SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Moot point. Andrew had a lot of mutton over the holidays this year. I actually have a new sheep. So a total of 3 now. The grass is doing pretty well right now. If the heat doesn't last to long we'll be fine. Hoping for an early fall/short summer this year. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 How about the 00Z Canadian? Seems like sort of a compromise? http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gifI don't know yet, the maps I use for mass and momentum fluxes haven't updated. Usually lags by an hour. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 May 2016 lacked 05/09 (31), 05/26 (32), and 05/28 (30) were all of the freezing or colder lows this May. That was 1 occurrence in a 14 day period where it averages 35 degrees. Now onto avg High, Low, and Mean. Not a whole lot warmer than a typical May on all categories. Avg High of 67.7 (+2.4) (16th warmest) this month, avg Low of 38.1 (+1.4) (22nd warmest), and Mean of 52.9 (+1.9) (18th warmest). There were many highs in the 60's, few in the 50's and even one high of 42 on 05/20 with all of the hill-tops covered in snow, rain all day in K-Falls. If it weren't for the latest heat wave occurring in the last few days of May I would have come a bit closer to a normal May. Now onto June!! What will it be like? Will I add more t'storm days to my 9 I currently have?? Makes me wonder if I'll get an earth-shattering 30-35 days in 2016.... I'm almost matching a normal number of 12 t'storm days on a typical year in Klamath Falls (1980-2015) and I barely just started my storm season. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Major shift in the bias-corrected 00z GEFS towards the 12z EPS solution in the 11-15 day, over the US. Still differences over the Pacific, but they're getting closer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 The 00z GEFS just completely caved to the ECMWF. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 The 00z GEFS just completely caved to the ECMWF. That was obvious for some time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 That was obvious for some time.Nothing is obvious in LR forecasting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Nothing is obvious in LR forecasting ECMWF usually wins. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Edit: The 00z ECMWF is similar to its 12z run on the large scale, actually cooler aloft by day8 with a stronger and more consolidated vorticity maximum over the NEPAC/AK. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Definitely looking like it could be a historically hot day on Sunday. 22c 850mb temps with light offshore flow is no joke for early June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 The 00z ECMWF is very similar to its 12z run overall, actually cooler by day 8. Actually warmer on day 6 and 7 for us here. I have not seen day 8 yet. Next Monday was shown to be around 70 at SEA on the 12Z run... but its around 80 on the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Actually warmer on day 6 and 7 for us here. I have not seen day 8 yet. Next Monday was shown to be around 70 at SEA on the 12Z run... but its around 80 on the 00Z run.I have it through day 10. Looks very sensible to me overall. Warmer on days 6/7, cooler on day8, similar day 9, warmer day 10 at 800mb. More variability as the vorticity is more concentrated a bit NW. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I have it through day 10. Looks very sensible to me overall. Yes... but warmer than the 12Z run. Just using the 240 hour frame (which I know is 12 hours different): 12Z run: http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls05/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls05-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-g3IYH_.png 00Z run: http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-YMPbZw.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Still seems poised to turn troughy after day 10... but backing off a little on this run with the timing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 It's really just a more concentrated vorticity maximum, due to the weaker cyclone at the pole. Differences in the long run will be negligible. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Either way, compared to the GEFS, the ECMWF and CMC have both been models of consistency (no pun intended there). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 It's really just a more concentrated vorticity maximum, due to the weaker cyclone at the pole. Differences in the long run will be negligible. Right... but it might back off on intensity as well. That seems to be pretty common lately even in the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Right... but it might back off on intensity as well. That seems to be pretty common lately even in the ECMWF.I don't care about intensity as much as I do large scale wave orientation, or in other words, the pattern. If anything, this run looks stronger with the incoming jet/vorticity. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Just for fun... here is the ECMWF from 10 days ago for this morning. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-VLNLIz.png And here was the actual map this morning... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-idyn8t.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 So, I'll take it you're siding with the GFS, then? For the record, I'm not forecasting a gargantuan trough or anything of the sort. Just a transition into typical troughing following the jet extension. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 So, I'll take it you're siding with the GFS, then?For the record, I'm not forecasting a gargantuan trough or anything of the sort. Just a transition into typical troughing following the jet extension.Not siding with any model. But you have to look at model tendencies as well. No model will be totally right at 240 hours. The ECMWF will probably be closest. But there could big differences in our weather with small changes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Not siding with any model. But you have to look at model tendencies as well. No model will be totally right at 240 hours. The ECMWF will probably be closest. But there could big differences in our weather with small changes.Gotcha, I agree. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Definitely looking like it could be a historically hot day on Sunday. 22c 850mb temps with light offshore flow is no joke for early June. FWIW... it peaked at 94 in Portland in early June of 1889 after a warm spring and wet, troughy period in the middle of May. With a Nino crashing into a Nina in June of 1889 and solar activity close to zero. There is hope for January! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Not siding with any model. But you have to look at model tendencies as well. No model will be totally right at 240 hours. The ECMWF will probably be closest. But there could big differences in our weather with small changes.The Euro ensembles were a lot troughier than the operational. They have been steadfast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 The Euro ensembles were a lot troughier than the operational. They have been steadfast.I was going to just post that. Side note... when the trough is offshore the result is usually warmer with more sun breaks here than if the trough is centered just to our east during summer. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-3O74f5.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I was going to just post that. Side note... when the trough is offshore the result is usually warmer with more sun breaks here than if the trough is centered just to our east during summer. There is enough westerly component to the flow and heights are low enough that that would be a fairly cloudy and cool, maybe wet, pattern at face value. Not that it matters. Ten days out, which seems to be the only time scale you post maps of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 There is enough westerly component to the flow and heights are low enough that that would be a fairly cloudy and cool, maybe wet, pattern at face value. Not that it matters. Ten days out, which seems to be the only time scale you post maps of. We are watching a period that has been 10-15 days out... Phil has been posting nothing but maps from that period. The next week is pretty much a given now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Nice little rain event tomorrow ahead of the warm weekend. Perfect timing to pick up some more rain. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_033_precip_p12.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I was going to just post that. Side note... when the trough is offshore the result is usually warmer with more sun breaks here than if the trough is centered just to our east during summer. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-3O74f5.pngMore repetitive map posting on my part. Cooler than average by 3-7F in the 10-15 day range: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 More repetitive map posting on my part. Cooler than average by 3-7F in the 10-15 day range: image.png Side note... the colder anomalies are offshore with the trough position offshore. Also remember that the ECMWF and EPS showed this week to be colder than normal 10 days ago. I fully expect the ridge to break down though.. that is inevitable. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I will also note that the 12Z GFS is running much more troughy in a week than its 00Z run. Its catching up! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I will also note that the 12Z GFS is running much more troughy in a week than its 00Z run. Its catching up!Typical goofus. After how terribly it's performed here, that's what I'm gonna call it until it scores a coup of some kind. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 After yesterday's 80+ temp. Seattle is already at 9 days above 80 and we average 25. Should be almost halfway there after this weekend and summer is still 20 days away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Side note... the colder anomalies are offshore with the trough position offshore. Also remember that the ECMWF and EPS showed this week to be colder than normal 10 days ago. I fully expect the ridge to break down though.. that is inevitable.It wouldn't surprise me if the coldest 850mb temperatures end up offshore, either. I wasn't arguing they'd be centered over your head. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 It wouldn't surprise me if the coldest 850mb temperatures end up offshore, either. I wasn't arguing they'd be centered over your head. Very typical as we move into summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 12Z Canadian for late next week.,, http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif The transition is clear now on all models. It now comes down to how far north the mean position sets up in determining the weather here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 After yesterday's 80+ temp. Seattle is already at 9 days above 80 and we average 25. Should be almost halfway there after this weekend and summer is still 20 days away. It won't shock me if Seattle sees fewer 80+ days in Aug/Sep than May/June this year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Browsing the 12Z GFS... even though it caved to the ECMWF it still does not really show any meaningful rain through 300 hours for anywhere except the far NW interior and BC. Everything is just a little too far north. The ECMWF trended that way as well on the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 It won't shock me if Seattle sees fewer 80+ days in Aug/Sep than May/June this year. I agree. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 The GFS and Canadian are really close at 240 hours. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif But this pattern does not really produce strong onshore flow or rain here. Seems like it would. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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