TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Your July blowtorch was based off of history as well...One year. Backed off in May when it was clearly not going to happen. I guess no adjustments are ever allowed even from two posts two months ago. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 So if SEA and PDX average below normal for the first half of July and above normal the second half will you give me credit for being right? If it's just SEA/PDX then it depends. If troughing resumes later in July after a 5-7 day period of ridging, then no I wouldn't. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 PDX has seen five 60+ lows this summer (three of which occurred during the early month heatwave) while last summer had seen 16 at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 I have actually been very accurate overall and have adjusted well. You just love to dimiss everything I say. And will mock me absolutely either way. So now you are forecasting a blowtorch July/August/September? Because that is what we had in 1998. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 One year. Backed off in May when it was clearly not going to happen. I guess no adjustments are ever allowed even from two posts two months ago. I thought 1998 was a great match? That July torched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 It has been here. Still is. The inside of your house doesn't count. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 So now you are forecasting a blowtorch July/August/September? Because that is what we had in 1998.http://barfblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/dart.jpg 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 http://barfblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/dart.jpg It is literally getting to the point where it's like trying to reason with a crazy person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 So now you are forecasting a blowtorch July/August/September? Because that is what we had in 1998.I made my forecast. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 I made my forecast. Could be time for some adjustments! How likely do you think a 1998 redux is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 It is literally getting to the point where it's like trying to reason with a crazy person.Too many "adjustments" to keep track of. Clinging to 1998 now suggests to me that's he's cracking and throwing all his chips in, hoping for an unlikely victory. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 It is literally getting to the point where it's like trying to reason with a crazy person.STFU. July 1-10 troughing is certainly happening. I was mocked for that just a few days ago. But keep bringing up some forecast from 2 months ago. I was right about this period while others were saying warmth through 7/10 or 15. And this sets us up nicely for the rest of summer as well in my opinion. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 STFU. July 1-10 troughing is certainly happening. I was mocked for that just a few days ago. But keep bringing up some forecast from 2 months ago. I was right about this period while others were saying warmth through 7/10 or 15. And this sets up nicely for the rest of summer as well in my opinion. That is your beef with someone else. I never mocked you for that. Anyhow, we are digressing. How likely do you think a 1998 redux is? I want some hard numbers that you won't be able to wiggle away from later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 That is your beef with someone else. I never mocked you for that. Anyhow, we are digressing. How likely do you think a 1998 redux is? I want some hard numbers that you won't be able to wiggle away from later.25% Seems more likely than a few weeks ago though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 25%Not so confident. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Not so confident.I know that year scares you very much. Darn Nino to Nina years. You want to mock me for being afraid of silly crap... I can do the same and it's all stupid as hell. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 I know that year scares you very much. Darn Nino to Nina years. You want to mock me for being afraid of silly crap... I can do the same and it's all stupid as hell.Not at all...just amusing to watch you flip flop. Bringing years up just because you think they might scare people doesn't do wonders for your forecasting street cred, fwiw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Not at all...just amusing to watch you flip flop.Bringing years up just because you think they might scare people doesn't do wonders for your forecasting street cred, fwiw.I can mention developments without flip- flopping. You act like we are talking about this in January. It been the top analog recently. Certainly on the short list of Nino to Nina years. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 I can mention developments without flip- flopping. You act like we are talking about this in January. It been the top analog recently. Certainly on the short list of Nino to Nina years. Probably because early July 1998 was troughy and it is troughy now. Where 1998 went by the second week of the month and where we look to be going could not look more different, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Probably because early July 1998 was troughy and it is troughy now. Where 1998 went by the second week of the month and where we look to be going could not look more different, though.OK. Crisis averted. You can sleep tonight! Whew. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Here's what I think is straightforward. Given we have two strong anticyclones forecasted, one over the NAM domain, the other over the Aleutian/WPO domain..what will the responsive tendency be in between these two entities (EPO domain)? Yup. Looks like a classic precursor pattern for a +EPO spike during the 2nd half of July. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 OK. Crisis averted. You can sleep tonight! Whew. Just talking facts. I think it is notable that you have talked about the possibility first half of July being close to average, below average, and above average (1998 redux?) all in the span of a 3-4 hour period this morning. The trifecta! Could be a forum forecasting first? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Just talking facts. I think it is notable that you have talked about the possibility first half of July being close to average, below average, and above average (1998 redux?) all in the span of a 3-4 hour period this morning. The trifecta! Could be a forum forecasting first?For PDX southward. Good frickin lord. 1998 has been on the analog list. Wow. Feel like I am in congressional hearing. Wow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 For PDX southward. Good frickin lord. 1998 has been on the analog list. Wow. Feel like I am in congressional hearing. Wow. Your inconsistency/dueling agendas is your problem and yours alone. Don't try to come off like you are god's gift to the forecasting world though, that's what gets you knocked on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Looks like the 12z EPS trended higher with offshore heights in the 11-15 day range, consistent with the trend on the 00z run. Slightly cooler in the PNW region overall. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Your inconsistency/dueling agendas is your problem and yours alone. Don't try to come off like you are god's gift to the forecasting world though, that's what gets you knocked on here. BS. I just think a tiny bit of credit is due for being mocked just last week about this period. But nope. Oh well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Overall not a huge shift either way, though. Does support the idea of a trough split offshore as ridging builds back over the NPAC, so that would favor another trough soon after. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Was pretty civil here for a couple days at least... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Just asking. Down boy. Seems odd you'd even mention it especially considering 20% of said period has already been at or a little above average. Incredulous. Sometimes common sense is king. -10f for the first 10 days of the month? Is this -30c Phil making a return appearance? Wager what? Take a chill pill. My timing might be slow (yet again), but my monthly temperature forecast will probably be better than yours. That's been terrible here all summer, FWIW. #TurnaroundTim would be a good hashtag here. No wiggling out of this one. Just pure peace and quiet. No semblance of arguing the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 SEA might not even hit 70 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Nice to see DPs dropping into the 40s this afternoon along with comfortable temps in the low 70s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 SEA might not even hit 70 today.71 here in Issaquah and sunny. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 71 here in Issaquah and sunny. What is the DP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Nice day. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 What is the DP?Probably 56 or 57. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 A forest fire less than an hours drive from me broke out about two hours ago, It's already at 4 hectares in size. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 A forest fire less than an hours drive from me broke out about two hours ago, It's already at 4 hectares in size.Stupid metrics. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 SEA might not even hit 70 today. I think there will be a big jump on the next reading... the clouds are just dissolving now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Latest update is 8 to 10 hectares... it was only 1 hectare not long ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2016 Report Share Posted July 3, 2016 Latest update is 8 to 10 hectares... it was only 1 hectare not long ago. So 20 acres? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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