2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Madtown]

Come on Nam giveme some sugar

[Iowawx]

12Z NAM out to hour 9, if this run, along with the 12Z GFS show a SE track, then it will be something to watch. 6Z NAM hits me with 4-6 inches of snow while 6Z GFS shows little to none. Come on SE shift!!

 

Any thoughts on the NAM so far??

[Money]

Looks similar to 6z so far through hr 22

[Money]

12z NAM HR 24: 995.7 just W of Joplin

 

06z NAM HR 30: 996.7 in the same location. 

[DominicR]

NAM continues to hit far NW IL/S WI with quick 3-5 inches with intial slug.

[Money]

NAM might even end up a tad SE of 6z.

[Money]

HR 34: 991.2 near Ponitiac IL or so

[Money]

HR 36: 988.7 just E of Chicago.

 

Consistent, nearly same location/strength as 6z. 

[DominicR]

Nice hit DBQ-RFD-MKE.

[DominicR]

Heavy axis of snow band did shift a tad SE.

[Money]

Now the question is the NAM on crack or is it seeing something that the others aren't? It doesn't phase the systems til later once it gets up into IL and then rapidly deepens, correct? 

[gosaints]

The NAM versus the world...

[Money]

The NAM versus the world...

 

Not true. HRW-NNM/HRW-ARW showed a similar path, and numerous GFS ensembles actually had the track the NAM was showing just a day or so ago. I'm not saying it's right, but it's def. not the only model showing that. 0z RGEM had a 987 low in the similar spot before the 06z run jumped it back nw

[gosaints]

It terms of defo placement it is true...

[Madtown]

so your saying there's a chance like a 5% chance for this area?

[Money]

09z SREF:

 

LSE:

 

Mean: 6.02 (03z: 7.30)

 

Highest: 14.41 (03z: 12.05)

Lowest: 1.88 (03z: 3.85)

 

Members over 6+: 7 (03z: 10)

 

DBQ: 

 

Mean: 3.52 (03z: 3.86)

 

Highest: 8.59 (03z: 9.83)

Lowest: 0.06 (03z: 0.23)

 

Members over 4+ 7 (03z:9)

 

OSH:

 

Mean: 3.82 (03z: 3.55)

 

Highest: 8.58 (03z: 8.78)

Lowest: 0.69 (03z: 0.53)

 

Members over 4+: 8 (03z: 5)

 

MKE:

 

Mean: 1.77 (03z: 2.04)

 

Highest: 7.00 (03z: 8.04)

Lowest: 0.00 (03z: 0.00)

 

Members over 2+: 4

[gosaints]

so your saying there's a chance like a 5% chance for this area?

Much better than 5 percent chance. Have to see if other models follow the nam

[Money]

4KM NAM is south of it's 6z run. MKE gets hammered.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140219+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

[gosaints]

4KM NAM is south of it's 6z run. MKE gets hammered.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140219+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

Yep that's intense rip city material

[Money]

12z RGEM: 981 over DBQ lol

[dubuque473]

East Dubzz and Debuque gonna be happy to hear that. Another adjustment and Chicago-MKE might be in game but not holding my breath here.

 

Under a WSW now...saying 1-4..I am thinking 1-2 but the wind is def going to be strong.

[Money]

How does dynamic cooling affect the low pressure systems? I know NAM is the best at showing that, but could that be the reason it's pushing farther SE?

[gosaints]

12z RGEM: 981 over DBQ lol

Nice consensus. Lol fun day to be a forecaster

[East Dubzz]

Just don't trust the NAM.

[Money]

Just don't trust the NAM.

 

It's odd because with these type of systems you would expect it to show a low west of LSE lol

 

I doubt it's onto something, but who knows. 

[gosaints]

It's odd because with these type of systems you would expect it to show a low west of LSE lol

 

I doubt it's onto something, but who knows.

I do agree with you can't throw it out

[Money]

12z GFS: 981.2 just E of LSE lol

 

And we go on..

[Sciascia]

GFS with less than an inch of rain here. Still more than half, but mega amounts are hopefully avoidable.

[BrianJK]

Wow does the gFS bomb out northern wisconsin going to have some crazy snow depths

 

Thats for sure.  Here is what the snow depth was like last weekend - prior to the 6" on Monday and the 12" tomorrow.

[gosaints]

Heading to the Hayward area on Friday should be a good site

[Madtown]

I give up!

[gosaints]

More worried about mixing here than the heaviest being to our east

[Geos]

Thats for sure.  Here is what the snow depth was like last weekend - prior to the 6" on Monday and the 12" tomorrow.

 

Want to elaborate on that? 

 

12km NAM soundings don't support snow for NE IL. east of McHenry Co.

[Tom]

^ I believe Brian responded to Gosaints comment on snow depths in Wisconsin.  Brian might have a place up there.

[Money]

Tom, what do you think about the NAM? Would be interesting to see if the HRW-NMM etc stay the same as it.

[Geos]

Nevermind Brian, didn't notice the word depth.

 

Fwiw

 

[BrianJK]

Geos - That was a quoted response reply to Gosaints and the incredible snowpack in Norther Wisconsin.  The pics were taken in Eagle River, WI which is in Vilas County (borders the UP).  By this weekend, there should be widespread 36-40" snow depths.

[Tom]

Well, the SE shift continued on the 12z NAM, 12z RGEM went west and so did the 12z GFS.  With a deepening system I'd say that a NW track would be correct as is the case when you have such a dynamic system.  I'd like to see what the 12z Euro has in store before making any final calls.  This is going to be one heck of a system who ever gets underneath the heavy snow band.  In fact, this will be the first Blizzard of the year that hits our region.

 

The NAM did great for the Jan 4-5th storm.  It was the only one that showed 12-16" totals for NE IL.  I wouldn't discount it just yet and would like to see 18z runs.  It sure looks like from C IA/SE MN/W&NW WI/UP are going to be in the prime spot for heavy snow.

[Money]

fyi HRW-ARW and HRW-NMM are both coming in SE.

 

Worlds apart from the GFS.

[gosaints]

We did have a blizzard here earlier this year.