May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Troughy June 10th-24th?

 

 

I think that is a good call.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 75% of the GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with the troughing offshore in 10 days.   

 

The models have really been struggling with this pattern as Phil mentioned.

[Jesse]

Looks like 75% of the GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with the troughing offshore in 10 days.   

 

The models have really been struggling with this pattern as Phil mentioned.

 

Probably because it's ten days away.

[TT-SEA]

Probably because it's ten days away.

 

 

No... there have been some crazy runs.   And models flipping back and forth between strong zonal flow and strong ridging.

 

Phil mentioned it as well... a very complicated and challenging pattern.

[Jesse]

Looks like 75% of the GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with the troughing offshore in 10 days.

 

The models have really been struggling with this pattern as Phil mentioned.

Most of the 12z ensembles seem to be more aggressive with the "crash" than the operational.

 

[TT-SEA]

Most of the 12z ensembles seem to be more aggressive with the "crash" than the operational.

 

image.png

 

 

Yeah... looks different at that level.

 

The ensemble mean never moves the trough inland though.  The operational 12Z GFS does in about 10 days.

 

Here is 300 hours:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f300.gif

[Jesse]

Yeah... looks different at that level.

 

The ensemble mean never moves the trough inland though.  The operational 12Z GFS does in about 10 days.

 

Here is 300 hours:

 

 

I prefer the other chart. Fairly cut and dry and less room for individual interpretation.

 

I would say 75% of the ensemble members actually look stronger than the operational at day 10. For whatever that is worth. Again it is day ten that we are hyperanalyzing.

[TT-SEA]

I prefer the other chart. Fairly cut and dry and less room for individual interpretation.

 

I would say 75% of the ensemble members actually look stronger than the operational at day 10.

 

 

OK.   

 

The ensemble mean pattern is fairly compelling as well.  

[Jesse]

OK.   

 

The ensemble mean pattern is fairly compelling as well.  

 

I don't know where you got the 75% number looking at that, though. 

 

Like I said, too much room for individual interpretation/extrapolation.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know where you got the 75% number looking at that, though. 

 

Like I said, too much room for individual interpretation/extrapolation.

 

 

By counting members that had the trough over us as opposed to offshore in the 10-15 day period.   

 

The ensemble mean map supports this as well.     

 

Different ways to look at it... there are probably reasons for both.   

[TT-SEA]

Good marine push on Thursday morning per the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

And a fair amount of rain for areas north of Olympia.    Also looks like highs in the 60s that day for everyone.   

[Jesse]

Good marine push on Thursday morning per the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

And a fair amount of rain for areas north of Olympia.    Also looks like highs in the 60s that day for everyone.   

 

The Wednesday/Thursday period has definitely been trending cooler.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF keeps things mostly in check with the dumbbell effect in ULL offshore through the run.

 

Energy on the west side pumps up the ridge here and then ends up breaking the ridge down a few days later. The cycle appears poised to repeat at day 10.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF keeps things mostly in check with the dumbbell effect in ULL offshore through the run.

 

Energy on the west side pumps up the ridge here and then end up breaking the ridge down a few days later. The cycle appears poised to repeat at day 10.

Ensemble mean will have the trough closer to us.

 

Euro op hasn't been progressive enough in the 7-10 day range for a while.

[TT-SEA]

Ensemble mean  will have the trough closer to us.

You should be out hiking. We are heading to the lake now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Cold PDO developing quickly.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomp.5.30.2016.gif

[Jesse]

You should be out hiking. We are heading to the lake now.

Camped on the Upper Lewis River Friday/Saturday.

 

I've been studying this morning. Calculus test tomorrow and Chemistry test Wednesday. :'(

 

Might go to the park later on. Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

Cold PDO developing quickly.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomp.5.30.2016.gif

This is a false statement. The PDO is primarily defined by the region in the North Pacific where you see that deep blue blob right now.

 

Blue blob there means WARM phase of PDO.

 

Red blob there means cold phase.

[Phil]

No... there have been some crazy runs. And models flipping back and forth between strong zonal flow and strong ridging.

 

Phil mentioned it as well... a very complicated and challenging pattern.

Yeah, but it looks like the ECMWF/EPS are handling it better than the GFS/GEFS, which have been horrific recently.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but it looks like the ECMWF/EPS are handling it better than the GFS/GEFS, which have been horrific recently.

Very true.

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF keeps things mostly in check with the dumbbell effect in ULL offshore through the run.

 

Energy on the west side pumps up the ridge here and then ends up breaking the ridge down a few days later. The cycle appears poised to repeat at day 10.

On the 12z ECMWF, that high westerly momentum integral over the North Pacific suggests that powerful 250mb jet will continue to plow into the PNW/Western Canada, rather than weaken, inducing the surface lows to retrograde/dumbbell away. Last night's 00z EPS mean and EPS control run both trended stronger with the NPAC jet extension/zonal flow, so we'll have to see if the 12z EPS holds, continues the trend, or reverses.

[Bryant]

This is a false statement. The PDO is primarily defined by the region in the North Pacific where you see that deep blue blob right now.

 

Blue blob there means WARM phase of PDO.

 

Red blob there means cold phase.

PDO is overrated

[Phil]

Yeah... looks different at that level.

 

The ensemble mean never moves the trough inland though. The operational 12Z GFS does in about 10 days.

 

Here is 300 hours:

 

 

The individual GEFS members are just all over the place. What a pathetic model.

 

At least the EPS members are somewhat consistent through day10. Some GEFS members are literally polar opposite to one another by day8.

[TT-SEA]

PDO is overrated

Maybe so... just explaining it.

 

It's the opposite of what you think looking at the map.

[Deweydog]

Cold PDO developing quickly.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomp.5.30.2016.gif

Cold hearted?

[Dan the Weatherman]

Agree, you guys deserve it more than anyone.

 

I read something on NOAA a few weeks ago stating that since 2014, Northwest North America has experienced the most persistent warm anomalies of any place on the globe, except the Arctic.

 

No doubt that is related to the drought plaguing CA and other nearby regions. The high pressure responsible for these anomalies has been one of the features blocking the storm track from reaching CA.

[Jesse]

No doubt that is related to the drought plaguing CA and other nearby regions. The high pressure responsible for these anomalies has been one of the features blocking the storm track from reaching CA.

 

I thought CA was only being plagued by a marine layer problem.

[TT-SEA]

Ensemble mean will have the trough closer to us.

 

Euro op hasn't been progressive enough in the 7-10 day range for a while.

 

 

Tough to tell... not a huge difference.      Personally, I like the ensemble mean image a little better.   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-hXhwul.png

[Phil]

For those who care.

 

The 12z EPS is actually weaker with the initial jet assault, instead morphs into a classic Niña/-PNA (NW flow) look, with a stable ridge well offshore (over/south of the Aleutians). Troughing is located over the GOA/PNW/Western Canada.

 

Still looks nothing like the GEFS, actually trended stronger with the PNW/Western Canada troughing during days 13-15.

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Nice view from Portland's Council Crest this afternoon.

 

[Phil]

I love model wars. Looks like the 18z GFS is digging its heels in, after the 12z ECMWF/EPS did the same. Will try to take the retrogression route to -PNA, which will take an additional week to do.

[Front Ranger]

Nice view from Portland's Council Crest this afternoon.

 

image.png

 

Those trees are really blocking the view of the city.

[Phil]

Well, the GEFS went towards the western trough/-PNA idea for mid/late June.

[Jesse]

Those trees are really blocking the view of the city.

At least you can still see the mountains.

[GHweatherChris]

Perfect day, hit a high of 73, still 71, temps over achieved a bit today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice day. High so far is 77 with a low of 34 degrees.

 

Weather trivia for May 30 in Klamath Falls in 1995. Heavy t'storm with 1.50" hail and a small tornado ripped the roof off a school district bus barn. Hail damaged local sugar beet fields. One of the few supercell occurrences down here. Not as common as say Pendleton or elsewhere in the Blue Mountain region, but a few do happen here.

 

Through my finds in the internet, large hail events are not rare for Klamath Falls and surrounding towns, nor are crop damages. In the late 80's there were a few large-scale crop losses totaling into the millions of $ dollars just to the east of the city. As well as 2.50" size hail in K-Falls on 06/30/1987 with funnel clouds observed.

[TT-SEA]

Great day.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS did some back-pedaling on the troughing in the mid and long range.