July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Your July blowtorch was based off of history as well...

One year. Backed off in May when it was clearly not going to happen.

 

I guess no adjustments are ever allowed even from two posts two months ago.

[Phil]

So if SEA and PDX average below normal for the first half of July and above normal the second half will you give me credit for being right?

If it's just SEA/PDX then it depends. If troughing resumes later in July after a 5-7 day period of ridging, then no I wouldn't.

[Jesse]

PDX has seen five 60+ lows this summer (three of which occurred during the early month heatwave) while last summer had seen 16 at this point.

[Jesse]

I have actually been very accurate overall and have adjusted well. You just love to dimiss everything I say. And will mock me absolutely either way.

 

So now you are forecasting a blowtorch July/August/September? Because that is what we had in 1998.

[Jesse]

One year. Backed off in May when it was clearly not going to happen.

 

I guess no adjustments are ever allowed even from two posts two months ago.

 

I thought 1998 was a great match? That July torched.

[Jesse]

It has been here. Still is.

 

The inside of your house doesn't count.

[Phil]

So now you are forecasting a blowtorch July/August/September? Because that is what we had in 1998.

http://barfblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/dart.jpg

[Jesse]

http://barfblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/dart.jpg

 

It is literally getting to the point where it's like trying to reason with a crazy person.

[TT-SEA]

So now you are forecasting a blowtorch July/August/September? Because that is what we had in 1998.

I made my forecast.

[Jesse]

I made my forecast.

 

Could be time for some adjustments!

 

How likely do you think a 1998 redux is?

[Phil]

It is literally getting to the point where it's like trying to reason with a crazy person.

Too many "adjustments" to keep track of. Clinging to 1998 now suggests to me that's he's cracking and throwing all his chips in, hoping for an unlikely victory.

[TT-SEA]

It is literally getting to the point where it's like trying to reason with a crazy person.

STFU.

 

July 1-10 troughing is certainly happening. I was mocked for that just a few days ago. But keep bringing up some forecast from 2 months ago. I was right about this period while others were saying warmth through 7/10 or 15. And this sets us up nicely for the rest of summer as well in my opinion.

[Jesse]

STFU.

 

July 1-10 troughing is certainly happening. I was mocked for that just a few days ago. But keep bringing up some forecast from 2 months ago. I was right about this period while others were saying warmth through 7/10 or 15. And this sets up nicely for the rest of summer as well in my opinion.

 

That is your beef with someone else. I never mocked you for that.

 

Anyhow, we are digressing. How likely do you think a 1998 redux is? I want some hard numbers that you won't be able to wiggle away from later.

[TT-SEA]

That is your beef with someone else. I never mocked you for that.

 

Anyhow, we are digressing. How likely do you think a 1998 redux is? I want some hard numbers that you won't be able to wiggle away from later.

25%

 

Seems more likely than a few weeks ago though.

[Jesse]

25%

Not so confident.

[TT-SEA]

Not so confident.

I know that year scares you very much. Darn Nino to Nina years.

 

You want to mock me for being afraid of silly crap... I can do the same and it's all stupid as hell.

[Jesse]

I know that year scares you very much. Darn Nino to Nina years.

 

You want to mock me for being afraid of silly crap... I can do the same and it's all stupid as hell.

Not at all...just amusing to watch you flip flop.

 

Bringing years up just because you think they might scare people doesn't do wonders for your forecasting street cred, fwiw.

[TT-SEA]

Not at all...just amusing to watch you flip flop.

Bringing years up just because you think they might scare people doesn't do wonders for your forecasting street cred, fwiw.

I can mention developments without flip- flopping. You act like we are talking about this in January. It been the top analog recently. Certainly on the short list of Nino to Nina years.

[Jesse]

I can mention developments without flip- flopping. You act like we are talking about this in January. It been the top analog recently. Certainly on the short list of Nino to Nina years.

 

Probably because early July 1998 was troughy and it is troughy now. 

 

Where 1998 went by the second week of the month and where we look to be going could not look more different, though.

[TT-SEA]

Probably because early July 1998 was troughy and it is troughy now. 

 

Where 1998 went by the second week of the month and where we look to be going could not look more different, though.

OK. Crisis averted. You can sleep tonight! Whew.

[Phil]

Here's what I think is straightforward. Given we have two strong anticyclones forecasted, one over the NAM domain, the other over the Aleutian/WPO domain..what will the responsive tendency be in between these two entities (EPO domain)? Yup.

 

Looks like a classic precursor pattern for a +EPO spike during the 2nd half of July.

[Jesse]

OK. Crisis averted. You can sleep tonight! Whew.

 

Just talking facts. 

 

I think it is notable that you have talked about the possibility first half of July being close to average, below average, and above average (1998 redux?) all in the span of a 3-4 hour period this morning. The trifecta! Could be a forum forecasting first?

[TT-SEA]

Just talking facts. 

 

I think it is notable that you have talked about the possibility first half of July being close to average, below average, and above average (1998 redux?) all in the span of a 3-4 hour period this morning. The trifecta! Could be a forum forecasting first?

For PDX southward. Good frickin lord. 1998 has been on the analog list. Wow. Feel like I am in congressional hearing. Wow.

[Jesse]

For PDX southward. Good frickin lord. 1998 has been on the analog list. Wow. Feel like I am in congressional hearing. Wow.

 

Your inconsistency/dueling agendas is your problem and yours alone. 

 

Don't try to come off like you are god's gift to the forecasting world though, that's what gets you knocked on here.

[Phil]

Looks like the 12z EPS trended higher with offshore heights in the 11-15 day range, consistent with the trend on the 00z run. Slightly cooler in the PNW region overall.

[TT-SEA]

Your inconsistency/dueling agendas is your problem and yours alone.

 

Don't try to come off like you are god's gift to the forecasting world though, that's what gets you knocked on here.

BS.

 

I just think a tiny bit of credit is due for being mocked just last week about this period.

 

But nope. Oh well.

[Phil]

Overall not a huge shift either way, though. Does support the idea of a trough split offshore as ridging builds back over the NPAC, so that would favor another trough soon after.

[Deweydog]

Was pretty civil here for a couple days at least...

[Jesse]

Just asking.

 

Down boy.

 

Seems odd you'd even mention it especially considering 20% of said period has already been at or a little above average. Incredulous.

 

Sometimes common sense is king.

 

 

-10f for the first 10 days of the month?

 

Is this -30c Phil making a return appearance?

 

 

Wager what? Take a chill pill.

 

 

My timing might be slow (yet again), but my monthly temperature forecast will probably be better than yours.

 

 

That's been terrible here all summer, FWIW.

 

#TurnaroundTim would be a good hashtag here. No wiggling out of this one.

 

Just pure peace and quiet. No semblance of arguing the last few days.

[epiceast]

SEA might not even hit 70 today.

[Jesse]

Nice to see DPs dropping into the 40s this afternoon along with comfortable temps in the low 70s.

[TT-SEA]

SEA might not even hit 70 today.

71 here in Issaquah and sunny.

[Jesse]

71 here in Issaquah and sunny.

 

What is the DP?

[Deweydog]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

What is the DP?

Probably 56 or 57.

[stuffradio]

A forest fire less than an hours drive from me broke out about two hours ago, It's already at 4 hectares in size.

[Deweydog]

A forest fire less than an hours drive from me broke out about two hours ago, It's already at 4 hectares in size.

Stupid metrics.

[TT-SEA]

SEA might not even hit 70 today.

 

I think there will be a big jump on the next reading... the clouds are just dissolving now.

[stuffradio]

Latest update is 8 to 10 hectares... it was only 1 hectare not long ago.

[TT-SEA]

Latest update is 8 to 10 hectares... it was only 1 hectare not long ago.

 

So 20 acres?