybe not, but it's interesting to see intense blocking to the north.

 

It starts in Dec...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd6.gif

 

 

 

Dec-Feb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

[OKwx2k4]

That almost looks like the ssw induced blocking pattern from 2010-11 that set crazy cold temperature records in January or February that year.

[Tom]

I'll post this here...latest run temp forecasts from the NASA model for Fall/Winter...

 

Fall...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

Winter...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season5.png

 

 

Seems to be siding with the CFSv2 but less cooling in the central states.  Signals of a ridge off both the west and east coasts.

[Geos]

I'll post this here...latest run temp forecasts from the NASA model for Fall/Winter...

 

Fall...

 

 

Winter...

 

 

 

Seems to be siding with the CFSv2 but less cooling in the central states.  Signals of a ridge off both the west and east coasts.

 

That's a really weird signal for a moderate la Nina. Usually from the NW to the Great Lakes is near normal or below normal.

 

Currently the waters in the northeastern Pacific are cooling.

 

[Tom]

I'm hearing the new Euro seasonal run is showing a more "neutral" ENSO forecast...similar to what the CFSv2 is showing now.  Wow, can you say model inconsistency???  I'd like to see what the new JAMSTEC run shows around mid month.

[Tom]

With favorable easterlies continuing, we can see cooler waters starting to upwell in a more widespread fashion.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

The sliver of cool waters continues heading west...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

Here are the latest ENSO regions...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

[Tom]

There has been a clear trend by all the Global Climate models regarding the evolution of the equatorial Pacific waters as we head towards Autumn/Winter.  The CFSv2 was the first model to begin backing off the idea of a La Nina, then the Euro followed that idea...now, the latest JAMSTEC model is doing the same thing.  Here is the latest July outlook clearly backing off the La Nina from previous runs.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2016.gif

 

SST's for the Fall/Winter below...

 

Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1jul2016.gif

 

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif

 

 

The one thing that still hasn't backed off is the Ring of Warm waters (+PDO).  Should be another key element to drive the North American weather pattern.  I find it that weaker La Nina's and/or La Nada's tend to produce snowier winters near the Midwest/Lakes region.  Having said that, the July run is showing a much colder lower 48 as a result.

 

Let's begin with the Fall Outlook..

 

Not a really cold Autumn which is a typical Analog for this upcoming year..

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2016.1jul2016.gif

 

Looks like a "wet" signal for the central CONUS and SW region...I'd like to see a storm track develop out of the SW.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2016.1jul2016.gif

 

 

Here is the Winter...Arctic Hammer time!

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif

 

 

 

Possible storm track out of the Rockies into the central states...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2017.1jul2016.gif

 

This has been an interesting trend among the various models.  The summer season is usually a volatile period for models to show case their Winter Outlooks anyway.  So I would take this with a grain of salt, however, the trend in the Equatorial Pacific is something to ponder on.

[Tom]

Can you paint a better 700mb pattern??? 

 

NDJ...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Can you paint a better 700mb pattern???

 

NDJ...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd4.gif

 

DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd5.gif

I like the overall looks of a non-Nina +PDO for the winter. Still not sure if there will be a Niña or not or what the effects would be of that happening with all models being pretty sure of a +PDO. The next few models to be put out definitely will have my attention.

 

Need to get that ridge further off the west coast or I will be in warm sector of precip all winter.

[Tom]

I like the overall looks of a non-Nina +PDO for the winter. Still not sure if there will be a Niña or not or what the effects would be of that happening with all models being pretty sure of a +PDO. The next few models to be put out definitely will have my attention.

 

Need to get that ridge further off the west coast or I will be in warm sector of precip all winter.

Huh, wonder why you couldn't see it.  I've posted those maps before in the past and their weren't any problems.  I went ahead and saved the images differently.

[bud2380]

Tom, thanks for posting this, it is absolutely fascinating.  I have always been highly skeptical of global warming/climate change/insert liberal buzz word being a man made phenomenon.  The fact of the matter is the Earth's climate has changed dramatically over it's several billion year existence.  Even the most recent ice age was only about 12,000 years ago, which is not that long ago considering how old this planet is.  You see these handful of places experiencing some slightly different climate than we see historically and everyone jumps on that the world is coming to an end, and it's all our fault.  This is some fascinating stuff here based on real science.  I'd love to see this on 60 minutes or some other major news outlet and see what people think. 

 

 

Interesting site, thanks for posting.  We have a former NOAA met who has developed a technology (patent pending) which uses cycles to predict long range forecasting. ..Climate Pulse Technology. Yet another met who has discovered the benefits of figuring out various cyclical past events to predict the future.  Here is a short summary of his theory for those who don't have the time to read through his website...

 

Overview - Natural Climate Pulse and the Scientifically Proven "Milankovitch Cycles"

Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  These rhythms include but are not limited to:  day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years.


The gravitational cycles of the moon and sun cause the seasonal tilts of the earth's axis and the 4 seasons.  The strong gravitational pull of the moon causes a bulge to form in the center of the 5 oceans.  As the earth makes a complete rotation on its axis daily, the moon rises and falls in the sky.  This causes dramatic changes to the gravitational pull, with increases and decreases occurring during the daily cycle.  This causes a gravitational pulse which in turn causes an interactive plunging action on the ocean's bulge, thus producing the twice daily ocean tides. The gravitational tides are also noticed in the earth's atmosphere, and in lower depths of the ocean.
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The daily rotation of the earth provides the twice daily tides, and the 27.5 day elliptical path of the moon around the earth provides a monthly and bi-monthly  gravitational pulse.  The cycles then extend out in time as the elliptical path of the earth around the sun, and the moon around the earth cyclical change from one month to the next, every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years and beyond.  The earths 130 thousand year elliptical path is well documented in science and is proven to be the cause for the earth's inter-glacial (warm) as the earth swings in closer to the sun, and glacial periods (cold)  that occur every 130 thousand years as the earth swings further away from the sun.  The current warm inter-glacial period peaked about 7 thousand years ago, and the peak of the next glacial period will be 70 to 110 thousand years from now.
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The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate change is the combination of the elliptical paths of the moon and earth, changes in solar radiation and changes in the gravitational pulses and electromagnetic pulses.  The scientific term is the "Milankovitch Cycles", accepted science within the climate community and it is proven science, unlike anthropogenic causes that have not been proven.

 

Subsets of the Milankovitch Cycles control the Earth's "Natural Climate Pulse", and it is this Natural Pulse that controls weather and climate cycles here on earth.   This is proven science.
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The earth's climate is very complex and very cyclical due to the PFM Natural Climate Pulse interacting with the oceans, atmosphere and inner/outer cores of earth.  The high and low tides of the oceans alternate approximately every 6 hours, and ocean tides and some currents change with the PFM cycles.   Above the surface of the Earth is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the PFM cycles  
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Earth's temperature changes seasonally due to the seasonal tilt of the earth, with longer term cycles due to the PFM Natural Pulse cycles every 10-years, 230 years and 130 thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO (avalable on the Natural Pulse Page) illustrates that earth's current temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 (now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years).
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GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models formulated from a subset of  the scientifically proven "Milankovitch" cycles of the  earth, moon and sun. 

[OKwx2k4]

JB'S early winter forecast goes public sometime in the morning. It will be interesting to see what he derives from the current sst profiles. The Pacific is pretty mixed right now IMO. It carries about 70 percent of the weight in determining my weather down here I would guess. It will make for some good buzz to get our minds off the summer heat.

[Thunder98]

Tom, thanks for posting this, it is absolutely fascinating.  I have always been highly skeptical of global warming/climate change/insert liberal buzz word being a man made phenomenon.  The fact of the matter is the Earth's climate has changed dramatically over it's several billion year existence.  Even the most recent ice age was only about 12,000 years ago, which is not that long ago considering how old this planet is.  You see these handful of places experiencing some slightly different climate than we see historically and everyone jumps on that the world is coming to an end, and it's all our fault.  This is some fascinating stuff here based on real science.  I'd love to see this on 60 minutes or some other major news outlet and see what people think.

 

Climate always changes

[Tom]

JB'S early winter forecast goes public sometime in the morning. It will be interesting to see what he derives from the current sst profiles. The Pacific is pretty mixed right now IMO. It carries about 70 percent of the weight in determining my weather down here I would guess. It will make for some good buzz to get our minds off the summer heat.

A couple days ago, when I saw the new JAMSTEC run come in, I thought the same thing.  Today on his Twitter page he recalls 2013-14 & 2014-15 as analogs.  I've been pondering on the idea of another repeat of '13-'14 but it's to early to say.  The CFSv2 is really seeing ample blocking during the winter months which I haven't seen the model paint in recent years this far out.  Like you said, SST profiles coupled with low solar and a La Nina or La Nada are looking mighty interesting.  It certainly will be on my mind when the blazing heat builds in later nxt week!  I must say, I've already had been envisioning Winter over the last week or so when I was doing some work in my back yard.

[Tom]

Here is a met from Cleveland who's released his first stab at the 2016-17 Winter...

 

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2016/07/preliminary-winter-2016-17-outlook.html

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Neither forecast is far from what I'd expect at first glance. Pretty much normal is what I'd have to go with for my region. Analogs are weighted a little cold pretty much because of '13-14. I'm fine with that. Hoping it's colder than expected but right now don't really have a whole lot to disagree with. Low solar does warrant high blocking but getting it to set up in favorable places or getting the pdo values up are going to be the biggest keys over the remainder of summer into fall.

[Tom]

Neither forecast is far from what I'd expect at first glance. Pretty much normal is what I'd have to go with for my region. Analogs are weighted a little cold pretty much because of '13-14. I'm fine with that. Hoping it's colder than expected but right now don't really have a whole lot to disagree with. Low solar does warrant high blocking but getting it to set up in favorable places or getting the pdo values up are going to be the biggest keys over the remainder of summer into fall.

The idea is there, but the fine details still a ways away.  Should be fun tracking the latest updates in all the long range models as we close out summer and head into Fall by September.

 

I"m also hearing that October may start off rather chilly.  Here is another Met's ENSO Analog...

 

[OKwx2k4]

I would like our odds a little better for the winter if October verified like that. Kinda resembles October 2000 if I'm not mistaken. Very few cold Octobers since the mid 2000s around my area.