July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I think you are misreading the situation for the PNW.

 

I don't think the troughing will be dominant or deep after the weekend system. Maybe through August and into September. This kind of troughing during the first half of July makes that even more likely.

This makes no sense, because I didn't mention "deep troughing" in that post. All I said was height were/are primed to rise offshore once again in mid/late July, based on the physical realities of the situation.

 

If you're going to argue against high heights over the NPAC, you'd better have a good reason for it.

[TT-SEA]

This makes no sense, because I didn't mention "deep troughing" in that post. All I said was height were/are primed to rise offshore once again in mid/late July, based on the physical realities of the situation.

 

If you're going to argue against high heights over the NPAC, you'd better have a good reason for it.

Nope... not arguing against that. Just that the result here will be nothing like the early July troughing.

[Phil]

Nope... not arguing against that. Just that the result here will be nothing like the early July troughing.

I can't disagree with this, I guess. Too vague.

 

I suspect there will be a brief reprieve in the deeper troughing (poleward AAM propagation..has to go somewhere), but persistent ridging will probably be hard to come by, and more troughing is likely later in the month.

[Phil]

Beautiful retrogression now showing up in the d11-15 00z EPS. It now has troughing resuming by day 13-14, temperatures never really warm above average through the run.

[Deweydog]

Think dry thoughts!

 

The Sahara, martinis, British humor, Hillary Clinton....

You need next weekend to be dry? A Sanders' supporter reunion at Champoeg State Park?

[Jesse]

You need next weekend to be dry? A Sanders' supporter reunion at Champoeg State Park?

I was trying to help you. Hoping for something cool and wet myself.

[MossMan]

Just got out on the lake this morning to do a little quiet me time fishing...and the PSCZ decides to join me. That and some moron decides to light an M-80 at 6:30am. I'm going back to bed.

[Jesse]

Getting ready to do a hike up above the marine layer to an old lookout tower this morning, then back in town later this afternoon for fireworks time!

[Jesse]

I noticed BLI got almost .20" of needed rain overnight. Anything on Vancouver Island or in the Fraser Valley?

[ShawniganLake]

I noticed BLI got almost .20" of needed rain overnight. Anything on Vancouver Island or in the Fraser Valley?

No rain here.  Looks like a few hundredths out in the fraser valley 

[stuffradio]

I noticed BLI got almost .20" of needed rain overnight. Anything on Vancouver Island or in the Fraser Valley?

It's been drizzling today.

[Deweydog]

I was trying to help you. Hoping for something cool and wet myself.

I suppose a little rain would help puncuate the somber nature of the event.

[Guest Winterdog]

Just got out on the lake this morning to do a little quiet me time fishing...and the PSCZ decides to join me. That and some moron decides to light an M-80 at 6:30am. I'm going back to bed.

I was going to "like" this post but I feel badly that your fishing time was ruined. It's drizzling heavily here adding to the 1/3 inch in the cup since Saturday.

[snow_wizard]

Thicknesses drop below 546 next weekend on the 12z GFS.  Unquestionably much below normal!

[Kayla]

12z GFS says Portland's July 1983 2.68" of rainfall record is in jeopardy...

[stuffradio]

It's raining harder here now. Also there's this

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/07/july-4th-weather-and-coolest-early.html

[Front Ranger]

Sunny and a very pleasant 68 with a breeze here in southern OR. Happy 240, America!

[Phil]

12z ECMWF calls off the warm-up, keeps troughing and below average temperatures in place through d10. Still priming for offshore height rises.

[stuffradio]

 

splillo

QBO still in process of shifting nearly 180 degrees out of phase from the oscillation we've observed for decades https://t.co/VCtgcN1HQv

04/07/16 12:17 pm

 

  splillo

This is showing up in all reanalysis datasets. Just about a long enough signal to call this a major re-alignment of the QBO

04/07/16 12:19 pm

 

  splillo

Re-alignment of QBO phase has major implications for any long range model guidance using a prescribed QBO

04/07/16 12:22 pm

What does this mean for winter? Snow in the lowlands?

[Phil]

splillo

QBO still in process of shifting nearly 180 degrees out of phase from the oscillation we've observed for decades https://t.co/VCtgcN1HQv

04/07/16 12:17 pm

splillo

This is showing up in all reanalysis datasets. Just about a long enough signal to call this a major re-alignment of the QBO

04/07/16 12:19 pm

splillo

Re-alignment of QBO phase has major implications for any long range model guidance using a prescribed QBO

04/07/16 12:22 pm

What does this mean for winter? Snow in the lowlands?

Long story short, in this case it means another +QBO winter, which in La Niña favors stronger NPAC blocking. Very, very interesting stuff ongoing right now. Not just with the QBO, either.

 

We're now observing the most anomalous -IOD/-AMO circulations/SSTA signatures (relative to global average) in several decades. I guess some of this isn't surprising given we're on the cusp of several multidecadal base state flips, QBO aside.

 

Also FWIW, solar cycle 24 appears to be collapsing with high polar field asymmetry, which is somewhat unusual considering that weak solar cycles are typically longer in duration. Could mean a number of things, depending on how you interpret it.

 

Will be fun to watch things develop going forward.

[snow_wizard]

Long story short, in this case it means another +QBO winter, which in La Niña favors stronger NPAC blocking. Very, very interesting stuff ongoing right now. Not just with the QBO, either.

 

We're now observing the most anomalous -IOD/-AMO circulations/SSTA signatures (relative to global average) in several decades. I guess some of this isn't surprising given we're on the cusp of several multidecadal base state flips, QBO aside.

 

Also FWIW, solar cycle 24 appears to be collapsing with high polar field asymmetry, which is somewhat unusual considering that weak solar cycles are typically longer in duration. Could mean a number of things, depending on how you interpret it.

 

Will be fun to watch things develop going forward.

 

Very exciting times indeed.  Some of these developments could have major implications and could easily mean a much overdue regime shift for the West.  The solar is going to be most interesting to monitor.  Assuming we are still 3 to 4 years from the minimum we could easily be looking at Dalton minimum type numbers going forward.  The most exciting possibility is that in spite of the high asymmetry we are still years from solar min.  Apparently the asymmetry is the most extreme witnessed in the modern era by quite a margin.

[snow_wizard]

I plan on doing a post tonight or tomorrow which illustrates the past 3 solar minimums have brought the coldest and or snowiest winters to the NW since we transitioned out of the cold phase after 1975.  Pretty compelling stuff!

[TT-SEA]

On Lake Couer D'Alene... packed restaurant patio at Rockford Bay. Waiting to check into our house rental. Absolutely gorgeous here... 75 and mostly sunny. Could not be nicer. Awesome 4th of July.

[MossMan]

Ugly day! Off and on sprinkles still and about 55 degrees. Yuck.

[TT-SEA]

Ugly day! Off and on sprinkles still and about 55 degrees. Yuck.

I would send a pic of the scene here but it would make you mad.

[ShawniganLake]

Ugly day! Off and on sprinkles still and about 55 degrees. Yuck.

Sunny and 71 here. I'll see if I can send it down your way.

[Jesse]

I suppose a little rain would help puncuate the somber nature of the event.

Aw, cheer up. Even though it is arguably the most boring sport to watch/play, I'm sure it won't be THAT bad.

[Jesse]

About the most perfect 4th of July weather one could ask for today.

[Jesse]

Long story short, in this case it means another +QBO winter, which in La Niña favors stronger NPAC blocking. Very, very interesting stuff ongoing right now. Not just with the QBO, either.

 

We're now observing the most anomalous -IOD/-AMO circulations/SSTA signatures (relative to global average) in several decades. I guess some of this isn't surprising given we're on the cusp of several multidecadal base state flips, QBO aside.

 

Also FWIW, solar cycle 24 appears to be collapsing with high polar field asymmetry, which is somewhat unusual considering that weak solar cycles are typically longer in duration. Could mean a number of things, depending on how you interpret it.

 

Will be fun to watch things develop going forward.

LIA redux for the PNW?

[snow_wizard]

LIA redux for the PNW?

 

We can always hope!

 

In all seriousness with the post El Nino backlash in combination with the extraordinary solar minimum that is unfolding we could be in for it.  The QBO is a huge wildcard due to the fact the extreme negative phases in that index over the past few decades have come at the same time as our January woes.  A major shakeup with the QBO could be part of what we need to finally move on.

[Phil]

LIA redux for the PNW?

Mayyybe...

[Deweydog]

Aw, cheer up. Even though it is arguably the most boring sport to watch/play, I'm sure it won't be THAT bad.

Bernie don't know baseball.

[stuffradio]

I'll be interested to see tomorrow what this rain amount will be. Today I got .15" before 5PM. I'm interested to see what I will get compared to last July. There's one thing for sure though, there are no drought worries!

[Phil]

00z GFS caught onto the retrogression in the long range.

[ShawniganLake]

I'll be interested to see tomorrow what this rain amount will be. Today I got .15" before 5PM. I'm interested to see what I will get compared to last July. There's one thing for sure though, there are no drought worries!

It is rainy over there? Totally cleared out this afternoon over here.

[stuffradio]

It is rainy over there? Totally cleared out this afternoon over here.

It's pouring rain right now. Maybe not pouring, but it's raining steadily. It was raining harder a couple hours ago and even almost pouring at some points. It feels like winter right now.

[Jesse]

It is rainy over there? Totally cleared out this afternoon over here.

I was gonna say. Aren't you guys still in a stage four drought?

[Jesse]

High of 70 at PDX. Chilliest Fourth of July in 6 years.

 

Decent call.

[stuffradio]

I was gonna say. Aren't you guys still in a stage four drought?

The weather is much different. It rains lots here, and it's much drier there. It's also much drier only about 30 minutes away from me. I think it's because of the mountains being close to me that I get much more rain.

[ShawniganLake]

I was gonna say. Aren't you guys still in a stage four drought?

It's mostly an island issue for now. Sounds like the Haida Gwaii up north is also starting to see issues with low water.