May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moot point. Andrew had a lot of mutton over the holidays this year.

 

I actually have a new sheep. So a total of 3 now. The grass is doing pretty well right now. If the heat doesn't last to long we'll be fine. Hoping for an early fall/short summer this year. 

[Phil]

How about the 00Z Canadian? Seems like sort of a compromise?

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

I don't know yet, the maps I use for mass and momentum fluxes haven't updated. Usually lags by an hour.

[Timmy Supercell]

May 2016 lacked

 

05/09 (31), 05/26 (32), and 05/28 (30) were all of the freezing or colder lows this May. That was 1 occurrence in a 14 day period where it averages 35 degrees.

 

Now onto avg High, Low, and Mean. Not a whole lot warmer than a typical May on all categories. Avg High of 67.7 (+2.4) (16th warmest) this month, avg Low of 38.1 (+1.4) (22nd warmest), and Mean of 52.9 (+1.9) (18th warmest).

 

There were many highs in the 60's, few in the 50's and even one high of 42 on 05/20 with all of the hill-tops covered in snow, rain all day in K-Falls. If it weren't for the latest heat wave occurring in the last few days of May I would have come a bit closer to a normal May.

 

Now onto June!! What will it be like? Will I add more t'storm days to my 9 I currently have?? Makes me wonder if I'll get an earth-shattering 30-35 days in 2016....  I'm almost matching a normal number of 12 t'storm days on a typical year in Klamath Falls (1980-2015) and I barely just started my storm season.

[Phil]

Major shift in the bias-corrected 00z GEFS towards the 12z EPS solution in the 11-15 day, over the US. Still differences over the Pacific, but they're getting closer.

[Phil]

The 00z GEFS just completely caved to the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

The 00z GEFS just completely caved to the ECMWF.

 

 

That was obvious for some time.   

[Bryant]

That was obvious for some time.

Nothing is obvious in LR forecasting

[TT-SEA]

Nothing is obvious in LR forecasting

 

 

ECMWF usually wins.

[Phil]

Edit: The 00z ECMWF is similar to its 12z run on the large scale, actually cooler aloft by day8 with a stronger and more consolidated vorticity maximum over the NEPAC/AK.

[BLI snowman]

Definitely looking like it could be a historically hot day on Sunday. 22c 850mb temps with light offshore flow is no joke for early June. 

[TT-SEA]

The 00z ECMWF is very similar to its 12z run overall, actually cooler by day 8.

 

Actually warmer on day 6 and 7 for us here.   

 

I have not seen day 8 yet.

 

Next Monday was shown to be around 70 at SEA on the 12Z run... but its around 80 on the 00Z run.

[Phil]

Actually warmer on day 6 and 7 for us here.

 

I have not seen day 8 yet.

 

Next Monday was shown to be around 70 at SEA on the 12Z run... but its around 80 on the 00Z run.

I have it through day 10. Looks very sensible to me overall.

 

Warmer on days 6/7, cooler on day8, similar day 9, warmer day 10 at 800mb. More variability as the vorticity is more concentrated a bit NW.

[TT-SEA]

I have it through day 10. Looks very sensible to me overall.

 

 

Yes... but warmer than the 12Z run.   

 

Just using the 240 hour frame (which I know is 12 hours different):

 

12Z run:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls05/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls05-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-g3IYH_.png

 

 

00Z run:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-YMPbZw.png

[TT-SEA]

Still seems poised to turn troughy after day 10... but backing off a little on this run with the timing.

[Phil]

It's really just a more concentrated vorticity maximum, due to the weaker cyclone at the pole. Differences in the long run will be negligible.

[Phil]

Either way, compared to the GEFS, the ECMWF and CMC have both been models of consistency (no pun intended there).

[TT-SEA]

It's really just a more concentrated vorticity maximum, due to the weaker cyclone at the pole. Differences in the long run will be negligible.

 

 

Right... but it might back off on intensity as well.    That seems to be pretty common lately even in the ECMWF.

[Phil]

Right... but it might back off on intensity as well. That seems to be pretty common lately even in the ECMWF.

I don't care about intensity as much as I do large scale wave orientation, or in other words, the pattern. If anything, this run looks stronger with the incoming jet/vorticity.

[TT-SEA]

Just for fun... here is the ECMWF from 10 days ago for this morning.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-VLNLIz.png

 

 

 

And here was the actual map this morning...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-idyn8t.png

[Phil]

So, I'll take it you're siding with the GFS, then?

 

For the record, I'm not forecasting a gargantuan trough or anything of the sort. Just a transition into typical troughing following the jet extension.

[TT-SEA]

So, I'll take it you're siding with the GFS, then?

For the record, I'm not forecasting a gargantuan trough or anything of the sort. Just a transition into typical troughing following the jet extension.

Not siding with any model. But you have to look at model tendencies as well. No model will be totally right at 240 hours. The ECMWF will probably be closest. But there could big differences in our weather with small changes.

[Phil]

Not siding with any model. But you have to look at model tendencies as well. No model will be totally right at 240 hours. The ECMWF will probably be closest. But there could big differences in our weather with small changes.

Gotcha, I agree.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely looking like it could be a historically hot day on Sunday. 22c 850mb temps with light offshore flow is no joke for early June.

 

FWIW... it peaked at 94 in Portland in early June of 1889 after a warm spring and wet, troughy period in the middle of May.   With a Nino crashing into a Nina in June of 1889 and solar activity close to zero.   

 

There is hope for January!   

[Jesse]

Not siding with any model. But you have to look at model tendencies as well. No model will be totally right at 240 hours. The ECMWF will probably be closest. But there could big differences in our weather with small changes.

The Euro ensembles were a lot troughier than the operational. They have been steadfast.

[TT-SEA]

The Euro ensembles were a lot troughier than the operational. They have been steadfast.

I was going to just post that.

 

Side note... when the trough is offshore the result is usually warmer with more sun breaks here than if the trough is centered just to our east during summer.

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-3O74f5.png

[Jesse]

I was going to just post that.

 

Side note... when the trough is offshore the result is usually warmer with more sun breaks here than if the trough is centered just to our east during summer.

 

 

There is enough westerly component to the flow and heights are low enough that that would be a fairly cloudy and cool, maybe wet, pattern at face value.

 

Not that it matters. Ten days out, which seems to be the only time scale you post maps of.

[TT-SEA]

There is enough westerly component to the flow and heights are low enough that that would be a fairly cloudy and cool, maybe wet, pattern at face value.

 

Not that it matters. Ten days out, which seems to be the only time scale you post maps of.

 

We are watching a period that has been 10-15 days out... Phil has been posting nothing but maps from that period.  

 

The next week is pretty much a given now.  

[TT-SEA]

Nice little rain event tomorrow ahead of the warm weekend.   Perfect timing to pick up some more rain.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_033_precip_p12.gif

[Phil]

I was going to just post that.

 

Side note... when the trough is offshore the result is usually warmer with more sun breaks here than if the trough is centered just to our east during summer.

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-3O74f5.png

More repetitive map posting on my part. Cooler than average by 3-7F in the 10-15 day range:

 

[TT-SEA]

More repetitive map posting on my part. Cooler than average by 3-7F in the 10-15 day range:

 

image.png

 

Side note... the colder anomalies are offshore with the trough position offshore.   

 

Also remember that the ECMWF and EPS showed this week to be colder than normal 10 days ago.      I fully expect the ridge to break down though.. that is inevitable.      

[TT-SEA]

I will also note that the 12Z GFS is running much more troughy in a week than its 00Z run.   

 

Its catching up!  

[Phil]

I will also note that the 12Z GFS is running much more troughy in a week than its 00Z run.

 

Its catching up!

Typical goofus. After how terribly it's performed here, that's what I'm gonna call it until it scores a coup of some kind.

[jcmcgaffey]

After yesterday's 80+ temp.  Seattle is already at 9 days above 80 and we average 25.  Should be almost halfway there after this weekend and summer is still 20 days away.

[Phil]

Side note... the colder anomalies are offshore with the trough position offshore.

 

Also remember that the ECMWF and EPS showed this week to be colder than normal 10 days ago. I fully expect the ridge to break down though.. that is inevitable.

It wouldn't surprise me if the coldest 850mb temperatures end up offshore, either. I wasn't arguing they'd be centered over your head.

[TT-SEA]

It wouldn't surprise me if the coldest 850mb temperatures end up offshore, either. I wasn't arguing they'd be centered over your head.

 

 

Very typical as we move into summer.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian for late next week.,,

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

 

The transition is clear now on all models.   It now comes down to how far north the mean position sets up in determining the weather here.

[Front Ranger]

After yesterday's 80+ temp.  Seattle is already at 9 days above 80 and we average 25.  Should be almost halfway there after this weekend and summer is still 20 days away.

 

It won't shock me if Seattle sees fewer 80+ days in Aug/Sep than May/June this year.

[TT-SEA]

Browsing the 12Z GFS... even though it caved to the ECMWF it still does not really show any meaningful rain through 300 hours for anywhere except the far NW interior and BC.   Everything is just a little too far north.    The ECMWF trended that way as well on the 00Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

It won't shock me if Seattle sees fewer 80+ days in Aug/Sep than May/June this year.

 

 

I agree.  

[TT-SEA]

The GFS and Canadian are really close at 240 hours.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

But this pattern does not really produce strong onshore flow or rain here.   Seems like it would.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_precip_p03.gif